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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 39.35 | $0.762 | $16.72 | -$13.28 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?No | sell | 12.19 | $0.900 | $10.97 | 4h ago |
|
| Yes |
| 28.47 |
| $0.512 |
| $14.95 |
| +$0.36 |
 Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 251.44 | $0.037 | $14.21 | +$4.85 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 15.15 | $0.660 | $12.2 | +$2.2 |
 Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | Yes | 12.66 | $0.790 | $12.09 | +$2.09 |
 Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | Yes | 13.34 | $0.750 | $10.14 | +$0.14 |
| Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 8.33 | $0.600 | $7.62 | +$2.62 |
 Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 459.76 | $0.011 | $7.13 | +$2.13 |
 Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 52.63 | $0.190 | $7.11 | -$2.89 |
 Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 253.92 | $0.023 | $6.73 | +$0.89 |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 13.73 | $0.510 | $6.66 | -$0.34 |
 Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 416.67 | $0.012 | $6.46 | +$1.46 |
 Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 84.21 | $0.038 | $5.6 | +$2.4 |
 Anthropic IPO before 2027? | Yes | 6.17 | $0.810 | $5.4 | +$0.4 |
 Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 894.87 | $0.013 | $4.92 | -$7.08 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 7.35 | $0.680 | $4.45 | -$0.55 |
 Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 625 | $0.008 | $2.19 | -$2.81 |
 Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 29.41 | $0.170 | $2.15 | -$2.85 |
 Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | Yes | 16.67 | $0.120 | $1.83 | -$0.17 |
 Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 272.73 | $0.011 | $1.77 | -$1.23 |
 Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? | Yes | 14.71 | $0.340 | $1.1 | -$3.9 |
 Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" in September? | No | 9.09 | $0.550 | $1 | -$4 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 14.76 | $0.090 | $0.96 | -$0.37 |
 Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 250 | $0.008 | $0.13 | -$1.88 |
| buy |
| 3.85 |
| $0.260 |
| $1 |
| 13d ago |
| Will the next Mythos-Class model be released on August 27, 2026?Yes | buy | 4 | $0.500 | $2 | 13d ago |
| Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" in September?No | buy | 9.09 | $0.550 | $5 | 13d ago |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Yes | buy | 13.33 | $0.750 | $10 | 13d ago |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?No | buy | 12.2 | $0.820 | $10 | 13d ago |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 22.44 | $0.446 | $10 | 13d ago |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 15.15 | $0.660 | $10 | 13d ago |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 54.95 | $0.091 | $5 | 13d ago |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | sell | 97.78 | $0.056 | $5.48 | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 21.76 | $0.965 | $21 | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 4.28 | $0.972 | $4.16 | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 33.33 | $0.922 | $30.73 | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 13.73 | $0.510 | $7 | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Yes | sell | 14.7 | $0.400 | $5.88 | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | sell | 21.05 | $0.052 | $1.09 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 4.29 | $0.700 | $3 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 21.76 | $0.459 | $10 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 33.33 | $0.300 | $10 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Yes | buy | 14.71 | $0.340 | $5 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Yes | buy | 16.67 | $0.120 | $2 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?Yes | buy | 26.32 | $0.190 | $5 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?Yes | buy | 26.32 | $0.190 | $5 | Jul 15, 2026 |
 Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 6.85 | $0.730 | $5 | Jul 15, 2026 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No | sell | 6.94 | $0.987 | $6.85 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 8.33 | $0.600 | $5 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?Yes | buy | 17.24 | $0.870 | $15 | Jul 15, 2026 |
 Will US withdraw from NATO by August 31?Yes | sell | 264.73 | $0.005 | $1.38 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes | buy | 459.76 | $0.011 | $5 | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 39.35 | $0.762 | $30 | Jul 6, 2026 |
 Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?Yes | buy | 14.29 | $0.350 | $5 | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?Yes | buy | 11.63 | $0.430 | $5 | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO by August 31?Yes | buy | 264.74 | $0.038 | $10 | Jul 5, 2026 |
 Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No | sell | 10.86 | $0.920 | $9.99 | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 13.62 | $0.130 | $1.77 | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 18.8 | $0.230 | $4.32 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 12.74 | $0.140 | $1.78 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 21.2 | $0.230 | $4.88 | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026?Yes | sell | 37.48 | $0.002 | $0.07 | Jun 20, 2026 |
 Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes | sell | 49.78 | $0.065 | $3.24 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?Yes | sell | 11.7 | $0.031 | $0.36 | Jun 17, 2026 |
 Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?Yes | buy | 6.25 | $0.320 | $2 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?Yes | buy | 15.63 | $0.320 | $5 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.500 | $5 | Jun 16, 2026 |
 Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?No | sell | 13.46 | $0.850 | $11.44 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?Yes | buy | 9.62 | $0.520 | $5 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.250 | $10 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No | sell | 6.94 | $0.820 | $5.69 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes | buy | 7.35 | $0.680 | $5 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Anthropic IPO before 2027?Yes | buy | 6.17 | $0.810 | $5 | Jun 16, 2026 |