Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.998 | $5 | May 20, 2026 |
 |
| buy |
| 5.04 |
| $0.993 |
| $5 |
| May 20, 2026 |
 Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?No | buy | 5.04 | $0.992 | $5 | May 20, 2026 |
 Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.998 | $5 | May 20, 2026 |
 Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 5.02 | $0.997 | $5 | May 5, 2026 |
 Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.998 | $5 | May 5, 2026 |
 Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.998 | $5 | May 5, 2026 |
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Yes | buy | 5.01 | $0.999 | $5 | May 5, 2026 |
 Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?No | sell | 5.02 | $0.997 | $5 | Apr 7, 2026 |
 Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No | sell | 5.06 | $0.983 | $4.97 | Apr 7, 2026 |
 Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No | sell | 5.04 | $0.993 | $5 | Apr 7, 2026 |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPC?No | sell | 5.03 | $0.997 | $5.01 | Apr 7, 2026 |
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?No | sell | 5.05 | $0.999 | $5.04 | Apr 7, 2026 |
 Will MrBeast hit 490 Million subscribers by March 31?No | buy | 5.06 | $0.989 | $5 | Mar 5, 2026 |
 Will Joachim Trier win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No | buy | 5.02 | $0.997 | $5 | Mar 5, 2026 |
 Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.999 | $5 | Mar 5, 2026 |
 Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 22m?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.999 | $5 | Mar 5, 2026 |
 Will Claude go down 1-2 times in March?No | buy | 5.03 | $0.994 | $5 | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?No | buy | 5.03 | $0.995 | $5 | Mar 5, 2026 |
 Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by February 28, 2026?No | buy | 5.05 | $0.991 | $5 | Feb 18, 2026 |
 Will there be between 6 and 9 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?No | buy | 5.05 | $0.990 | $5 | Feb 18, 2026 |
 Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)?No | buy | 5.07 | $0.987 | $5 | Feb 18, 2026 |
 Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No | sell | 5.04 | $0.975 | $4.91 | Feb 18, 2026 |
 Will the median home value in Chicago be less than $300,000 by March 1?No | buy | 5.05 | $0.990 | $5 | Feb 12, 2026 |
 Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate after the February decision?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.998 | $5 | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No | buy | 5.04 | $0.992 | $5 | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)?No | buy | 5.04 | $0.992 | $5 | Feb 12, 2026 |
 Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.999 | $5 | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No | buy | 5.07 | $0.987 | $5 | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No | buy | 5.05 | $0.991 | $5 | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?No | buy | 5.05 | $0.990 | $5 | Feb 12, 2026 |
 Once Upon a Farm IPO before 2027?Yes | sell | 5.03 | $0.986 | $4.96 | Feb 5, 2026 |
 Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k?Yes | sell | 5.05 | $0.984 | $4.97 | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on IPO day?No | sell | 5.05 | $0.981 | $4.95 | Feb 5, 2026 |
 Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?No | sell | 5.05 | $0.977 | $4.93 | Feb 5, 2026 |
 Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q1 2026No | buy | 5.01 | $0.998 | $5 | Feb 3, 2026 |
 Will Alibaba have the best AI model for coding on March 31?No | buy | 5.02 | $0.997 | $5 | Feb 3, 2026 |
 Will Paramount+ be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.998 | $5 | Feb 3, 2026 |
 Will Artemis II launch by February 7?No | buy | 5.03 | $0.995 | $5 | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPC?No | buy | 5.04 | $0.993 | $5 | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k?Yes | buy | 5.05 | $0.991 | $5 | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Once Upon a Farm IPO before 2027?Yes | buy | 5.04 | $0.993 | $5 | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on IPO day?No | buy | 5.05 | $0.990 | $5 | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?No | buy | 5.05 | $0.990 | $5 | Feb 3, 2026 |
 Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?No | sell | 6.06 | $0.987 | $5.98 | Feb 3, 2026 |
 Will the US strike Yemen next?No | sell | 6.01 | $0.967 | $5.81 | Feb 3, 2026 |
 Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?No | sell | 6.06 | $0.985 | $5.97 | Feb 2, 2026 |
 Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No | sell | 6.06 | $0.987 | $5.98 | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?No | buy | 6.07 | $0.989 | $6 | Feb 1, 2026 |
| Will the US strike Yemen next?No | buy | 6.02 | $0.997 | $6 | Feb 1, 2026 |