Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 2.43 | $0.930 | $2.26 | Feb 11, 2025 |
 |
| buy |
| 4.24 |
| $0.870 |
| $3.69 |
| Feb 11, 2025 |
 Will the highest temperature in London be between 40-41°F on February 11?Yes | buy | 3.57 | $0.920 | $3.28 | Feb 11, 2025 |
 Will Gold hit $3,000 before March?Yes | buy | 4.49 | $0.730 | $3.28 | Feb 11, 2025 |
 Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?Yes | buy | 3.22 | $0.740 | $2.38 | Feb 11, 2025 |
 Will 50-100k federal employees accept the buyout?Yes | buy | 3.37 | $0.700 | $2.36 | Feb 11, 2025 |
 Tom Holland and Zendaya engaged in 2025?Yes | buy | 1.01 | $0.995 | $1 | Jan 7, 2025 |
 Is the Cybertruck manifesto real?Yes | buy | 1.41 | $0.910 | $1.28 | Jan 7, 2025 |
 Trump Cabinet confirmation on Day 1?Yes | buy | 1.62 | $0.840 | $1.36 | Dec 11, 2024 |
 Will Solana hit $200 in December?Yes | buy | 2.3 | $0.670 | $1.54 | Dec 11, 2024 |
 Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024?Yes | buy | 1.32 | $0.960 | $1.27 | Dec 11, 2024 |
 Will Ethereum hit $3,300 in December?No | buy | 1.04 | $0.500 | $0.52 | Dec 11, 2024 |
 Trump vs. Boden: First to 1BTrump | buy | 3.47 | $0.530 | $1.84 | Nov 26, 2024 |
 Ripple above $1.46 on November 29?No | buy | 1.11 | $0.700 | $0.78 | Nov 26, 2024 |
 German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?Yes | buy | 1.44 | $0.770 | $1.11 | Nov 26, 2024 |
 Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?No | buy | 1.2 | $0.600 | $0.72 | Nov 26, 2024 |
 No Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?Yes | buy | 1.18 | $0.850 | $1 | Nov 13, 2024 |
 SpaceX Starship launch by Nov 18?Yes | buy | 1.41 | $0.710 | $1 | Nov 13, 2024 |
 Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the AFC West?Yes | sell | 1.28 | $0.942 | $1.21 | Nov 13, 2024 |
 Will 538 correctly call the Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 1.72 | $0.580 | $1 | Sep 20, 2024 |
 Trump eligible to vote in the election?Yes | buy | 1.06 | $0.940 | $1 | Sep 20, 2024 |
| Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the AFC West?Yes | buy | 1.28 | $0.780 | $1 | Sep 20, 2024 |
| Will 538 correctly call the Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 1.72 | $0.580 | $1 | Sep 20, 2024 |
 Will Trump lead in RCP on Sept 27?Yes | buy | 46 | $0.005 | $0.23 | Sep 20, 2024 |
 Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction?Yes | buy | 1.1 | $0.906 | $1 | Aug 24, 2024 |
 Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 1.61 | $0.620 | $1 | Aug 24, 2024 |
 Will a candidate from another party win Virginia Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 150 | $0.003 | $0.45 | Aug 24, 2024 |
 Will Kamala's DNC speech has between 23m and 25m viewers?Yes | buy | 350 | $0.001 | $0.35 | Aug 24, 2024 |
 Will Kamala Harris drop out in August?Yes | buy | 96.67 | $0.003 | $0.29 | Aug 24, 2024 |
 Fed rate cut by September 18?Yes | buy | 1.03 | $0.972 | $1 | Aug 24, 2024 |
 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, D HouseYes | buy | 52 | $0.005 | $0.26 | Aug 24, 2024 |
 Will Bernie Sanders be the Democratic Presidential Nominee?Yes | buy | 10.8K | $0.001 | $10.8 | Aug 2, 2024 |
 Will Mark Cuban be the Democratic Presidential Nominee?Yes | buy | 11.4K | $0.001 | $11.4 | Aug 2, 2024 |
 Biden resigns from presidency by August 31?Yes | buy | 5.53 | $0.038 | $0.21 | Aug 2, 2024 |
 Will Gavin Newsom win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 250 | $0.002 | $0.5 | Aug 2, 2024 |
 Will George Mills (GBR) win Gold in 1500m?Yes | buy | 24 | $0.010 | $0.24 | Aug 2, 2024 |
 Will the Director of FBI be fired/resign?Yes | buy | 4.2 | $0.050 | $0.21 | Aug 2, 2024 |
 Will Israel invade Lebanon by Friday?Yes | buy | 18.57 | $0.028 | $0.52 | Aug 2, 2024 |
 Biden nominated before Democratic convention?Yes | buy | 105 | $0.002 | $0.21 | Aug 2, 2024 |
 Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024?Yes | buy | 4 | $0.090 | $0.36 | Aug 2, 2024 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2024 meeting?Yes | buy | 42 | $0.005 | $0.21 | Aug 2, 2024 |
 Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 46 | $0.005 | $0.23 | Aug 2, 2024 |
 Will a Republican win North Carolina Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 1.35 | $0.690 | $0.93 | Aug 2, 2024 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?Yes | sell | 1.29 | $0.740 | $0.95 | Aug 2, 2024 |
| Will a Democrat win New York Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 1.05 | $0.940 | $0.99 | Aug 2, 2024 |
| Will a Democrat win Maine Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 1.26 | $0.780 | $0.98 | Aug 2, 2024 |
| Will a Democrat win Colorado Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 1.11 | $0.890 | $0.99 | Aug 2, 2024 |
| Will a Democrat win New Jersey Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 1.11 | $0.900 | $1 | Aug 2, 2024 |
 Trump vs. Biden: Staircase OlympicsTrump | buy | 1.35 | $0.740 | $1 | Jul 29, 2024 |
| Will a Democrat win New Jersey Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 1.11 | $0.900 | $1 | Jul 29, 2024 |