Analytics
Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 11.63 | $0.430 | $6.22 | +$1.22 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 11.63 | $0.430 | $5 | 6d ago |
 |
| Yes |
| 20.63 |
| $0.240 |
| $6.09 |
| +$1.13 |
 Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | No | 6.08 | $0.800 | $5.68 | +$0.82 |
 Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | No | 9.57 | $0.540 | $5.22 | +$0.05 |
 Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | No | 6.08 | $0.800 | $5.19 | +$0.33 |
 Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | Yes | 9.25 | $0.440 | $5.13 | +$1.06 |
 Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 8.77 | $0.570 | $4.43 | -$0.57 |
 Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | No | 9.61 | $0.460 | $4.37 | -$0.05 |
 Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | No | 5.97 | $0.790 | $4.27 | -$0.45 |
 Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | No | 8.06 | $0.620 | $3.99 | -$1.01 |
 Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | No | 9.41 | $0.410 | $3.25 | -$0.61 |
 Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 8.33 | $0.410 | $2.87 | -$0.54 |
 Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? | No | 6 | $0.230 | $1.95 | +$0.57 |
 Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | No | 6.25 | $0.280 | $1.78 | +$0.03 |
 Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 8.75 | $0.440 | $1.36 | -$2.49 |
 Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? | Yes | 6.25 | $0.200 | $1.16 | -$0.09 |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | Yes | 20.83 | $0.240 | $1.09 | -$3.91 |
 Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? | No | 6.25 | $0.240 | $0.66 | -$0.84 |
| buy |
| 6 |
| $0.740 |
| $4.44 |
| Jul 20, 2026 |
 Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?Yes | buy | 7 | $0.310 | $2.17 | Jul 19, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?Yes | buy | 6 | $0.210 | $1.26 | Jul 19, 2026 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Yes | buy | 20.83 | $0.240 | $5 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?Yes | buy | 6.75 | $0.280 | $1.89 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?Yes | buy | 6.56 | $0.250 | $1.64 | Jul 17, 2026 |
 Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?No | buy | 6.56 | $0.250 | $1.64 | Jul 17, 2026 |
 Israel closes its airspace by August 31?No | buy | 6.08 | $0.770 | $4.68 | Jul 16, 2026 |
 Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 6.5 | $0.260 | $1.69 | Jul 16, 2026 |
 S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 15?Down | buy | 3.46 | $0.520 | $1.8 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?No | buy | 7.1 | $0.710 | $5.04 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?Yes | buy | 9 | $0.470 | $4.23 | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?Yes | buy | 7.31 | $0.689 | $5.04 | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?No | buy | 6.08 | $0.800 | $4.86 | Jul 12, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?Yes | buy | 6 | $0.220 | $1.32 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Netflix (NFLX) Q2 operating margin 34%-36%?Yes | buy | 6 | $0.270 | $1.62 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $3.1B?No | buy | 7.1 | $0.710 | $5.04 | Jul 10, 2026 |
 Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.5B?No | buy | 6.59 | $0.750 | $4.94 | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?Yes | buy | 6 | $0.210 | $1.26 | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?No | buy | 7.62 | $0.650 | $4.95 | Jul 8, 2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 8?Up | buy | 8.14 | $0.560 | $4.56 | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?Yes | buy | 9 | $0.490 | $4.41 | Jul 7, 2026 |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?Yes | buy | 6.51 | $0.750 | $4.88 | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?No | buy | 7.1 | $0.680 | $4.83 | Jul 6, 2026 |
 Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,050 Week of July 6 2026?Yes | buy | 6.08 | $0.720 | $4.38 | Jul 6, 2026 |
 Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?Yes | buy | 4.48 | $0.317 | $1.42 | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?Yes | buy | 7.4 | $0.350 | $2.59 | Jun 22, 2026 |
 Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $135 Week of June 22 2026?No | buy | 8.65 | $0.570 | $4.93 | Jun 22, 2026 |
 Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May?Yes | buy | 6.81 | $0.270 | $1.84 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?Yes | buy | 6 | $0.220 | $1.32 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?Yes | buy | 6.1 | $0.210 | $1.28 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?Yes | buy | 9.94 | $0.510 | $5.07 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?No | buy | 3.05 | $0.620 | $1.89 | Jun 17, 2026 |
 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No | buy | 7.11 | $0.660 | $4.69 | Jun 16, 2026 |
 Will Warsh say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference?No | buy | 8.13 | $0.610 | $4.96 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?Yes | buy | 8 | $0.410 | $3.28 | Jun 14, 2026 |
 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?No | buy | 9.25 | $0.480 | $4.44 | Jun 14, 2026 |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?No | buy | 9.41 | $0.410 | $3.86 | Jun 13, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?Yes | buy | 8 | $0.430 | $3.44 | Jun 12, 2026 |
 Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No | buy | 8.13 | $0.600 | $4.88 | Jun 11, 2026 |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Yes | buy | 9.25 | $0.440 | $4.07 | Jun 1, 2026 |
 Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes | buy | 6 | $0.740 | $4.44 | May 31, 2026 |
 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?No | buy | 2.03 | $0.720 | $1.46 | May 31, 2026 |
 Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionYes | buy | 6.38 | $0.790 | $5.04 | May 30, 2026 |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No | buy | 8.06 | $0.620 | $5 | May 30, 2026 |
 Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?Yes | buy | 7 | $0.340 | $2.38 | May 27, 2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 6.38 | $0.790 | $5.04 | May 27, 2026 |
 Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No | buy | 8.14 | $0.560 | $4.56 | May 22, 2026 |
 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?No | buy | 7.1 | $0.700 | $4.97 | May 21, 2026 |