Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?Yes | sell | 22.72K | $0.001 | $22.72 | Feb 2, 2026 |
 |
| sell |
| 22.72K |
| $0.001 |
| $22.72 |
| Feb 2, 2026 |
 Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?No | sell | 30.48 | $0.220 | $6.71 | Feb 2, 2026 |
 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 21.11K | $0.070 | $1.48K | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 45.06K | $0.070 | $3.15K | Feb 2, 2026 |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?No | sell | 4.31K | $0.491 | $2.11K | Feb 1, 2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 27.87K | $0.015 | $418.01 | Feb 1, 2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 27.87K | $0.014 | $394.07 | Feb 1, 2026 |
 Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?No | sell | 2.46K | $0.989 | $2.43K | Feb 1, 2026 |
 US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?No | sell | 22.71K | $0.491 | $11.15K | Feb 1, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?No | sell | 19.05K | $0.440 | $8.38K | Feb 1, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No | sell | 35.79K | $0.870 | $31.14K | Feb 1, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?No | sell | 8.2K | $0.510 | $4.18K | Feb 1, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Yes | sell | 30.81K | $0.310 | $9.55K | Feb 1, 2026 |
 Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31?No | sell | 18.68K | $0.953 | $17.79K | Feb 1, 2026 |
 Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes | sell | 21.23K | $0.985 | $20.91K | Feb 1, 2026 |
 US government shutdown Saturday?Yes | sell | 82.85K | $0.998 | $82.68K | Feb 1, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Yes | sell | 2.05K | $0.250 | $511.75 | Feb 1, 2026 |
 Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No | sell | 4K | $0.950 | $3.8K | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No | sell | 12.07K | $0.800 | $9.66K | Jan 30, 2026 |
| US government shutdown Saturday?Yes | buy | 3.1K | $0.550 | $1.71K | Jan 29, 2026 |
| US government shutdown Saturday?Yes | buy | 3.22K | $0.530 | $1.71K | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 42.23K | $0.070 | $2.96K | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?No | buy | 36.64K | $0.090 | $3.3K | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?No | buy | 1.76K | $0.880 | $1.55K | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 8.78K | $0.850 | $7.46K | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?No | buy | 2.17K | $0.870 | $1.88K | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 40.69K | $0.003 | $122.06 | Jan 28, 2026 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 115.97K | $0.997 | $115.62K | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?No | buy | 25.18K | $0.958 | $24.12K | Jan 28, 2026 |
| US government shutdown Saturday?Yes | buy | 8.65K | $0.750 | $6.48K | Jan 28, 2026 |
| US government shutdown Saturday?Yes | sell | 30.75K | $0.721 | $22.16K | Jan 27, 2026 |
 Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?No | buy | 1.1K | $0.530 | $581.29 | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Fed rate cut by January 2026 meeting?No | buy | 2.23K | $0.989 | $2.2K | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?Yes | sell | 13.09K | $0.030 | $392.61 | Jan 26, 2026 |
| US government shutdown Saturday?Yes | buy | 7.92K | $0.770 | $6.1K | Jan 26, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?No | buy | 5.11K | $0.430 | $2.2K | Jan 25, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?Yes | buy | 15.13K | $0.033 | $493.35 | Jan 25, 2026 |
| US government shutdown Saturday?Yes | buy | 17.95K | $0.730 | $13.1K | Jan 25, 2026 |
 Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101?Yes | buy | 2.98K | $0.950 | $2.83K | Jan 25, 2026 |
| Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101?No | buy | 6.57K | $0.080 | $525.98 | Jan 24, 2026 |
| Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101?Yes | buy | 8.64K | $0.930 | $8.03K | Jan 24, 2026 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 76.2K | $0.985 | $75.06K | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No | sell | 10.35K | $0.830 | $8.59K | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?Yes | sell | 18.42K | $0.050 | $921.04 | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 8.01K | $0.016 | $128.23 | Jan 21, 2026 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 12.16K | $0.982 | $11.94K | Jan 21, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?No | buy | 11.29K | $0.500 | $5.65K | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Fed rate cut by January 2026 meeting?No | buy | 1.24K | $0.982 | $1.22K | Jan 21, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No | buy | 2.69K | $0.760 | $2.05K | Jan 21, 2026 |