Analytics
Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 5.88 | $0.850 | $5.66 | +$0.66 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Yes | buy | 20.7 | $0.966 | $20 | Mar 1, 2026 |
|
| Yes |
| 76.92 |
| $0.130 |
| $2.96 |
| -$7.04 |
| buy |
| 20.55 |
| $0.973 |
| $20 |
| Feb 22, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No | buy | 30.77 | $0.975 | $30 | Feb 22, 2026 |
 Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes | buy | 3.7 | $0.810 | $3 | Feb 22, 2026 |
 Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?No | buy | 24.69 | $0.810 | $20 | Feb 22, 2026 |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?No | buy | 24.39 | $0.820 | $20 | Feb 22, 2026 |
 Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?No | buy | 22.9 | $0.873 | $20 | Feb 20, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No | buy | 21.28 | $0.940 | $20 | Feb 20, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No | buy | 15.59 | $0.962 | $15 | Feb 17, 2026 |
 Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes | buy | 10.53 | $0.950 | $10 | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes | buy | 76.92 | $0.130 | $10 | Jan 18, 2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 102.04 | $0.049 | $5 | Jan 18, 2026 |
 Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by January 31?No | sell | 28 | $0.810 | $22.68 | Jan 18, 2026 |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by January 31?No | buy | 28.74 | $0.870 | $25 | Jan 17, 2026 |
 Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?Yes | buy | 25.2 | $0.996 | $25.1 | Jan 13, 2026 |
 Maduro mugshot released by January 16?No | buy | 95.25 | $0.966 | $92 | Jan 11, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?No | buy | 6.33 | $0.790 | $5 | Jan 11, 2026 |
 Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?Yes | buy | 34.52 | $0.840 | $29 | Jan 10, 2026 |
| Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?Yes | buy | 36.68 | $0.736 | $27 | Jan 10, 2026 |
| Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?Yes | buy | 13.7 | $0.730 | $10 | Jan 10, 2026 |
 Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31?Yes | buy | 2.33 | $0.860 | $2 | Jan 9, 2026 |
 Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?No | buy | 10.32 | $0.969 | $10 | Jan 9, 2026 |
 Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?No | buy | 15.59 | $0.962 | $15 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Maduro mugshot released by January 16?No | buy | 5.26 | $0.950 | $5 | Jan 8, 2026 |
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 16.13 | $0.930 | $15 | Jan 8, 2026 |
 U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Friday?Yes | buy | 14.08 | $0.994 | $14 | Jan 7, 2026 |
 Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?Yes | buy | 2.5 | $0.400 | $1 | Jan 7, 2026 |
 Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Yes | buy | 8.06 | $0.620 | $5 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No | buy | 5.88 | $0.850 | $5 | Jan 7, 2026 |
 Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31?No | buy | 5.13 | $0.974 | $5 | Jan 7, 2026 |
 New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday?No | buy | 5.14 | $0.972 | $5 | Jan 7, 2026 |
 Will Saudi Arabia strike Yemen by January 31?Yes | buy | 5.26 | $0.950 | $5 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?No | buy | 1.09 | $0.917 | $1 | Jan 6, 2026 |
 Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?Yes | buy | 5.1 | $0.784 | $4 | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Maduro mugshot released by January 9?No | buy | 17.65 | $0.850 | $15 | Jan 5, 2026 |
 Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?No | buy | 6.41 | $0.780 | $5 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Maduro mugshot released by Monday?No | buy | 5.88 | $0.850 | $5 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Maduro mugshot released by Monday?No | buy | 4.17 | $0.720 | $3 | Jan 4, 2026 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 5.56 | $0.900 | $5 | Jan 4, 2026 |
| Will Saudi Arabia strike Yemen by January 31?Yes | buy | 10.43 | $0.959 | $10 | Jan 4, 2026 |
 Trump approval Up or Down this week?Up | buy | 6.49 | $0.770 | $5 | Jan 4, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 21.73 | $0.280 | $6.08 | Jan 4, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 21.74 | $0.230 | $5 | Jan 3, 2026 |
 Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?No | buy | 14.44 | $0.900 | $13 | Dec 30, 2025 |
 Jaguars vs. ColtsJaguars | buy | 7.46 | $0.670 | $5 | Dec 28, 2025 |
| Spread: Seahawks (-6.5)Seahawks | buy | 5.88 | $0.510 | $3 | Dec 28, 2025 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on December 28?No | buy | 11.39 | $0.878 | $10 | Dec 28, 2025 |
 Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?Yes | buy | 8.03 | $0.710 | $5.7 | Dec 25, 2025 |
 Epstein client list released by June 30?Yes | buy | 9.26 | $0.540 | $5 | Dec 24, 2025 |
| Epstein client list released in 2025?Yes | buy | 21.83 | $0.229 | $5 | Dec 24, 2025 |