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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 53.57 | $0.280 | $15 | Apr 21, 2026 |
|
| buy |
| 83.33 |
| $0.060 |
| $5 |
| Apr 21, 2026 |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?Yes | buy | 41.67 | $0.120 | $5 | Apr 21, 2026 |
 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?No | buy | 27.89 | $0.700 | $19.52 | Apr 8, 2026 |
 Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?No | buy | 17.24 | $0.870 | $15 | Apr 8, 2026 |
 Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?No | sell | 76.92 | $0.030 | $2.31 | Apr 7, 2026 |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Yes | buy | 62.62 | $0.639 | $40 | Apr 7, 2026 |
 Will Powell say "War" during April press conference?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.500 | $20 | Apr 7, 2026 |
 Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?Yes | buy | 27.78 | $0.540 | $15 | Apr 7, 2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?No | buy | 76.92 | $0.390 | $30 | Apr 7, 2026 |
 US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?No | sell | 25.26 | $0.500 | $12.63 | Apr 2, 2026 |
 Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?Yes | buy | 42.43 | $0.470 | $19.94 | Mar 16, 2026 |
 US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?Yes | buy | 40.54 | $0.370 | $15 | Mar 16, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Too Big to Rig" this week? (March 22)No | buy | 31.75 | $0.630 | $20 | Mar 16, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Khamenei" this week? (March 22)Yes | buy | 51.28 | $0.390 | $20 | Mar 16, 2026 |
 Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?No | sell | 79.73 | $0.940 | $74.95 | Mar 16, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?No | buy | 25.27 | $0.820 | $20.72 | Mar 14, 2026 |
 Will another country strike Iran by March 31?No | buy | 32.47 | $0.770 | $25 | Mar 14, 2026 |
 Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 41.0 on March 13, 2026?Yes | buy | 35.71 | $0.420 | $15 | Mar 13, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Karoline Leavitt" during Women's History Month event?Yes | buy | 17.59 | $0.800 | $14.07 | Mar 12, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Beautiful" 10+ times during Women's History Month event?Yes | buy | 25 | $0.600 | $15 | Mar 12, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during Women's History Month event?No | buy | 46.88 | $0.320 | $15 | Mar 12, 2026 |
 Will Clavicular cry on stream by May 1, 2026No | buy | 42.86 | $0.350 | $15 | Mar 12, 2026 |
 Iran leadership change by March 31?No | buy | 31.69 | $0.789 | $25 | Mar 12, 2026 |
| Will Trump's remarks not air?Yes | buy | 60 | $0.083 | $5 | Mar 12, 2026 |
 Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?Yes | sell | 300 | $0.100 | $30 | Mar 11, 2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?No | buy | 23.62 | $0.508 | $12 | Mar 11, 2026 |
 Will Ken Paxton drop out?No | buy | 23.53 | $0.850 | $20 | Mar 10, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Sucker" or "Loser" during Kentucky visit?Yes | buy | 24.51 | $0.816 | $20 | Mar 10, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Kentucky visit?No | buy | 34.56 | $0.868 | $30 | Mar 10, 2026 |
 Will Trump visit China by March 31?Yes | buy | 19.86 | $0.503 | $9.99 | Mar 9, 2026 |
 Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026?Yes | buy | 38.46 | $0.260 | $10 | Mar 9, 2026 |
 Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?No | buy | 50.17 | $0.350 | $17.56 | Mar 9, 2026 |
 Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?No | buy | 25.32 | $0.790 | $20 | Mar 9, 2026 |
 Will Trump talk to Reza Pahlavi in March?No | buy | 35.29 | $0.850 | $30 | Mar 9, 2026 |
 Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Yes | sell | 88.88 | $0.985 | $87.55 | Mar 9, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Stock market" this week? (March 15)Yes | buy | 22.3 | $0.810 | $18.06 | Mar 9, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "MAHA" or "Make America Healthy Again" during Ohio visit?Yes | buy | 29.44 | $0.679 | $20 | Mar 9, 2026 |
 Will Trump post "Epic Fury" on Truth Social this week? (March 15)Yes | buy | 44.52 | $0.566 | $25.18 | Mar 9, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" during Miami address?Yes | buy | 59.52 | $0.420 | $25 | Mar 9, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Transgender" during Miami address?Yes | buy | 59.71 | $0.502 | $30 | Mar 9, 2026 |
 Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?Yes | buy | 29.63 | $0.350 | $10.37 | Mar 6, 2026 |
 US forces enter Iran by March 31?No | buy | 45.45 | $0.660 | $30 | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.5 and 41.9 on March 6, 2026?Yes | buy | 33.3 | $0.450 | $15 | Mar 6, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Yes | buy | 44.44 | $0.450 | $20 | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?No | buy | 79.74 | $0.870 | $69.37 | Mar 3, 2026 |
 Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?Yes | buy | 48.39 | $0.620 | $30 | Mar 3, 2026 |
 Will US or Israel strike Iran first?Israel | buy | 77.52 | $0.516 | $40 | Mar 3, 2026 |
 Will Bill Clinton's remarks not air?Yes | sell | 163.97 | $0.850 | $139.37 | Mar 2, 2026 |
 Will Iran strike nine or more countries in March?Yes | buy | 36.61 | $0.782 | $28.64 | Mar 2, 2026 |