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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31? | No | 141.6 | $0.492 | $85.67 | +$16.03 |
 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 0.28 | $0.570 | $0.16 | 54m ago |
|
| Yes |
| 54.33 |
| $0.565 |
| $39.94 |
| +$9.21 |
 Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | No | 68.27 | $0.510 | $39.26 | +$4.44 |
 Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | No | 49.74 | $0.700 | $34.07 | -$0.75 |
 Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 34.46 | $0.854 | $31.87 | +$2.46 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | No | 36.86 | $0.594 | $28.57 | +$6.68 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | No | 32.7 | $0.730 | $26 | +$2.12 |
 Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? | No | 28.32 | $0.842 | $23.65 | -$0.19 |
 Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? | No | 23.54 | $0.840 | $21.54 | +$1.77 |
 China ballistic missile launch by December 31? | No | 24.57 | $0.810 | $20.27 | +$0.37 |
 Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | No | 19.68 | $0.844 | $17.46 | +$0.84 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | No | 60.03 | $0.463 | $15.91 | -$11.9 |
 Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026? | No | 16.73 | $0.470 | $12.13 | +$4.27 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 20.92 | $0.500 | $11.4 | +$0.94 |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | No | 16.46 | $0.430 | $9.47 | +$2.39 |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 18.96 | $0.460 | $8.44 | -$0.28 |
| Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026? | No | 8.58 | $0.640 | $7.34 | +$1.84 |
 US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 99.44 | $0.090 | $5.47 | -$3.48 |
 Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? | Yes | 13.3 | $0.380 | $3.26 | -$1.8 |
 Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | No | 39.17 | $0.254 | $3.11 | -$6.84 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 14.22 | $0.480 | $2.77 | -$4.05 |
 Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | No | 2.18 | $0.430 | $1.92 | +$0.98 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 13.61 | $0.720 | $0.88 | -$8.92 |
 Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 0.19 | $0.870 | $0.17 | +$0 |
| sell |
| 0.12 |
| $0.570 |
| $0.07 |
| 4h ago |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 1.01 | $0.570 | $0.58 | 5h ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 18.96 | $0.460 | $8.72 | 12h ago |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 1.98 | $0.530 | $1.05 | 1d ago |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 12 | $0.330 | $3.96 | 1d ago |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?No | sell | 0.58 | $0.870 | $0.5 | 1d ago |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 2.3 | $0.480 | $1.1 | 5d ago |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?No | sell | 1.44 | $0.880 | $1.27 | 6d ago |
| China ballistic missile launch by December 31?No | buy | 24.57 | $0.810 | $19.9 | 6d ago |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 13.09 | $0.880 | $11.52 | 6d ago |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?No | sell | 7.73 | $0.880 | $6.8 | 6d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?Yes | sell | 8.32 | $0.480 | $3.99 | 6d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?Yes | buy | 29.24 | $0.500 | $14.62 | 6d ago |
| Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 1.67 | $0.680 | $1.14 | 7d ago |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 20.69 | $0.524 | $10.84 | 7d ago |
 Will Iran target Iraq by September 15, 2026?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.950 | $9.5 | 7d ago |
| Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?No | sell | 8.56 | $0.800 | $6.85 | 8d ago |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 0.01 | $0.590 | $0.01 | 8d ago |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 0.02 | $0.590 | $0.01 | 8d ago |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?No | sell | 9.75 | $0.870 | $8.48 | 8d ago |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 26.18 | $0.760 | $19.9 | 9d ago |
 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes | sell | 16.34 | $0.680 | $11.11 | 9d ago |
| Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?No | sell | 0.28 | $0.810 | $0.23 | 9d ago |
 US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?Yes | sell | 28.43 | $0.001 | $0.03 | 9d ago |
| Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?No | sell | 0.26 | $0.820 | $0.21 | 9d ago |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes | sell | 3.26 | $0.730 | $2.38 | 10d ago |
| Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?No | sell | 0.33 | $0.830 | $0.27 | 10d ago |
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?Yes | buy | 19.9 | $0.800 | $15.92 | 12d ago |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | sell | 23.97 | $0.870 | $20.85 | 12d ago |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 39.17 | $0.254 | $9.95 | 13d ago |
| Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?No | sell | 0.6 | $0.860 | $0.52 | 13d ago |
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?Yes | sell | 5.68 | $0.810 | $4.6 | 14d ago |
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?Yes | sell | 5.68 | $0.720 | $4.09 | 14d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes | sell | 5.68 | $0.360 | $2.04 | 15d ago |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 19.88 | $0.430 | $8.55 | 15d ago |
| Will Iran target Iraq by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 29.84 | $0.450 | $13.43 | 18d ago |
 Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 19.66 | $0.860 | $16.91 | 18d ago |
| Will Iran target Iraq by September 15, 2026?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.450 | $4.5 | 19d ago |
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?Yes | buy | 19.89 | $0.640 | $12.73 | 19d ago |
 Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes | sell | 29.14 | $0.826 | $24.07 | 20d ago |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes | sell | 0.08 | $0.826 | $0.07 | 20d ago |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes | buy | 19.6 | $0.680 | $13.33 | 20d ago |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes | sell | 6.99 | $0.826 | $5.77 | 20d ago |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | buy | 23.98 | $0.830 | $19.9 | 20d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 6.45 | $0.780 | $5.03 | 20d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 0.04 | $0.780 | $0.03 | 20d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 0.04 | $0.780 | $0.03 | 20d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 0.04 | $0.780 | $0.03 | 21d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 0.09 | $0.780 | $0.07 | 21d ago |