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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 670.39 | $0.775 | $519.59 | 29d ago |
 |
| buy |
| 502.75 |
| $0.995 |
| $500 |
| Jul 8, 2026 |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?Yes | buy | 103.37 | $0.097 | $10 | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 670.39 | $0.746 | $500 | Jul 7, 2026 |
 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 344.83 | $0.580 | $200 | Jul 4, 2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 156.84 | $0.638 | $100 | Jul 3, 2026 |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?No | buy | 136.36 | $0.220 | $30 | Jul 3, 2026 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?No | sell | 1.54K | $0.989 | $1.52K | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?No | buy | 1.54K | $0.832 | $1.28K | Jun 27, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No | sell | 1.76K | $0.730 | $1.28K | Jun 27, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No | buy | 1.76K | $0.740 | $1.3K | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No | sell | 1.22K | $0.940 | $1.15K | Jun 22, 2026 |
 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No | sell | 107.14 | $0.930 | $99.64 | Jun 22, 2026 |
 Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?No | sell | 73.67 | $0.665 | $48.99 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No | buy | 107.14 | $0.840 | $90 | Jun 20, 2026 |
 Anthropic IPO before 2027?No | sell | 84 | $0.173 | $14.51 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No | buy | 821.92 | $0.730 | $600 | Jun 15, 2026 |
 Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?No | sell | 119.04 | $0.930 | $110.71 | Jun 14, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No | buy | 129.87 | $0.770 | $100 | Jun 14, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No | buy | 126.58 | $0.790 | $100 | Jun 12, 2026 |
| Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?No | sell | 91.74 | $0.570 | $52.29 | Jun 11, 2026 |
 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes | buy | 75.76 | $0.660 | $50 | May 20, 2026 |
 Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?No | buy | 35.71 | $0.840 | $30 | May 20, 2026 |
 Starmer out by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 74.07 | $0.270 | $20 | May 19, 2026 |
 AI bubble burst in 2026?No | buy | 250.94 | $0.797 | $200 | May 19, 2026 |
 Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?No | buy | 42.25 | $0.710 | $30 | May 19, 2026 |
| Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?No | buy | 91.75 | $0.545 | $50 | May 19, 2026 |
| Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?No | buy | 29.41 | $0.680 | $20 | May 19, 2026 |
| Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?No | buy | 44.26 | $0.678 | $30 | May 19, 2026 |
 SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?No | buy | 58.82 | $0.017 | $1 | May 19, 2026 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | sell | 73.53 | $0.706 | $51.91 | May 19, 2026 |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 46.15 | $0.650 | $30 | May 18, 2026 |
| Anthropic IPO before 2027?No | buy | 84 | $0.357 | $30 | May 18, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No | buy | 140.85 | $0.710 | $100 | May 18, 2026 |
 Iran closes its airspace by May 24?No | buy | 44.12 | $0.680 | $30 | May 18, 2026 |
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?No | buy | 53.57 | $0.560 | $30 | May 14, 2026 |
 Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?No | buy | 52.63 | $0.570 | $30 | May 14, 2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 175.44 | $0.570 | $100 | May 14, 2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 119.05 | $0.840 | $100 | May 14, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | buy | 73.54 | $0.680 | $50 | May 14, 2026 |
 Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 141.41 | $0.707 | $100 | May 14, 2026 |
 Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?No | buy | 270.27 | $0.370 | $100 | May 14, 2026 |
 Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?Yes | sell | 140.84 | $0.700 | $98.59 | Apr 11, 2026 |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?Yes | buy | 140.85 | $0.710 | $100 | Apr 11, 2026 |
 DeepSeek V4 released by April 7?Yes | sell | 30 | $0.073 | $2.19 | Apr 7, 2026 |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Yes | buy | 15.79 | $0.190 | $3 | Apr 6, 2026 |
 Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?Yes | sell | 260.24 | $0.033 | $8.65 | Apr 4, 2026 |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 163.93 | $0.690 | $113.11 | Apr 4, 2026 |
 Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 181.82 | $0.550 | $100 | Apr 3, 2026 |
| AI bubble burst in 2026?No | buy | 117.65 | $0.850 | $100 | Apr 3, 2026 |