Analytics
Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Yennefer of Vengerberg die during "The Witcher: Season 5"? | No | 92 | $0.500 | $16.56 | -$29.44 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes | sell | 83.97 | $0.020 | $1.68 | May 19, 2026 |
|
| No |
| 1.35 |
| $0.260 |
| $1.11 |
| +$0.76 |
 Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 236.71 | $0.008 | $0.36 | -$1.49 |
| sell |
| 197.17 |
| $0.072 |
| $14.25 |
| May 19, 2026 |
 Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 532.43 | $0.060 | $32.03 | May 19, 2026 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 66.07 | $0.070 | $4.62 | May 19, 2026 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 45 | $0.080 | $3.6 | May 19, 2026 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 621.71 | $0.080 | $49.74 | May 19, 2026 |
| Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026?No | buy | 496 | $0.020 | $9.92 | May 19, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?No | buy | 70 | $0.130 | $9.1 | May 19, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Yes | buy | 236.71 | $0.008 | $1.85 | May 19, 2026 |
| Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1460?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.800 | $16 | May 18, 2026 |
| Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 20?Yes | sell | 9 | $0.037 | $0.33 | May 18, 2026 |
| Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 18?Yes | sell | 100 | $0.005 | $0.5 | May 18, 2026 |
 Will "Honestly" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Yes | buy | 11.25 | $0.822 | $9.25 | May 18, 2026 |
| Will "Right" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Yes | buy | 6.25 | $0.840 | $5.25 | May 18, 2026 |
| Will "Crazy" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Yes | buy | 6.25 | $0.840 | $5.25 | May 18, 2026 |
| Will "Crazy" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.800 | $4 | May 18, 2026 |
| Will "Right" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.800 | $4 | May 18, 2026 |
| Will "Patreon" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Yes | buy | 19.58 | $0.847 | $16.58 | May 18, 2026 |
| Will "Actually" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Yes | buy | 26.07 | $0.832 | $21.69 | May 18, 2026 |
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.080 | $4 | May 18, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Blackwell" this week?Yes | sell | 39.29 | $0.010 | $0.39 | May 17, 2026 |
| Will Geralt of Rivia die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?No | sell | 77 | $0.200 | $15.4 | May 16, 2026 |
 Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 50 and 100 hours without failure?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.300 | $15 | May 14, 2026 |
 Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in May?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.080 | $4 | May 13, 2026 |
 Will "UFO" or "Alien" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?Yes | sell | 100 | $0.010 | $1 | May 13, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?Yes | buy | 10.97 | $0.570 | $6.25 | May 13, 2026 |
| Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?Yes | sell | 149.23 | $0.010 | $1.52 | May 13, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Hantavirus" this week?Yes | sell | 42.3 | $0.350 | $14.8 | May 13, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Hantavirus" this week?Yes | sell | 76 | $0.350 | $26.6 | May 13, 2026 |
| Will "Sweden" or "Swedish" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?No | buy | 14.76 | $0.710 | $10.48 | May 12, 2026 |
| Will "Sweden" or "Swedish" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?No | buy | 45.24 | $0.710 | $32.12 | May 12, 2026 |
| Will "Anthropic" or "Claude" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.720 | $14.4 | May 12, 2026 |
| Will "Sweden" or "Swedish" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?No | buy | 65 | $0.652 | $42.4 | May 12, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes | buy | 45 | $0.470 | $21.15 | May 12, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes | buy | 45 | $0.468 | $21.06 | May 12, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.460 | $2.3 | May 12, 2026 |
| Will "Sweden" or "Swedish" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Yes | buy | 20.53 | $0.550 | $11.29 | May 12, 2026 |
| Will "Anthropic" or "Claude" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Yes | buy | 20.16 | $0.640 | $12.9 | May 12, 2026 |
| Will "Anthropic" or "Claude" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Yes | buy | 120 | $0.700 | $83.96 | May 12, 2026 |
 Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day?Yes | buy | 38 | $0.286 | $10.88 | May 12, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Hantavirus" this week?Yes | buy | 83.14 | $0.550 | $45.73 | May 11, 2026 |
 Will the NYT front-page headlines say "UFO" or "Alien" this week?Yes | sell | 112.5 | $0.002 | $0.23 | May 10, 2026 |
| Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 13?Yes | buy | 202.01 | $0.002 | $0.4 | May 9, 2026 |
| Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 12?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.020 | $4.09 | May 9, 2026 |
| Will the NYT front-page headlines say "UFO" or "Alien" this week?Yes | buy | 110 | $0.499 | $54.9 | May 8, 2026 |
| Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?No | sell | 13.06 | $0.840 | $10.97 | May 8, 2026 |
| Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1490?No | sell | 5.8 | $0.900 | $5.22 | May 8, 2026 |
| Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1460?No | sell | 15 | $0.205 | $3.07 | May 8, 2026 |
| Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1460?No | buy | 5 | $0.700 | $3.5 | May 7, 2026 |
| Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1460?No | buy | 5 | $0.550 | $2.75 | May 7, 2026 |