Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ETUp | buy | 16.67 | $0.600 | $10 | Aug 8, 2026 |
|
| sell |
| 37.35 |
| $0.530 |
| $19.8 |
| Aug 8, 2026 |
 Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?No | buy | 375.9 | $0.640 | $240.48 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Will Warsh say "Iran" during July Press Conference?No | sell | 0.34 | $0.790 | $0.27 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Will Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?No | sell | 42 | $0.210 | $8.82 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Will João Campos win the Pernambuco Governor election?Yes | sell | 4.16 | $0.540 | $2.25 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Will Avengers: Secret Wars be delayed?Yes | sell | 13.23 | $0.400 | $5.29 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on July 31, 2026?No | sell | 42 | $0.410 | $17.22 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Will the Republican Party win the ME-02 House seat?No | sell | 21 | $0.380 | $7.98 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?No | sell | 21 | $0.560 | $11.76 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Will Chicago White Sox win the 2026 AL Central title?Yes | sell | 9.86 | $0.389 | $3.84 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?No | sell | 52.99 | $0.580 | $30.73 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Will the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 be at least 7%?No | sell | 20.5 | $0.470 | $9.64 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?No | sell | 21 | $0.220 | $4.62 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?No | sell | 53 | $0.459 | $24.32 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Will Alex Palou win the 2026 NTT IndyCar Series?No | sell | 9.7 | $0.210 | $2.04 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?No | sell | 20 | $0.380 | $7.6 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Will Scott Timko win the special election to fill the Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 12 seat?Yes | sell | 0.51 | $0.850 | $0.43 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Yes | sell | 1.15 | $0.660 | $0.76 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?No | sell | 1.15 | $0.330 | $0.38 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Yes | sell | 2.63 | $0.770 | $2.03 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?Yes | sell | 14.68 | $0.770 | $11.3 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?No | sell | 21 | $0.810 | $17.01 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?Yes | sell | 12.72 | $0.770 | $9.79 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model not be released by July 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 24.67 | $0.278 | $6.86 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3.5T yuan?Yes | sell | 9.85 | $0.330 | $3.25 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model not be released by July 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 7.39 | $0.332 | $2.45 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model not be released by July 31, 2026?No | sell | 50 | $0.656 | $32.8 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?Yes | sell | 105 | $0.344 | $36.14 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Will LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?Yes | sell | 51 | $0.308 | $15.71 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Iran full airspace closure by August 15?No | sell | 5 | $0.430 | $2.15 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3.5T yuan?Yes | sell | 9.85 | $0.330 | $3.25 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 20 | $0.380 | $7.6 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Yes | sell | 11 | $0.320 | $3.52 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Will Dalia Al-Aqidi be the MN-05 Republican nominee?No | sell | 20 | $0.180 | $3.6 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?Yes | sell | 53 | $0.307 | $16.27 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Yes | sell | 21 | $0.325 | $6.82 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?No | sell | 21 | $0.200 | $4.2 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Will "The Hawk: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?No | sell | 5.35 | $0.330 | $1.77 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Will "Ransom Canyon: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No | sell | 17 | $0.400 | $6.8 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 31, 2026?No | sell | 21 | $0.782 | $16.43 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Yes | sell | 21 | $0.580 | $12.18 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?No | sell | 21 | $0.300 | $6.3 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?Yes | sell | 21 | $0.190 | $3.99 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3.5T yuan?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.390 | $3.9 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 be at least 10%?Yes | sell | 20.23 | $0.170 | $3.44 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3.5T yuan?No | sell | 21 | $0.600 | $12.6 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Yes | sell | 21 | $0.580 | $12.18 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 29, 2026?No | sell | 53 | $0.487 | $25.82 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 be at least 9%?No | sell | 20 | $0.550 | $11 | Jul 24, 2026 |