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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?No | buy | 1.12 | $0.999 | $1.12 | Dec 28, 2025 |
 |
| buy |
| 1.27 |
| $0.998 |
| $1.27 |
| Dec 28, 2025 |
 Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?No | buy | 1.38 | $0.994 | $1.37 | Dec 28, 2025 |
 Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?No | buy | 1.39 | $0.984 | $1.37 | Dec 28, 2025 |
 Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?Yes | buy | 1.71 | $0.976 | $1.67 | Dec 28, 2025 |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?No | buy | 1.26 | $0.999 | $1.26 | Dec 28, 2025 |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?No | buy | 1.29 | $0.998 | $1.29 | Dec 28, 2025 |
| Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?No | buy | 1.27 | $0.984 | $1.25 | Dec 28, 2025 |
| Will Google have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?Yes | buy | 1.57 | $0.977 | $1.53 | Dec 28, 2025 |
| Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?No | buy | 1.67 | $0.998 | $1.67 | Dec 28, 2025 |
| Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?No | buy | 1.65 | $0.998 | $1.65 | Dec 28, 2025 |
| Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?No | buy | 1.44 | $0.994 | $1.43 | Dec 28, 2025 |
| Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?No | buy | 1.45 | $0.984 | $1.43 | Dec 28, 2025 |
| Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?Yes | buy | 1.61 | $0.976 | $1.57 | Dec 28, 2025 |
 Bitcoin Up or Down on December 21?Down | buy | 296 | $0.500 | $148 | Dec 20, 2025 |
| Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31?No | buy | 1.26 | $0.996 | $1.25 | Oct 23, 2025 |
 Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31?No | buy | 1.34 | $0.996 | $1.33 | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31?No | buy | 1.27 | $0.995 | $1.26 | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Will Google have the best AI model on October 31?Yes | buy | 2.37 | $0.976 | $2.31 | Oct 23, 2025 |
 Will Apple be the most valuable company on October 31?No | buy | 1.31 | $0.995 | $1.3 | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31?Yes | buy | 2.46 | $0.976 | $2.4 | Oct 23, 2025 |
 Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?No | buy | 1.29 | $0.945 | $1.22 | Oct 23, 2025 |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Yes | buy | 2.15 | $0.931 | $2 | Oct 23, 2025 |
 Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?No | sell | 1.34 | $0.998 | $1.34 | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?No | sell | 2.6 | $0.984 | $2.56 | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Yes | buy | 1.77 | $0.992 | $1.76 | Sep 23, 2025 |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30?No | buy | 2.35 | $0.996 | $2.34 | Sep 23, 2025 |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30?No | buy | 2.12 | $0.994 | $2.11 | Sep 23, 2025 |
| Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?Yes | buy | 3.05 | $0.985 | $3 | Sep 23, 2025 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?No | buy | 1.35 | $0.995 | $1.34 | Sep 23, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?No | buy | 2.6 | $0.960 | $2.5 | Sep 23, 2025 |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31?No | buy | 1.56 | $0.964 | $1.5 | Aug 14, 2025 |
 Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on August 31?No | buy | 1.3 | $0.997 | $1.3 | Aug 14, 2025 |
| Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?No | buy | 3.62 | $0.968 | $3.5 | Aug 14, 2025 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Yes | buy | 3.11 | $0.965 | $3 | Aug 14, 2025 |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?No | buy | 3.28 | $0.977 | $3.2 | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?Yes | buy | 3.07 | $0.977 | $3 | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Yes | buy | 5.6 | $0.975 | $5.46 | Jun 28, 2025 |
 Fed rate hike in 2025?No | sell | 5 | $0.850 | $4.25 | May 27, 2025 |
 Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?Yes | buy | 5.08 | $0.984 | $5 | Apr 15, 2025 |
 Government coalition formed within 100 days of German election?Yes | sell | 5.1 | $0.983 | $5.01 | Apr 15, 2025 |
| Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?Yes | sell | 5.17 | $0.982 | $5.08 | Apr 15, 2025 |
| Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?Yes | buy | 5.18 | $0.966 | $5 | Mar 18, 2025 |
 Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated?Yes | buy | 575.47 | $0.021 | $12.08 | Nov 23, 2024 |
| Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated?Yes | buy | 575.24 | $0.021 | $12.08 | Nov 18, 2024 |
 Trump sentenced to no prison time?Yes | sell | 5.04 | $0.985 | $4.96 | Oct 29, 2024 |
 Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 3.67K | $0.337 | $1.24K | Oct 29, 2024 |
| Trump sentenced to no prison time?Yes | buy | 5.05 | $0.991 | $5 | Oct 29, 2024 |
 Harris-Walz Democratic ticket on election day?Yes | sell | 20.58 | $0.968 | $19.92 | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Harris-Walz Democratic ticket on election day?Yes | buy | 20.59 | $0.972 | $20.01 | Oct 14, 2024 |