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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Yes | sell | 2.64K | $0.021 | $55.51 | May 31, 2026 |
|
| sell |
| 2.36K |
| $0.022 |
| $51.85 |
| May 31, 2026 |
 Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No | sell | 4K | $0.985 | $3.94K | May 31, 2026 |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Yes | sell | 303.46 | $0.439 | $133.15 | May 30, 2026 |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Yes | sell | 73.72 | $0.460 | $33.91 | May 30, 2026 |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Yes | sell | 147 | $0.506 | $74.4 | May 29, 2026 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No | buy | 6 | $0.930 | $5.58 | May 29, 2026 |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Yes | sell | 45 | $0.580 | $26.1 | May 29, 2026 |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No | buy | 10.01 | $0.959 | $9.6 | May 28, 2026 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No | buy | 120 | $0.890 | $106.8 | May 28, 2026 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No | buy | 59 | $0.880 | $51.92 | May 28, 2026 |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No | sell | 100 | $0.950 | $95 | May 28, 2026 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No | sell | 58.9 | $0.910 | $53.6 | May 28, 2026 |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Yes | sell | 60 | $0.610 | $36.6 | May 28, 2026 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?No | sell | 5K | $0.587 | $2.94K | May 28, 2026 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?No | buy | 5K | $0.870 | $4.35K | May 28, 2026 |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Yes | buy | 31.59 | $0.630 | $19.9 | May 28, 2026 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No | buy | 664 | $0.870 | $577.68 | May 28, 2026 |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Yes | buy | 500 | $0.490 | $244.79 | May 27, 2026 |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Yes | buy | 411.35 | $0.450 | $184.91 | May 27, 2026 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No | sell | 62 | $0.880 | $54.56 | May 27, 2026 |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No | buy | 2K | $0.918 | $1.84K | May 27, 2026 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No | buy | 1.48K | $0.859 | $1.27K | May 27, 2026 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No | buy | 1K | $0.833 | $832.91 | May 27, 2026 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No | buy | 1.67K | $0.810 | $1.36K | May 27, 2026 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No | buy | 27.14 | $0.640 | $17.37 | May 27, 2026 |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No | buy | 630.66 | $0.893 | $563 | May 27, 2026 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No | buy | 389.06 | $0.794 | $308.8 | May 27, 2026 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?Yes | sell | 1.02K | $0.368 | $374.41 | May 27, 2026 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?Yes | sell | 1.04K | $0.505 | $524.47 | May 27, 2026 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?Yes | sell | 43.03 | $0.540 | $23.24 | May 27, 2026 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.620 | $3.1 | May 27, 2026 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?Yes | buy | 956.41 | $0.746 | $713.38 | May 24, 2026 |
 Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Yes | sell | 10K | $0.998 | $9.98K | May 24, 2026 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes | sell | 3.54K | $0.975 | $3.45K | May 24, 2026 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?Yes | buy | 775.04 | $0.599 | $464.57 | May 23, 2026 |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No | buy | 1.95K | $0.890 | $1.74K | May 23, 2026 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?Yes | buy | 10K | $0.825 | $8.25K | May 23, 2026 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Yes | buy | 5.78K | $0.930 | $5.38K | May 23, 2026 |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?No | buy | 48.09 | $0.830 | $39.91 | May 23, 2026 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?Yes | buy | 105 | $0.520 | $54.6 | May 23, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No | buy | 20K | $0.940 | $18.8K | May 15, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?No | sell | 44.5K | $0.998 | $44.41K | May 15, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?No | buy | 4.5K | $0.930 | $4.18K | May 6, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?No | buy | 40K | $0.960 | $38.4K | May 3, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?No | sell | 30K | $0.999 | $29.97K | May 1, 2026 |
 Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 3.24K | $0.175 | $568.72 | Apr 22, 2026 |
 Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes | sell | 2.88K | $0.207 | $595.56 | Apr 22, 2026 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | sell | 3.74K | $0.271 | $1.01K | Apr 22, 2026 |
 Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 2.59K | $0.823 | $2.13K | Apr 22, 2026 |