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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?Yes | buy | 283.05 | $0.141 | $40 | Jul 13, 2026 |
|
| buy |
| 555.56 |
| $0.018 |
| $10 |
| Jul 10, 2026 |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 48.54 | $0.206 | $10 | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Yes | buy | 714.29 | $0.210 | $150 | Jul 8, 2026 |
 Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?Yes | buy | 64.26 | $0.467 | $30 | Jan 31, 2026 |
 US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.230 | $23 | Jan 22, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?Yes | buy | 150 | $0.140 | $21 | Jan 22, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?Yes | buy | 150 | $0.130 | $19.5 | Jan 22, 2026 |
 Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)?Yes | buy | 117 | $0.076 | $8.89 | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)?Yes | buy | 298.1 | $0.075 | $22.36 | Jan 22, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?Yes | buy | 160 | $0.130 | $20.8 | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)?Yes | sell | 541.86 | $0.011 | $5.96 | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)?Yes | sell | 1.08K | $0.012 | $12.74 | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)?Yes | sell | 2.13K | $0.013 | $27.64 | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)?Yes | sell | 150 | $0.014 | $2.1 | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)?Yes | sell | 76 | $0.015 | $1.14 | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.058 | $11.6 | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)?Yes | buy | 400 | $0.057 | $22.91 | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)?Yes | buy | 1.1K | $0.021 | $22.74 | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)?Yes | buy | 1.3K | $0.019 | $24.7 | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.018 | $17.77 | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)?Yes | buy | 800 | $0.017 | $13.54 | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)?Yes | buy | 320 | $0.016 | $5.12 | Jan 22, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?Yes | buy | 80 | $0.670 | $53.6 | Jan 13, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.440 | $22 | Jan 10, 2026 |
 Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?Yes | buy | 84 | $0.005 | $0.41 | Dec 28, 2025 |
 Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?Yes | buy | 300 | $0.617 | $185.16 | Sep 29, 2025 |
 Another Israel strike on Yemen by Friday?No | buy | 70 | $0.640 | $44.8 | Jul 10, 2025 |
 Houthi strike on Israel before August?Yes | sell | 200 | $0.190 | $38 | Jul 10, 2025 |
| Houthi strike on Israel before August?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.250 | $50 | Jul 10, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.319 | $63.8 | Jul 9, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.340 | $34 | Jul 9, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?Yes | buy | 500 | $0.670 | $334.9 | Jul 9, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.339 | $33.9 | Jul 9, 2025 |
| Houthi strike on Israel before August?Yes | sell | 76 | $0.522 | $39.64 | Jul 7, 2025 |
| Houthi strike on Israel before August?Yes | buy | 255 | $0.500 | $127.5 | Jul 7, 2025 |
| Houthi strike on Israel before August?Yes | buy | 392.12 | $0.426 | $166.89 | Jul 7, 2025 |
| Houthi strike on Israel before August?Yes | buy | 127.1 | $0.369 | $46.92 | Jul 7, 2025 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: JulyYes | buy | 70 | $0.600 | $42 | Jul 3, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?Yes | buy | 360 | $0.568 | $204.42 | Jul 2, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?Yes | buy | 500 | $0.570 | $285 | Jul 2, 2025 |
 Israel military action against Iran in July?No | sell | 134 | $0.730 | $97.82 | Jul 1, 2025 |
 Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025?Yes | buy | 180 | $0.570 | $102.6 | Jun 29, 2025 |
 Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.658 | $65.77 | Jun 27, 2025 |
 Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.240 | $240 | Jun 26, 2025 |
 Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?Yes | sell | 830 | $0.997 | $827.51 | Jun 25, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?Yes | buy | 50.82 | $0.510 | $25.92 | Jun 25, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?Yes | buy | 191.98 | $0.135 | $25.83 | Jun 25, 2025 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?Yes | buy | 150 | $0.961 | $144.11 | Jun 24, 2025 |
 Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen before July?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.920 | $92 | Jun 24, 2025 |