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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?Yes | sell | 48.78 | $0.280 | $13.66 | Apr 23, 2026 |
 |
| sell |
| 25.49 |
| $0.410 |
| $10.45 |
| Apr 15, 2026 |
| Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?Yes | buy | 48.78 | $0.410 | $20 | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?Yes | buy | 25.49 | $0.588 | $15 | Apr 14, 2026 |
 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 1.5K | $0.002 | $3 | Mar 18, 2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 12.5K | $0.002 | $25 | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 1.25K | $0.004 | $5 | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 3K | $0.002 | $6 | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 800 | $0.005 | $4 | Mar 3, 2026 |
 Will GTA 6 cost $100+?Yes | buy | 3K | $0.001 | $3 | Mar 1, 2026 |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?No | buy | 100 | $0.040 | $4 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 7.14K | $0.007 | $50 | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 1.5K | $0.006 | $9 | Feb 18, 2026 |
 Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Yes | buy | 932.79 | $0.011 | $10 | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 7.14K | $0.007 | $50 | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 50.75K | $0.007 | $355.25 | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Will GTA 6 cost $100+?Yes | buy | 150 | $0.010 | $1.5 | Feb 7, 2026 |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Yes | buy | 180.71 | $0.014 | $2.5 | Feb 7, 2026 |
 Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?Yes | buy | 250 | $0.004 | $1 | Feb 6, 2026 |
 Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?Yes | buy | 500 | $0.002 | $1 | Feb 6, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?Yes | sell | 375 | $0.007 | $2.63 | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 25.42K | $0.012 | $305 | Feb 6, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?Yes | buy | 375 | $0.012 | $4.5 | Feb 6, 2026 |
 Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February?Yes | sell | 31.25 | $0.079 | $2.47 | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February?Yes | sell | 67.72 | $0.039 | $2.64 | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February?Yes | buy | 31.25 | $0.160 | $5 | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February?Yes | buy | 67.73 | $0.074 | $5 | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 375 | $0.080 | $30 | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 25K | $0.010 | $250 | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 333.33 | $0.012 | $4 | Feb 4, 2026 |