Analytics
Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | No | 47 | $0.940 | $45.92 | +$1.74 |
 Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 36 | $0.968 | $34.85 | Jun 8, 2026 |
 |
| No |
| 44.91 |
| $0.915 |
| $42.91 |
| +$1.82 |
| Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? | No | 36 | $0.968 | $35.78 | +$0.94 |
 Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 34 | $0.963 | $33.37 | +$0.63 |
 Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 24 | $0.919 | $23.58 | +$1.52 |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 24 | $0.690 | $21.96 | +$5.4 |
 China x Japan military clash before 2027? | No | 22.39 | $0.870 | $20.93 | +$1.46 |
 US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? | No | 9.64 | $0.700 | $9.11 | +$2.36 |
 Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Yes | 26.18 | $0.680 | $4.32 | -$13.48 |
 Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 135.94 | $0.018 | $0.2 | -$2.31 |
| buy |
| 33 |
| $0.985 |
| $32.51 |
| Jun 8, 2026 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 47 | $0.940 | $44.18 | Jun 8, 2026 |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 35 | $0.940 | $32.9 | May 20, 2026 |
 SAVE America Act becomes law by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 37.07 | $0.989 | $36.66 | May 20, 2026 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 32.42 | $0.992 | $32.16 | May 20, 2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?No | buy | 46 | $0.995 | $45.77 | May 20, 2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?No | buy | 36.82 | $0.992 | $36.53 | May 20, 2026 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?No | buy | 19.39 | $0.963 | $18.67 | Mar 15, 2026 |
| US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?No | buy | 9.64 | $0.700 | $6.75 | Mar 15, 2026 |
 Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Yes | buy | 155 | $0.007 | $1.09 | Mar 15, 2026 |
 Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?Yes | buy | 60.51 | $0.010 | $0.61 | Mar 13, 2026 |
 Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by March 31?No | buy | 33 | $0.969 | $31.98 | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes | buy | 65.94 | $0.019 | $1.25 | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No | buy | 24 | $0.919 | $22.06 | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?No | buy | 44.91 | $0.915 | $41.09 | Mar 13, 2026 |
 Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes | buy | 34.97 | $0.945 | $33.05 | Mar 13, 2026 |
 Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes | buy | 37 | $0.359 | $13.28 | Mar 13, 2026 |
 Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?Yes | buy | 127.68 | $0.600 | $76.61 | Feb 26, 2026 |
 Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?No | buy | 27.1 | $0.995 | $26.96 | Feb 26, 2026 |
 US strikes Iraq by February 28?No | buy | 30.78 | $0.992 | $30.53 | Feb 26, 2026 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes | buy | 26.18 | $0.680 | $17.8 | Feb 26, 2026 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategyYes | buy | 25.6 | $0.920 | $23.55 | Feb 26, 2026 |
 No release by March 1Yes | buy | 131.81 | $0.009 | $1.19 | Feb 26, 2026 |
 US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 23.93 | $0.320 | $7.66 | Feb 26, 2026 |
 Will Munyagwa Mubarak Sserunga win the 2026 Ugandan presidential election?Yes | buy | 999.94 | $0.002 | $2 | Jan 12, 2026 |
 Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31?No | buy | 45 | $0.995 | $44.78 | Jan 12, 2026 |
 U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31?Yes | buy | 48.29 | $0.029 | $1.4 | Jan 12, 2026 |
 First to 5k: Gold or ETH?ETH | buy | 40 | $0.280 | $11.2 | Jan 12, 2026 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 30 | $0.955 | $28.65 | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No | buy | 34 | $0.963 | $32.74 | Jan 12, 2026 |
 Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?No | buy | 29.6 | $0.925 | $27.38 | Jan 12, 2026 |
 Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?No | buy | 100 | $0.140 | $14 | Dec 28, 2025 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?No | buy | 222 | $0.140 | $31.08 | Dec 28, 2025 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?No | buy | 173.52 | $0.140 | $24.29 | Dec 28, 2025 |
| Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?No | buy | 273.14 | $0.150 | $40.97 | Dec 28, 2025 |
 Is Earth flat?No | sell | 22.13 | $0.998 | $22.09 | Dec 28, 2025 |
 Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?No | sell | 34.21 | $0.998 | $34.14 | Dec 28, 2025 |
 Interstellar object confirmed aliens?No | sell | 34.83 | $0.998 | $34.76 | Dec 28, 2025 |
| Interstellar object confirmed aliens?No | buy | 34.83 | $0.995 | $34.66 | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?No | buy | 34.21 | $0.998 | $34.14 | Dec 17, 2025 |
 Anthropic acquired in 2025?No | buy | 19.3 | $0.995 | $19.2 | Dec 17, 2025 |
 Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?No | buy | 26.38 | $0.996 | $26.27 | Dec 17, 2025 |
 Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 18?No | buy | 47.97 | $0.024 | $1.17 | Dec 17, 2025 |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027?No | buy | 22.39 | $0.870 | $19.48 | Dec 17, 2025 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?Yes | buy | 54 | $0.033 | $1.78 | Dec 17, 2025 |
 Yoon out of custody in 2025?No | sell | 37.22 | $0.991 | $36.89 | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Yoon out of custody in 2025?No | buy | 15 | $0.978 | $14.67 | Nov 26, 2025 |
| Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30?No | buy | 26 | $0.969 | $25.19 | Nov 26, 2025 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31?No | buy | 23 | $0.991 | $22.79 | Nov 26, 2025 |