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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | No | 20.72 | $0.253 | $17.71 | +$12.46 |
 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 16.26 | $0.640 | $10.41 | Jul 5, 2026 |
 |
| Yes |
| 25.01 |
| $0.407 |
| $12.13 |
| +$1.94 |
 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | 12.35 | $0.446 | $6.24 | +$0.73 |
| Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 28.52 | $0.230 | $5.7 | -$0.86 |
 Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Yes | 91.69 | $0.160 | $5.5 | -$9.17 |
 Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | No | 5.86 | $0.880 | $5.48 | +$0.32 |
 Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 9.94 | $0.256 | $4.53 | +$1.99 |
 Will Russia capture Prymorske by September 30, 2026? | No | 4.38 | $0.879 | $4.33 | +$0.48 |
 Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 5 | $0.380 | $4.33 | +$2.43 |
 Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? | Yes | 16.8 | $0.388 | $4.28 | -$2.24 |
| Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 13.24 | $0.167 | $3.9 | +$1.69 |
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 5 | $0.550 | $3.73 | +$0.98 |
 Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? | No | 4.2 | $0.831 | $3.59 | +$0.1 |
 Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 | No | 4.36 | $0.330 | $3.58 | +$2.14 |
| Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 61.22 | $0.110 | $3.52 | -$3.21 |
 Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31? | Yes | 10 | $0.370 | $3.4 | -$0.3 |
 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 50 | $0.100 | $3.25 | -$1.75 |
 Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 16.4 | $0.334 | $3.03 | -$2.44 |
 Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 29.38 | $0.152 | $2.1 | -$2.38 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31? | No | 2.23 | $0.770 | $2.02 | +$0.3 |
| Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2.04 | $0.587 | $1.83 | +$0.63 |
| Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? | No | 1.82 | $0.890 | $1.71 | +$0.1 |
 Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 3.81 | $0.445 | $1.62 | -$0.08 |
 Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | No | 1.78 | $0.900 | $1.62 | +$0.02 |
| Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? | Yes | 2.51 | $0.630 | $1.61 | +$0.03 |
| sell |
| 15 |
| $0.880 |
| $13.2 |
| Jul 5, 2026 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No | sell | 14.73 | $0.958 | $14.11 | Jul 5, 2026 |
 Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Yes | sell | 17.73 | $0.840 | $14.89 | Jul 5, 2026 |
 US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?No | sell | 18.23 | $0.900 | $16.41 | Jul 5, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 19.42 | $0.880 | $17.09 | Jul 5, 2026 |
 Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 62.91 | $0.549 | $34.56 | Jul 5, 2026 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 57.26 | $0.790 | $45.24 | Jul 5, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?No | sell | 81.9 | $0.880 | $72.07 | Jul 5, 2026 |
 Iran Nuke before 2027?No | sell | 78.92 | $0.935 | $73.79 | Jul 5, 2026 |
 Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?No | sell | 6.55 | $0.200 | $1.31 | Jul 5, 2026 |
 Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes | sell | 2.49 | $0.540 | $1.34 | Jul 5, 2026 |
 Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 18.07 | $0.008 | $0.14 | Jul 5, 2026 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 8.68 | $0.280 | $2.43 | Jul 4, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 4.4 | $0.550 | $2.42 | Jul 4, 2026 |
| Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?No | buy | 6.55 | $0.200 | $1.31 | Jul 4, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 15 | $0.590 | $8.85 | Jul 4, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 28.3 | $0.410 | $11.6 | Jul 4, 2026 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?No | sell | 2.09 | $0.870 | $1.82 | Jul 4, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 1.28 | $0.780 | $1 | Jul 4, 2026 |
 Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Yes | sell | 0.12 | $0.520 | $0.06 | Jul 4, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Yes | sell | 0.06 | $0.520 | $0.03 | Jul 4, 2026 |
 Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 4.7 | $0.230 | $1.08 | Jul 4, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Yes | sell | 0.26 | $0.460 | $0.12 | Jul 4, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Yes | sell | 0.32 | $0.380 | $0.12 | Jul 3, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Yes | sell | 1.22 | $0.390 | $0.48 | Jul 3, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Yes | sell | 3.06 | $0.370 | $1.13 | Jul 3, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Yes | sell | 1.87 | $0.370 | $0.69 | Jul 3, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?Yes | sell | 1.13 | $0.520 | $0.59 | Jul 3, 2026 |
 US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No | buy | 5 | $0.380 | $1.9 | Jul 3, 2026 |
 Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Yes | sell | 5.99 | $0.180 | $1.08 | Jul 3, 2026 |
 Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 4.84 | $0.455 | $2.2 | Jul 3, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?Yes | sell | 2.4 | $0.520 | $1.25 | Jul 3, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?Yes | sell | 0.49 | $0.520 | $0.25 | Jul 3, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 2.29 | $0.560 | $1.28 | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Yes | buy | 9.29 | $0.140 | $1.3 | Jul 2, 2026 |
 Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?Yes | sell | 0.4 | $0.660 | $0.26 | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 2.44 | $0.450 | $1.1 | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Yes | sell | 2.5 | $0.840 | $2.1 | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 0.19 | $0.520 | $0.1 | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?Yes | buy | 3.79 | $0.470 | $1.78 | Jul 2, 2026 |
 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?No | buy | 5 | $0.370 | $1.85 | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Yes | buy | 7.09 | $0.330 | $2.34 | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?No | buy | 1.42 | $0.860 | $1.22 | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?No | sell | 1.5 | $0.850 | $1.28 | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Yes | buy | 6.22 | $0.270 | $1.68 | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes | buy | 4.95 | $0.220 | $1.09 | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?No | sell | 3.1 | $0.850 | $2.64 | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?No | sell | 1.9 | $0.850 | $1.62 | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?No | sell | 2.1 | $0.850 | $1.79 | Jul 1, 2026 |