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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 116.28 | $0.830 | $99.42 | +$2.91 |
 Netanyahu out by end of 2026? |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 10.21 | $0.900 | $9.19 | 16h ago |
|
| Yes |
| 158.23 |
| $0.332 |
| $83.07 |
| +$30.46 |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? | No | 51.81 | $0.859 | $51.78 | +$7.27 |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | No | 46.33 | $0.897 | $42.62 | +$1.08 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 125.77 | $0.560 | $42.13 | -$28.26 |
 Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 57.77 | $0.594 | $40.73 | +$6.4 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | No | 31.02 | $0.793 | $30.01 | +$5.41 |
 Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 | Yes | 185.24 | $0.157 | $28.71 | -$0.36 |
 Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? | No | 22.82 | $0.780 | $22.63 | +$4.83 |
 Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30? | No | 22.69 | $0.814 | $21.33 | +$2.85 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 36 | $0.818 | $20.83 | -$8.63 |
 Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? | Yes | 29.8 | $0.568 | $19.52 | +$2.58 |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | No | 21.23 | $0.440 | $18.57 | +$9.23 |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? | No | 24.04 | $0.345 | $17.31 | +$9.01 |
 Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 46.9 | $0.309 | $12.9 | -$1.62 |
 Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026? | No | 12.12 | $0.966 | $11.98 | +$0.27 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 82.03 | $0.500 | $11.9 | -$29.1 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | No | 22.09 | $0.540 | $10.38 | -$1.55 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | No | 82.34 | $0.194 | $8.23 | -$7.74 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | No | 49.22 | $0.341 | $6.4 | -$10.39 |
 US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by September 30? | Yes | 45.81 | $0.115 | $3.44 | -$1.83 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? | Yes | 132.01 | $0.059 | $3.3 | -$4.43 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 3.5 | $0.520 | $2.82 | +$1 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 35.44 | $0.090 | $2.3 | -$0.89 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | No | 38.5 | $0.080 | $1.73 | -$1.35 |
| buy |
| 25.83 |
| $0.890 |
| $22.99 |
| 18h ago |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 10.29 | $0.910 | $9.36 | 20h ago |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Yes | sell | 36.38 | $0.500 | $18.19 | 1d ago |
 Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Yes | sell | 64.73 | $0.950 | $61.49 | 1d ago |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Yes | sell | 18.5 | $0.940 | $17.39 | 1d ago |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Yes | buy | 10.05 | $0.590 | $5.93 | 1d ago |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Yes | sell | 10.24 | $0.590 | $6.04 | 1d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?Yes | buy | 41.94 | $0.036 | $1.51 | 2d ago |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?No | sell | 21.98 | $0.920 | $20.22 | 2d ago |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Yes | sell | 20.31 | $0.470 | $9.55 | 4d ago |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Yes | buy | 22.86 | $0.580 | $13.26 | 4d ago |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Yes | buy | 9.15 | $0.600 | $5.49 | 4d ago |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Yes | buy | 40.31 | $0.590 | $23.78 | 4d ago |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Yes | buy | 11.17 | $0.460 | $5.14 | 4d ago |
 Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Yes | sell | 11.43 | $0.190 | $2.17 | 4d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?Yes | buy | 68.6 | $0.050 | $3.43 | 7d ago |
| US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by September 30?Yes | buy | 22.73 | $0.110 | $2.5 | 8d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 11.27 | $0.370 | $4.17 | 8d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Yes | buy | 66.36 | $0.033 | $2.19 | 9d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 6.92 | $0.370 | $2.56 | 9d ago |
 Will Noor Tarun win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?No | buy | 11.19 | $0.985 | $11.02 | 10d ago |
 Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?No | buy | 11.3 | $0.730 | $8.25 | 10d ago |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?No | buy | 11.3 | $0.730 | $8.25 | 10d ago |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Yes | buy | 11.44 | $0.511 | $5.85 | 11d ago |
 Will Fatima Shaban win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?Yes | buy | 6.64 | $0.550 | $3.65 | 11d ago |
 Will Ahsanul Hafiz win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?No | buy | 6.13 | $0.550 | $3.37 | 11d ago |
| US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by September 30?Yes | buy | 23.08 | $0.120 | $2.77 | 11d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Yes | sell | 711.06 | $0.003 | $2.13 | 12d ago |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?No | sell | 5.45 | $0.710 | $3.87 | 13d ago |
| Will Ahsanul Hafiz win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?No | buy | 5.94 | $0.530 | $3.15 | 13d ago |
 Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?Yes | buy | 4.86 | $0.290 | $1.41 | 13d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?Yes | buy | 138.75 | $0.016 | $2.22 | 13d ago |
 Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 41.6 | $0.100 | $4.16 | 13d ago |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 23.51 | $0.960 | $22.57 | 14d ago |
 US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?Yes | buy | 8.75 | $0.999 | $8.74 | 14d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Yes | sell | 23.3 | $0.320 | $7.46 | 14d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 44.48 | $0.029 | $1.29 | 16d ago |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?No | buy | 21.76 | $0.340 | $7.4 | 16d ago |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?No | buy | 22 | $0.840 | $18.48 | 16d ago |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?No | buy | 11.14 | $0.840 | $9.36 | 16d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Yes | sell | 19.92 | $0.120 | $2.39 | 17d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 48.5 | $0.040 | $1.94 | 17d ago |
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?Yes | buy | 11.46 | $0.998 | $11.44 | 17d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 65 | $0.034 | $2.21 | 17d ago |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?No | sell | 24.02 | $0.610 | $14.65 | 17d ago |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?No | buy | 21.79 | $0.340 | $7.41 | 18d ago |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?No | buy | 28.14 | $0.210 | $5.91 | 18d ago |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?No | sell | 6.22 | $0.700 | $4.35 | 18d ago |
| Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 22.82 | $0.780 | $17.8 | 18d ago |