Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 12.3K | $0.011 | $135.28 | Apr 30, 2026 |
|
| sell |
| 5.46K |
| $0.014 |
| $76.23 |
| Apr 29, 2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 6.31K | $0.016 | $100.92 | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 78.16K | $0.006 | $438.49 | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 48.17K | $0.003 | $144.5 | Apr 29, 2026 |
 US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?No | sell | 0.12 | $0.998 | $0.12 | Apr 24, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Yes | sell | 34.32K | $0.001 | $34.32 | Apr 24, 2026 |
 Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?No | sell | 86.7 | $0.154 | $13.38 | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?Yes | buy | 1.68K | $0.413 | $696.36 | Apr 24, 2026 |
 Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?Yes | sell | 9.26K | $0.003 | $29.18 | Apr 24, 2026 |
 Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?No | sell | 7.25K | $0.011 | $81.83 | Apr 24, 2026 |
 Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?Yes | buy | 973.5 | $0.742 | $722.56 | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?Yes | buy | 797.57 | $0.627 | $500.15 | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?No | sell | 1.16K | $0.446 | $518 | Apr 24, 2026 |
 Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by June 30?No | sell | 178.98 | $0.010 | $1.79 | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?No | sell | 1.21K | $0.015 | $18.05 | Apr 24, 2026 |
 Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes | sell | 344.31K | $0.001 | $351.05 | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes | buy | 6.3K | $0.008 | $50.41 | Apr 24, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Yes | buy | 6.41K | $0.179 | $1.15K | Apr 23, 2026 |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Yes | sell | 380.77 | $0.008 | $3.05 | Apr 21, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?No | buy | 2.51K | $0.356 | $893.34 | Apr 21, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?No | buy | 3.23K | $0.290 | $935.33 | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 33K | $0.003 | $99 | Apr 21, 2026 |
 Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?No | sell | 20.29K | $0.001 | $20.29 | Apr 21, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Yes | buy | 10K | $0.050 | $500 | Apr 21, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Yes | buy | 3.56K | $0.060 | $213.61 | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?No | buy | 20.45K | $0.049 | $999.4 | Apr 21, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Yes | buy | 24.71K | $0.150 | $3.71K | Apr 21, 2026 |
 Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?Yes | sell | 2K | $0.150 | $299.83 | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 20K | $0.001 | $20 | Apr 19, 2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 38.91K | $0.002 | $77.82 | Apr 19, 2026 |
 Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?Yes | sell | 15.73K | $0.125 | $1.96K | Apr 17, 2026 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Yes | sell | 3.96K | $0.537 | $2.13K | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Yes | buy | 1.87K | $0.542 | $1.01K | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Yes | buy | 2.09K | $0.480 | $1K | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?Yes | buy | 15.16K | $0.117 | $1.77K | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?No | buy | 31.88 | $0.059 | $1.88 | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?No | buy | 19.71K | $0.061 | $1.2K | Apr 16, 2026 |
 Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Yes | sell | 0.59 | $0.420 | $0.25 | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Yes | sell | 8.81K | $0.500 | $4.41K | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Yes | buy | 4.17K | $0.478 | $1.99K | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 180K | $0.003 | $540 | Apr 15, 2026 |
 Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Yes | sell | 19.84K | $0.025 | $496.46 | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Yes | buy | 19.84K | $0.060 | $1.19K | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes | buy | 17.21K | $0.005 | $81.51 | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 4.77K | $0.022 | $103.55 | Apr 13, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Yes | sell | 21.48K | $0.326 | $7K | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Yes | sell | 4.48K | $0.207 | $926.32 | Apr 8, 2026 |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Yes | sell | 49.08K | $0.031 | $1.53K | Apr 7, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?No | sell | 10K | $0.008 | $77.98 | Apr 7, 2026 |