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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | No | 24.24 | $0.330 | $13.7 | +$5.7 |
 Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?No | buy | 24.24 | $0.330 | $8 | 1d ago |
 |
| No |
| 15.68 |
| $0.510 |
| $13.25 |
| +$5.25 |
 Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | No | 11.76 | $0.810 | $10.64 | +$1.12 |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 17.39 | $0.460 | $9.3 | +$1.3 |
 Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | No | 10.52 | $0.760 | $7.47 | -$0.53 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026? | No | 10.67 | $0.750 | $7.47 | -$0.53 |
 Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 13.09 | $0.566 | $7.39 | -$0.02 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 16.33 | $0.490 | $7.27 | -$0.73 |
 Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? | No | 7.53 | $0.797 | $7.09 | +$1.09 |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | No | 6.08 | $0.770 | $5.88 | +$1.2 |
 Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | No | 10.34 | $0.580 | $5.84 | -$0.16 |
 Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 11.26 | $0.710 | $5.69 | -$2.31 |
 Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 11 | $0.460 | $5.56 | +$0.5 |
 US strike on Colombia by December 31? | No | 6.41 | $0.780 | $5.51 | +$0.51 |
 Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | No | 6.32 | $0.831 | $5.4 | +$0.15 |
 Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | Yes | 11.29 | $0.620 | $4.91 | -$2.09 |
 Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | No | 13.1 | $0.400 | $4.52 | -$0.72 |
 Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? | No | 10 | $0.230 | $4.25 | +$1.95 |
| Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 41.41 | $0.230 | $3.93 | -$5.59 |
 Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027? | No | 4.57 | $0.610 | $3.59 | +$0.8 |
 Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | No | 10 | $0.230 | $2.75 | +$0.45 |
 Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 15.3 | $0.500 | $2.22 | -$5.43 |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? | Yes | 2.2 | $0.790 | $1.97 | +$0.23 |
 Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? | Yes | 6.25 | $0.200 | $1.16 | -$0.09 |
| No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 | Yes | 6.25 | $0.210 | $0.97 | -$0.34 |
| buy |
| 10.67 |
| $0.750 |
| $8 |
| 1d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 16.33 | $0.490 | $8 | 1d ago |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?Yes | buy | 22.86 | $0.350 | $8 | 5d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 17.39 | $0.460 | $8 | 6d ago |
| Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in August 2026?Yes | buy | 38.1 | $0.210 | $8 | 17d ago |
 US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Yes | buy | 32 | $0.250 | $8 | 26d ago |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?No | buy | 10 | $0.800 | $8 | 27d ago |
 Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?No | buy | 14.29 | $0.560 | $8 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No | buy | 12.31 | $0.650 | $8 | Aug 2, 2026 |
 Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July?No | buy | 3.04 | $0.680 | $2.07 | Aug 1, 2026 |
 Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?No | buy | 3.06 | $0.500 | $1.53 | Jul 31, 2026 |
 WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on July 31?Yes | buy | 3 | $0.380 | $1.14 | Jul 31, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Coal" during cabinet meeting?No | buy | 3.82 | $0.510 | $1.95 | Jul 30, 2026 |
 Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?Yes | buy | 3.82 | $0.510 | $1.95 | Jul 28, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during tribute to Lindsey Graham?Yes | buy | 3.03 | $0.370 | $1.12 | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 12+ times during Michigan remarks?No | buy | 5 | $0.470 | $2.35 | Jul 26, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Golf" or "Golfer" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?No | buy | 25 | $0.320 | $8 | Jul 26, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Security" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?No | buy | 7.5 | $0.360 | $2.7 | Jul 25, 2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 6.09 | $0.737 | $4.49 | Jul 25, 2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 10.23 | $0.215 | $2.2 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.210 | $2.1 | Jul 23, 2026 |
 Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?Yes | buy | 9.18 | $0.500 | $4.59 | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No | buy | 8.65 | $0.570 | $4.93 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?Yes | buy | 7 | $0.330 | $2.31 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?Yes | buy | 24.24 | $0.330 | $8 | Jul 21, 2026 |
 Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?Yes | buy | 7.87 | $0.630 | $4.96 | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?Yes | buy | 9.94 | $0.510 | $5.07 | Jul 20, 2026 |
 Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of July 20 2026?No | buy | 8.15 | $0.610 | $4.97 | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No | buy | 7.11 | $0.660 | $4.69 | Jul 19, 2026 |
 Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?No | buy | 6.75 | $0.280 | $1.89 | Jul 19, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No | buy | 6.08 | $0.800 | $4.86 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?No | buy | 6.08 | $0.770 | $4.68 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No | buy | 6.08 | $0.760 | $4.62 | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?Yes | buy | 9 | $0.490 | $4.41 | Jul 17, 2026 |
 Israel closes its airspace by August 31?No | buy | 6.08 | $0.770 | $4.68 | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?Yes | buy | 9 | $0.490 | $4.41 | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?No | buy | 7.62 | $0.650 | $4.95 | Jul 15, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" during Speech to the Nation?No | buy | 8.13 | $0.600 | $4.88 | Jul 15, 2026 |
 Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from July 10 to July 17, 2026?Yes | buy | 6.5 | $0.260 | $1.69 | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?No | buy | 9.17 | $0.520 | $4.77 | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Yes | buy | 6 | $0.230 | $1.38 | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?Yes | buy | 9 | $0.460 | $4.14 | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?No | buy | 7 | $0.320 | $2.24 | Jul 12, 2026 |
 Will "World Cup" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Yes | buy | 18.73 | $0.740 | $13.86 | Jul 12, 2026 |
 Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q2 da Vinci procedure growth 15%-17.5%?No | buy | 7 | $0.370 | $2.59 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Netflix (NFLX) Q2 operating margin 32%-34%?Yes | buy | 9 | $0.470 | $4.23 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?No | buy | 8.19 | $0.740 | $6.06 | Jul 10, 2026 |
 Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 6 | $0.220 | $1.32 | Jul 10, 2026 |
 Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.5B?Yes | buy | 6.5 | $0.260 | $1.69 | Jul 9, 2026 |