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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?Yes | sell | 114.3 | $0.162 | $18.49 | Apr 7, 2025 |
|
| sell |
| 228.61 |
| $0.182 |
| $41.61 |
| Apr 7, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?Yes | sell | 300 | $0.200 | $60 | Apr 5, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?Yes | sell | 200 | $0.210 | $42 | Apr 5, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?Yes | sell | 957.23 | $0.205 | $196.3 | Apr 4, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?Yes | sell | 8 | $0.220 | $1.76 | Apr 4, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?Yes | sell | 50 | $0.220 | $11 | Apr 4, 2025 |
 DeepSeek V4 released before May?Yes | sell | 111.72 | $0.140 | $15.64 | Mar 26, 2025 |
| DeepSeek V4 released before May?Yes | sell | 149.02 | $0.150 | $22.35 | Mar 26, 2025 |
| DeepSeek V4 released before May?Yes | sell | 55 | $0.160 | $8.8 | Mar 25, 2025 |
| DeepSeek V4 released before May?Yes | sell | 15 | $0.170 | $2.55 | Mar 25, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?Yes | buy | 15 | $0.350 | $5.25 | Mar 24, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?Yes | buy | 60 | $0.350 | $21 | Mar 24, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?Yes | buy | 216.95 | $0.490 | $106.31 | Mar 18, 2025 |
 Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31?No | sell | 335.52 | $0.120 | $40.26 | Mar 18, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by March 31?Yes | buy | 1.59K | $0.013 | $20 | Mar 17, 2025 |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31?No | sell | 103.93 | $0.160 | $16.63 | Mar 17, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by March 31?Yes | sell | 70 | $0.026 | $1.82 | Mar 2, 2025 |
 Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31?Yes | sell | 20.93 | $0.025 | $0.52 | Mar 1, 2025 |
| DeepSeek V4 released before May?Yes | buy | 250 | $0.256 | $64 | Feb 28, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by March 31?Yes | sell | 262.66 | $0.038 | $9.98 | Feb 28, 2025 |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31?Yes | buy | 93.36 | $0.024 | $2.24 | Feb 28, 2025 |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31?Yes | buy | 252.14 | $0.022 | $5.55 | Feb 28, 2025 |
 Will GPT-4.5 be released by February 28?Yes | sell | 150 | $0.982 | $147.3 | Feb 27, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by March 31?Yes | sell | 133 | $0.045 | $5.98 | Feb 27, 2025 |
| Will GPT-4.5 be released by February 28?Yes | sell | 170 | $0.800 | $136 | Feb 27, 2025 |
| Will GPT-4.5 be released by February 28?Yes | sell | 33 | $0.810 | $26.73 | Feb 27, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by March 31?Yes | buy | 1.72K | $0.058 | $100 | Feb 27, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by March 31?Yes | buy | 646.32 | $0.040 | $25.85 | Feb 27, 2025 |
| Will GPT-4.5 be released by February 28?Yes | sell | 20 | $0.720 | $14.4 | Feb 26, 2025 |
| Will GPT-4.5 be released by February 28?Yes | sell | 250 | $0.160 | $40 | Feb 25, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.370 | $7.4 | Feb 25, 2025 |
 Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28?Yes | sell | 167.2 | $0.094 | $15.78 | Feb 25, 2025 |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28?Yes | sell | 24.99 | $0.096 | $2.4 | Feb 25, 2025 |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28?Yes | sell | 17.84 | $0.096 | $1.71 | Feb 25, 2025 |
| Will GPT-4.5 be released by February 28?Yes | sell | 202.05 | $0.140 | $28.29 | Feb 25, 2025 |
| Will GPT-4.5 be released by February 28?Yes | sell | 200 | $0.140 | $28 | Feb 25, 2025 |
| Will GPT-4.5 be released by February 28?Yes | sell | 24.99 | $0.150 | $3.75 | Feb 25, 2025 |
| Will GPT-4.5 be released by February 28?Yes | sell | 30 | $0.150 | $4.5 | Feb 25, 2025 |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28?Yes | sell | 40 | $0.081 | $3.24 | Feb 24, 2025 |
 OpenAI becomes a for-profit before April 2025?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.080 | $80 | Feb 21, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by March 31?Yes | sell | 200 | $0.050 | $10 | Feb 20, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by March 31?Yes | sell | 165 | $0.055 | $9.08 | Feb 20, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by March 31?Yes | sell | 5 | $0.062 | $0.31 | Feb 20, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?Yes | buy | 66 | $0.480 | $31.68 | Feb 20, 2025 |
| Will GPT-4.5 be released by February 28?Yes | buy | 241 | $0.130 | $31.33 | Feb 20, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?Yes | buy | 63.53 | $0.340 | $21.6 | Feb 20, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.340 | $34 | Feb 20, 2025 |
| Will GPT-4.5 be released by February 28?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.100 | $20 | Feb 19, 2025 |
| Will GPT-4.5 be released by February 28?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.090 | $9 | Feb 19, 2025 |