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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Yes | sell | 9.38K | $0.160 | $1.5K | Jul 26, 2026 |
|
| buy |
| 9.38K |
| $0.160 |
| $1.5K |
| Jul 26, 2026 |
 Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes | sell | 600 | $0.024 | $14.58 | Jul 26, 2026 |
 Iran leadership change by July 31?Yes | sell | 6.86K | $0.011 | $73.12 | Jul 26, 2026 |
| Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes | sell | 897.32 | $0.025 | $22.08 | Jul 25, 2026 |
| Iran leadership change by September 30?Yes | sell | 7.25K | $0.154 | $1.12K | Jul 25, 2026 |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?Yes | sell | 893.39 | $0.077 | $68.81 | Jul 23, 2026 |
 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?No | sell | 227.27 | $0.259 | $58.82 | Jul 23, 2026 |
 Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by July 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 1K | $0.076 | $76.01 | Jul 23, 2026 |
 Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?Yes | sell | 1.59K | $0.170 | $270.94 | Jul 23, 2026 |
 Israel closes its airspace by July 31?Yes | sell | 1.01K | $0.281 | $282.28 | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?Yes | buy | 62.5 | $0.048 | $3 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31?Yes | buy | 605.45 | $0.248 | $150 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?No | sell | 3K | $0.051 | $153.24 | Jul 21, 2026 |
 Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.050 | $2 | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Yes | buy | 875 | $0.080 | $70 | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?Yes | buy | 1.25K | $0.080 | $100 | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?Yes | buy | 1.59K | $0.160 | $255 | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Yes | buy | 307.69 | $0.130 | $40 | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?No | buy | 227.27 | $0.220 | $50 | Jul 19, 2026 |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31?Yes | buy | 400 | $0.250 | $100 | Jul 19, 2026 |
| Iran leadership change by July 31?Yes | buy | 1.72K | $0.058 | $100 | Jul 19, 2026 |
| Iran leadership change by July 31?Yes | buy | 3.64K | $0.047 | $170 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?Yes | buy | 893.39 | $0.112 | $100 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Yes | buy | 600 | $0.150 | $90 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Iran leadership change by July 31?Yes | buy | 500 | $0.040 | $20 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Iran leadership change by September 30?Yes | buy | 1.25K | $0.120 | $150 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?Yes | buy | 909.09 | $0.110 | $100 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?Yes | buy | 1.82K | $0.099 | $180 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes | buy | 897.32 | $0.009 | $7.99 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes | buy | 600 | $0.015 | $9 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?Yes | buy | 1.46K | $0.027 | $40 | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Yes | sell | 1.05K | $0.140 | $147.37 | Jul 16, 2026 |
 Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 333.33 | $0.367 | $122.41 | Jul 16, 2026 |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes | sell | 2.1K | $0.230 | $482.92 | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Yes | sell | 3.08K | $0.156 | $478.7 | Jul 16, 2026 |
 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?Yes | sell | 2K | $0.458 | $916.72 | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Iran leadership change by September 30?Yes | buy | 5K | $0.100 | $500 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 333.33 | $0.150 | $50 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Yes | buy | 3.08K | $0.130 | $400 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?Yes | buy | 2K | $0.150 | $300 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Yes | buy | 1.05K | $0.190 | $200 | Jul 11, 2026 |