Analytics
Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 2.57 | $0.389 | $2.35 | +$1.35 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 5.55 | $0.140 | $0.78 | 10d ago |
 |
| Yes |
| 6.26 |
| $0.320 |
| $1.85 |
| -$0.15 |
 Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Yes | 2.73 | $0.446 | $1.46 | +$0.24 |
 IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? | No | 1.28 | $0.780 | $1.1 | +$0.1 |
 Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 12.03 | $0.166 | $0.96 | -$1.04 |
 Iran Nuke before 2027? | Yes | 18.18 | $0.055 | $0.95 | -$0.05 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 10.01 | $0.100 | $0.75 | -$0.25 |
 Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 4.1 | $0.244 | $0.6 | -$0.4 |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 3.71 | $0.270 | $0.57 | -$0.43 |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 2.82 | $0.710 | $0.49 | -$1.51 |
 Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 2.08 | $0.770 | $0.49 | -$1.11 |
 US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 2.78 | $0.360 | $0.37 | -$0.63 |
 Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? | Yes | 3.85 | $0.260 | $0.37 | -$0.63 |
 Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2.94 | $0.340 | $0.19 | -$0.81 |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 33.33 | $0.030 | $0.15 | -$0.85 |
| sell |
| 18.18 |
| $0.100 |
| $1.82 |
| 10d ago |
| Will Carlos Prates be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 18.19 | $0.110 | $2 | 17d ago |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?Yes | sell | 60 | $0.029 | $1.74 | 24d ago |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Yes | sell | 24.84 | $0.070 | $1.74 | 24d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 2.82 | $0.710 | $2 | 24d ago |
 US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No | sell | 6.5 | $0.330 | $2.15 | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Yes | buy | 18.18 | $0.110 | $2 | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?Yes | buy | 60 | $0.050 | $3 | Aug 4, 2026 |
 Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?Yes | buy | 29.41 | $0.034 | $1 | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Yes | buy | 6.67 | $0.150 | $1 | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?Yes | buy | 20.83 | $0.048 | $1 | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes | buy | 3.7 | $0.270 | $1 | Aug 1, 2026 |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No | buy | 3.23 | $0.620 | $2 | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 2.57 | $0.389 | $1 | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?Yes | buy | 3.03 | $0.330 | $1 | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes | sell | 63.07 | $0.260 | $16.4 | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?Yes | buy | 3.23 | $0.310 | $1 | Jul 31, 2026 |
 Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31?Yes | buy | 4.35 | $0.230 | $1 | Jul 31, 2026 |
 US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 15.15 | $0.280 | $4.24 | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 1.37 | $0.728 | $1 | Jul 27, 2026 |
 Iran nuclear test before 2027?Yes | sell | 40 | $0.050 | $2 | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes | buy | 9.09 | $0.220 | $2 | Jul 27, 2026 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Yes | buy | 5.88 | $0.170 | $1 | Jul 26, 2026 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 15.15 | $0.330 | $5 | Jul 26, 2026 |
 Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?No | buy | 4.74 | $0.422 | $2 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes | buy | 22.73 | $0.220 | $5 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.100 | $1 | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?Yes | buy | 16.39 | $0.061 | $1 | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Iran nuclear test before 2027?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.050 | $2 | Jul 13, 2026 |
 Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Yes | buy | 2.38 | $0.420 | $1 | Jul 13, 2026 |
 Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 1.69 | $0.590 | $1 | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?Yes | buy | 15.28 | $0.065 | $1 | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 5.56 | $0.180 | $1 | Jul 13, 2026 |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No | buy | 3.28 | $0.610 | $2 | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Iran Nuke before 2027?Yes | buy | 18.18 | $0.055 | $1 | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No | buy | 4.1 | $0.244 | $1 | Jul 13, 2026 |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?No | buy | 1.28 | $0.780 | $1 | Jul 13, 2026 |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | sell | 10.86 | $0.172 | $1.87 | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes | buy | 31.25 | $0.160 | $5 | Jul 8, 2026 |
 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes | sell | 2.65 | $0.775 | $2.05 | Jul 8, 2026 |
 Will Ilia Topuria be the next fighter to be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings in 2026?Yes | sell | 1.47 | $0.010 | $0.01 | Jun 16, 2026 |
 Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?No | sell | 10 | $0.006 | $0.06 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes | sell | 104.08 | $0.004 | $0.42 | Jun 16, 2026 |
 Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Yes | buy | 3.23 | $0.310 | $1 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes | buy | 1.54 | $0.650 | $1 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes | buy | 4.55 | $0.220 | $1 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes | sell | 5.88 | $0.210 | $1.23 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes | buy | 2.22 | $0.450 | $1 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes | buy | 1.52 | $0.660 | $1 | Jun 15, 2026 |