Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?No | sell | 6.05 | $0.740 | $4.48 | Mar 2, 2026 |
|
| buy |
| 6.05 |
| $0.730 |
| $4.42 |
| Feb 16, 2026 |
 Israel strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No | buy | 5.48 | $0.964 | $5.28 | Jan 13, 2026 |
 Will Lionel Messi announce his retirement in 2025?No | buy | 1.54 | $0.998 | $1.54 | Dec 30, 2025 |
 Clarity Act signed into law in 2025?No | buy | 1.82 | $0.997 | $1.81 | Dec 30, 2025 |
 Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity in 2025?No | buy | 2.24 | $0.999 | $2.24 | Dec 30, 2025 |
 Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?Yes | buy | 5.65 | $0.949 | $5.36 | Dec 26, 2025 |
 MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?Yes | sell | 4.28 | $0.470 | $2.01 | Dec 18, 2025 |
 North Korea missile launch by November 30?No | buy | 2.58 | $0.930 | $2.4 | Nov 27, 2025 |
 US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?No | buy | 1.99 | $0.937 | $1.86 | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?No | buy | 1.6 | $0.870 | $1.39 | Oct 29, 2025 |
 Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?No | sell | 1.65 | $0.962 | $1.59 | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?No | buy | 1.66 | $0.850 | $1.41 | Oct 23, 2025 |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?Yes | buy | 4.28 | $0.920 | $3.94 | Oct 22, 2025 |
 North Korea missile launch by October 15?No | buy | 5.09 | $0.999 | $5.08 | Oct 15, 2025 |
 Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 10?No | buy | 1.3 | $0.976 | $1.27 | Oct 10, 2025 |
 Will Trump meet with Chuck Schumer by October 10?No | buy | 4.1 | $0.999 | $4.1 | Oct 10, 2025 |
 Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase September 30-October 6?No | buy | 1.05 | $0.999 | $1.05 | Oct 6, 2025 |
 "Trump Burger" owner deported by September 30?No | buy | 4.93 | $0.999 | $4.93 | Sep 26, 2025 |
 Jill Biden charged before September?No | buy | 4.93 | $0.996 | $4.91 | Aug 28, 2025 |
 Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet by August 23?No | buy | 7.07 | $0.999 | $7.06 | Aug 23, 2025 |
 Doge ETF approved by July 31?No | buy | 1.32 | $0.999 | $1.32 | Jul 31, 2025 |
 Will Russia capture Udachne before August?No | buy | 1.51 | $0.998 | $1.51 | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?Yes | buy | 13.14 | $0.880 | $11.56 | Jul 27, 2025 |
 Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?No | buy | 14.02 | $0.999 | $14.01 | Jul 25, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?No | buy | 11.53 | $0.998 | $11.51 | Jul 22, 2025 |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 15-21?Yes | buy | 11.71 | $0.992 | $11.62 | Jul 20, 2025 |
 Will Romania's court annul the presidential election?No | sell | 5.09 | $0.997 | $5.07 | Jul 18, 2025 |
 U.S. enacts stablecoin bill in 2025?Yes | buy | 6.8 | $0.999 | $6.79 | Jul 18, 2025 |
 Pump.fun market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?No | buy | 5.09 | $0.997 | $5.07 | Jul 15, 2025 |
| Pump.fun >$10B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?No | buy | 2.3 | $0.995 | $2.29 | Jul 15, 2025 |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 8-14?Yes | buy | 4.29 | $0.987 | $4.23 | Jul 13, 2025 |
 US x Iran ceasefire before August?No | buy | 2.99 | $0.987 | $2.95 | Jul 12, 2025 |
 Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30?Yes | buy | 1.29 | $0.969 | $1.25 | Jul 11, 2025 |
 Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting?No | sell | 10.93 | $0.996 | $10.89 | Jul 11, 2025 |
 Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before August?No | buy | 1.41 | $0.988 | $1.39 | Jul 11, 2025 |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?Yes | buy | 14.25 | $0.320 | $4.56 | Jul 6, 2025 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting?No | buy | 10.93 | $0.997 | $10.9 | Jul 4, 2025 |
 Will Israel invade Iran before July?No | buy | 1.6 | $0.996 | $1.59 | Jun 25, 2025 |
 Will Khamenei leave Iran before July?No | buy | 2.69 | $0.984 | $2.65 | Jun 25, 2025 |
 Major cyberattack on Iran in June?Yes | buy | 2.59 | $0.999 | $2.59 | Jun 24, 2025 |
 Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?Yes | buy | 6.68 | $0.985 | $6.58 | Jun 23, 2025 |
 Will ICC withdraw its arrest warrant against Netanyahu before July?No | buy | 1.26 | $0.995 | $1.25 | Jun 22, 2025 |
 Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?No | buy | 8.71 | $0.991 | $8.63 | Jun 12, 2025 |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?Yes | buy | 7.17 | $0.991 | $7.11 | Jun 8, 2025 |
 Will Trump apologize to Elon by Monday?No | buy | 3.02 | $0.981 | $2.96 | Jun 6, 2025 |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?Yes | buy | 1.03 | $0.994 | $1.02 | Jun 1, 2025 |
 Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before June?No | sell | 2.06 | $0.460 | $0.95 | May 29, 2025 |
 India-Pakistan declare war before June?No | buy | 1.28 | $0.994 | $1.27 | May 25, 2025 |
| Will Romania's court annul the presidential election?No | buy | 1.15 | $0.996 | $1.15 | May 24, 2025 |