Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Yes | buy | 621.31 | $0.241 | $149.66 | Jun 19, 2025 |
 |
| sell |
| 241.17 |
| $0.621 |
| $149.66 |
| Jun 19, 2025 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?Yes | buy | 964.7 | $0.470 | $453.41 | Jun 15, 2025 |
 US-Iran nuclear deal before July?No | sell | 501 | $0.905 | $453.41 | Jun 14, 2025 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before July?No | buy | 136.64 | $0.740 | $101.11 | May 5, 2025 |
 Will Trump recognize Somaliland in first 100 days?Yes | sell | 17.24 | $0.055 | $0.95 | Mar 27, 2025 |
 Will the US sanction Ukraine before April?No | buy | 151.56 | $0.946 | $143.38 | Mar 6, 2025 |
 Rep. Al Green censured before April?Yes | sell | 110.87 | $0.999 | $110.76 | Mar 6, 2025 |
| Rep. Al Green censured before April?Yes | buy | 110.88 | $0.902 | $100 | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Will the US sanction Ukraine before April?No | buy | 40 | $0.936 | $37.44 | Mar 5, 2025 |
 Will Trump say 'DOGE' or 'Department of Government Efficiency' during the 2025 State of the Union?Yes | buy | 65.47 | $0.820 | $53.69 | Feb 19, 2025 |
| Will Trump say 'DOGE' or 'Department of Government Efficiency' during the 2025 State of the Union?Yes | buy | 23.25 | $0.800 | $18.6 | Feb 17, 2025 |
 Will Netanyahu meet with MBS before April?No | sell | 20 | $0.930 | $18.6 | Feb 17, 2025 |
| Will Trump say 'DOGE' or 'Department of Government Efficiency' during the 2025 State of the Union?Yes | buy | 159.76 | $0.800 | $127.81 | Feb 16, 2025 |
| Will Netanyahu meet with MBS before April?No | sell | 26 | $0.940 | $24.44 | Feb 16, 2025 |
 Trump signs national abortion ban?No | sell | 118.82 | $0.870 | $103.37 | Feb 16, 2025 |
| Will Trump say 'DOGE' or 'Department of Government Efficiency' during the 2025 State of the Union?Yes | buy | 88.59 | $0.800 | $70.87 | Feb 16, 2025 |
| Trump signs national abortion ban?No | buy | 98.8 | $0.840 | $82.99 | Jan 26, 2025 |
 Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?Yes | buy | 99.81 | $0.940 | $93.82 | Jan 18, 2025 |
 TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?Yes | buy | 120.28 | $0.810 | $97.43 | Jan 17, 2025 |
| Will Netanyahu meet with MBS before April?No | buy | 67 | $0.820 | $54.94 | Jan 13, 2025 |
 Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?Yes | sell | 170.03 | $0.860 | $146.23 | Jan 13, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?Yes | buy | 170.03 | $0.580 | $98.62 | Jan 12, 2025 |
 Will Biden pardon Jim Biden?No | buy | 62.28 | $0.830 | $51.69 | Jan 6, 2025 |
| Will Biden pardon Jim Biden?No | buy | 13.81 | $0.840 | $11.6 | Jan 5, 2025 |
 Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?No | buy | 85.51 | $0.870 | $74.39 | Jan 5, 2025 |
| Will Biden pardon Jim Biden?No | buy | 35.3 | $0.850 | $30 | Jan 5, 2025 |
| Will Biden pardon Jim Biden?No | buy | 28.21 | $0.790 | $22.29 | Dec 26, 2024 |
 Will Volodymyr Zelensky attend presidential inauguration?No | buy | 104 | $0.870 | $90.48 | Dec 26, 2024 |
 Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?No | sell | 160.93 | $0.700 | $112.65 | Dec 26, 2024 |
| Will Volodymyr Zelensky attend presidential inauguration?No | buy | 6.33 | $0.780 | $4.94 | Dec 24, 2024 |
 Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days?No | sell | 6.02 | $0.840 | $5.06 | Dec 24, 2024 |
| Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?No | buy | 7.57 | $0.740 | $5.6 | Dec 22, 2024 |
| Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?No | buy | 49.44 | $0.740 | $36.59 | Dec 22, 2024 |
 Will Kamala Harris attend presidential inauguration?Yes | sell | 39.34 | $0.930 | $36.59 | Dec 22, 2024 |
 Will Nancy Pelosi attend presidential inauguration?No | sell | 10 | $0.560 | $5.6 | Dec 22, 2024 |
| Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?No | buy | 40.54 | $0.740 | $30 | Dec 22, 2024 |
 Another Trump Cabinet nominee withdrawn before inauguration?No | sell | 40 | $0.750 | $30 | Dec 22, 2024 |
| Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?No | buy | 23.58 | $0.720 | $16.98 | Dec 22, 2024 |
 Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?No | sell | 28.3 | $0.600 | $16.98 | Dec 22, 2024 |
| Will Kamala Harris attend presidential inauguration?Yes | buy | 39.34 | $0.940 | $36.98 | Dec 22, 2024 |
| Another Trump Cabinet nominee withdrawn before inauguration?No | buy | 40 | $0.770 | $30.8 | Dec 22, 2024 |
| Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?No | buy | 71.31 | $0.701 | $50 | Dec 22, 2024 |
| Will Nancy Pelosi attend presidential inauguration?No | buy | 10 | $0.660 | $6.6 | Dec 22, 2024 |
| Will Volodymyr Zelensky attend presidential inauguration?No | buy | 70 | $0.730 | $51.1 | Dec 22, 2024 |
 Will Lara Trump be appointed as the next Florida senator?No | sell | 179.06 | $0.980 | $175.48 | Dec 22, 2024 |
| Will Lara Trump be appointed as the next Florida senator?No | buy | 75 | $0.800 | $60 | Dec 16, 2024 |
| Will Volodymyr Zelensky attend presidential inauguration?No | sell | 96.98 | $0.810 | $78.55 | Dec 16, 2024 |
| Will Volodymyr Zelensky attend presidential inauguration?No | buy | 43.37 | $0.830 | $36 | Dec 15, 2024 |
| Will Lara Trump be appointed as the next Florida senator?No | sell | 80 | $0.450 | $36 | Dec 15, 2024 |