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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?Yes | buy | 57.14 | $0.350 | $20 | Apr 25, 2025 |
|
| sell |
| 161.77 |
| $0.560 |
| $90.59 |
| Mar 18, 2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?Yes | buy | 161.78 | $0.580 | $93.83 | Mar 18, 2025 |
 Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok?No | sell | 12.63 | $0.957 | $12.09 | Mar 11, 2025 |
 Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July?No | sell | 13.04 | $0.941 | $12.27 | Mar 11, 2025 |
 US recession in 2025?Yes | sell | 63.15 | $0.380 | $24.01 | Mar 11, 2025 |
 Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31?No | sell | 21.05 | $0.930 | $19.58 | Feb 28, 2025 |
 Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before April?No | sell | 13.95 | $0.968 | $13.5 | Feb 28, 2025 |
 Will Meta buy TikTok?No | sell | 13.04 | $0.949 | $12.37 | Feb 28, 2025 |
 Trump releases Epstein list today?No | buy | 197.03 | $0.668 | $131.64 | Feb 27, 2025 |
 Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 between December and June?No | sell | 26.66 | $0.939 | $25.03 | Feb 27, 2025 |
| Trump releases Epstein list today?No | buy | 29.98 | $0.660 | $19.79 | Feb 27, 2025 |
| Will Meta buy TikTok?No | buy | 13.04 | $0.920 | $12 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July?No | buy | 13.04 | $0.920 | $12 | Jan 21, 2025 |
| Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok?No | buy | 12.63 | $0.950 | $12 | Jan 21, 2025 |
 Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March?Yes | buy | 15.38 | $0.780 | $12 | Jan 17, 2025 |
 Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30?No | sell | 13.95 | $0.870 | $12.14 | Jan 14, 2025 |
 Will Elon Musk buy MSNBC?No | sell | 13.95 | $0.967 | $13.49 | Jan 14, 2025 |
 Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?Yes | buy | 103.96 | $0.058 | $6 | Jan 14, 2025 |
| Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?Yes | buy | 84.51 | $0.071 | $6 | Jan 14, 2025 |
| Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.060 | $6 | Jan 14, 2025 |
| Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.060 | $6 | Jan 14, 2025 |
| Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?No | buy | 42.86 | $0.280 | $12 | Jan 14, 2025 |
 Vivek out as Head of DOGE before July?No | buy | 7.79 | $0.770 | $6 | Jan 14, 2025 |
| Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 between December and June?No | buy | 26.67 | $0.450 | $12 | Jan 14, 2025 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31?No | buy | 21.05 | $0.570 | $12 | Jan 14, 2025 |
 Will Ethereum hit $4,250 by January 31, 2025?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.100 | $2 | Jan 14, 2025 |
 Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by January 31, 2025?No | buy | 26.97 | $0.890 | $24 | Jan 14, 2025 |
 Will Trump's inaugural address be 14-16 minutes?No | buy | 13.33 | $0.900 | $12 | Jan 14, 2025 |
| Will Trump's inaugural address be 20 minutes or more?Yes | buy | 18.6 | $0.430 | $8 | Jan 14, 2025 |
 Will Michelle Obama attend presidential inauguration?Yes | buy | 17.14 | $0.700 | $12 | Jan 14, 2025 |
 Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 31.25 | $0.032 | $1 | Jan 14, 2025 |
 Will someone else be inaugurated?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.005 | $1 | Jan 14, 2025 |
 Trump positive favorability on inauguration day?Yes | buy | 22.22 | $0.540 | $12 | Jan 14, 2025 |
 Fact Check: Is Luigi Mangione gay?No | sell | 16.43 | $0.880 | $14.46 | Jan 14, 2025 |
| Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before April?No | buy | 13.95 | $0.860 | $12 | Jan 14, 2025 |
 OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.300 | $12 | Jan 9, 2025 |
| US recession in 2025?Yes | buy | 63.16 | $0.190 | $12 | Jan 9, 2025 |
 Will Palisades wildfire spread to Malibu by Sunday?No | buy | 17.39 | $0.690 | $12 | Jan 9, 2025 |
 Gavin Newsom recalled before July?Yes | buy | 133.33 | $0.090 | $12 | Jan 9, 2025 |
| Fact Check: Is Luigi Mangione gay?No | buy | 16.44 | $0.730 | $12 | Dec 12, 2024 |
 Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in December?No | buy | 14.12 | $0.850 | $12 | Dec 6, 2024 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in December?No | buy | 15.79 | $0.760 | $12 | Dec 6, 2024 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December?No | buy | 25.77 | $0.466 | $12 | Dec 6, 2024 |
| Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30?No | buy | 13.95 | $0.860 | $12 | Dec 3, 2024 |
 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes | buy | 28.57 | $0.420 | $12 | Nov 26, 2024 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?Yes | buy | 31.58 | $0.380 | $12 | Nov 26, 2024 |
+placed+on+a+vibrant+green+arrow+that's+shooting+upwards%2C+symbolizing+the+rapid+growth+and+bullis.webp) No Ethereum all time high in 2024?Yes | buy | 14.29 | $0.840 | $12 | Nov 26, 2024 |
 Dogecoin above $0.40 on November 29?No | buy | 17.14 | $0.700 | $12 | Nov 26, 2024 |
 Ripple above $1.46 on November 29?No | buy | 15.58 | $0.770 | $12 | Nov 26, 2024 |