Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 5:15AM-5:30AM ETDown | buy | 7.82 | $0.670 | $5.24 | Jan 31, 2026 |
 |
| sell |
| 28.44 |
| $0.090 |
| $2.56 |
| Jan 31, 2026 |
 Will there be at least 650 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 37.43 | $0.002 | $0.07 | Jan 31, 2026 |
| Will there be at least 700 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 101.66 | $0.001 | $0.1 | Jan 31, 2026 |
| Will there be at least 600 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 717.34 | $0.004 | $2.63 | Jan 31, 2026 |
 CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?Yes | buy | 25.13 | $0.240 | $6.03 | Jan 31, 2026 |
| Will there be at least 600 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 238.57 | $0.021 | $5 | Jan 31, 2026 |
| Will there be at least 600 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 478.77 | $0.021 | $10 | Jan 31, 2026 |
 Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged?Yes | sell | 91.47 | $0.230 | $21.04 | Jan 31, 2026 |
| Will there be at least 650 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 37.43 | $0.440 | $16.47 | Jan 30, 2026 |
 Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?Yes | sell | 91.5 | $0.180 | $16.47 | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 28.44 | $0.180 | $5.12 | Jan 28, 2026 |
 US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?Yes | buy | 36.84 | $0.190 | $7 | Jan 28, 2026 |
 Will a hurricane form by May 31?Yes | buy | 58.14 | $0.086 | $5 | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Will there be at least 700 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 101.67 | $0.197 | $20 | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?Yes | buy | 91.5 | $0.219 | $20 | Jan 28, 2026 |
 Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day?Yes | buy | 360.51 | $0.014 | $5 | Jan 28, 2026 |
 Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 2.5K | $0.002 | $5 | Jan 28, 2026 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 479.41 | $0.140 | $67.12 | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 585 | $0.004 | $2.34 | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 500 | $0.002 | $1 | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 1.67K | $0.002 | $3.33 | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged?Yes | buy | 91.47 | $0.380 | $34.76 | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 1.67K | $0.006 | $10 | Jan 27, 2026 |
 Will Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?Yes | sell | 23.04 | $0.690 | $15.9 | Jan 27, 2026 |
 SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?Yes | sell | 35.2 | $0.820 | $28.86 | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Will Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?Yes | buy | 23.04 | $0.435 | $10.02 | Jan 24, 2026 |
 Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 26?Yes | buy | 29.41 | $0.340 | $10 | Jan 24, 2026 |
 Will Keir Starmer say "Iran" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No | buy | 8.91 | $0.550 | $4.9 | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 22?Yes | buy | 11.11 | $0.180 | $2 | Jan 21, 2026 |
 Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on January 21?Yes | buy | 22.47 | $0.045 | $1 | Jan 21, 2026 |
 S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 20?Down | buy | 7.9 | $0.920 | $7.27 | Jan 20, 2026 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 606.06 | $0.012 | $7.27 | Jan 20, 2026 |
 Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by January 31?Yes | buy | 21.8 | $0.300 | $6.54 | Jan 14, 2026 |
 Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?No | buy | 77.13 | $0.065 | $5 | Jan 14, 2026 |
 Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31?Yes | sell | 75 | $0.046 | $3.45 | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 19?No | sell | 301.05 | $0.027 | $8.09 | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 479.42 | $0.120 | $57.53 | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 606.06 | $0.033 | $20 | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 19?No | buy | 301.06 | $0.180 | $54.19 | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 16?No | sell | 719.05 | $0.006 | $4.23 | Jan 13, 2026 |
| SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?Yes | buy | 35.2 | $0.740 | $26.05 | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 6PM ETDown | buy | 125 | $0.008 | $1 | Jan 11, 2026 |
 Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 45.45 | $0.022 | $1 | Jan 11, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on January 12?Down | buy | 64.81 | $0.540 | $35 | Jan 11, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ETUp | buy | 70.14 | $0.070 | $4.91 | Jan 11, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 12PM ETDown | buy | 62.97 | $0.650 | $40.93 | Jan 11, 2026 |
 Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ETDown | buy | 49.83 | $0.390 | $19.43 | Jan 11, 2026 |
 Solana Up or Down - January 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ETDown | buy | 4.84 | $0.510 | $2.47 | Jan 11, 2026 |
| Solana Up or Down - January 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ETUp | buy | 99.98 | $0.020 | $2 | Jan 11, 2026 |