Analytics
The cohort performance summary keeps its original period. These positions are a separate Polymarket observation and do not establish complete position history.
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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 48.67 | $0.532 | $46.11 | +$20.22 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?No | sell | 1.05 | $0.952 | $1 | 5d ago |
|
| No |
| 33.91 |
| $0.670 |
| $24.42 |
| +$1.7 |
 Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 44.53 | $0.470 | $22.93 | +$2 |
 Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | No | 31.29 | $0.628 | $20.29 | +$0.64 |
 Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 19.43 | $0.470 | $10.2 | +$1.07 |
 Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 10.34 | $0.903 | $9.97 | +$0.63 |
 Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? | Yes | 11.29 | $0.069 | $4.76 | +$3.98 |
 Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | No | 8.03 | $0.400 | $3.97 | +$0.76 |
 Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | No | 2.83 | $0.713 | $2.65 | +$0.63 |
 Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? | Yes | 1.12 | $0.900 | $1.07 | +$0.06 |
 Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026? | Yes | 1.11 | $0.910 | $1.05 | +$0.04 |
 Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | No | 1.07 | $0.940 | $1.03 | +$0.02 |
 Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 1.06 | $0.953 | $1.02 | +$0.01 |
 Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 1.07 | $0.950 | $1.01 | -$0.01 |
 Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027? | No | 1.08 | $0.939 | $1.01 | -$0 |
 Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? | No | 0.95 | $0.922 | $0.93 | +$0.05 |
 Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? | No | 0.79 | $0.922 | $0.77 | +$0.04 |
 Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027? | No | 0.69 | $0.919 | $0.67 | +$0.04 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027? | No | 0.66 | $0.959 | $0.64 | +$0.01 |
 Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? | No | 0.43 | $0.880 | $0.4 | +$0.02 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? | No | 0.4 | $0.555 | $0.39 | +$0.17 |
 Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 39.16 | $0.020 | $0.37 | -$0.41 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? | No | 0.12 | $0.260 | $0.12 | +$0.09 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026? | Yes | 7.85 | $0.030 | $0.04 | -$0.2 |
| buy |
| 1.04 |
| $0.967 |
| $1.01 |
| 8d ago |
 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes | sell | 0.53 | $0.884 | $0.47 | 8d ago |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes | sell | 0.17 | $0.884 | $0.15 | 8d ago |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes | sell | 0.44 | $0.884 | $0.39 | 8d ago |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?No | buy | 1.12 | $0.900 | $1.01 | 11d ago |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes | buy | 1.14 | $0.888 | $1.01 | 11d ago |
| Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?No | sell | 1.04 | $0.993 | $1.03 | 12d ago |
 Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?No | sell | 0.36 | $0.920 | $0.33 | 14d ago |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?No | sell | 0.87 | $0.920 | $0.8 | 17d ago |
| Trump out as President before 2027?No | buy | 1.06 | $0.950 | $1.01 | 20d ago |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No | buy | 1.82 | $0.670 | $1.22 | Aug 9, 2026 |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?No | sell | 1.03 | $0.978 | $1.01 | Aug 9, 2026 |
 Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Yes | sell | 5.61 | $0.120 | $0.67 | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No | buy | 2.61 | $0.670 | $1.75 | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No | buy | 14.93 | $0.670 | $10 | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?No | buy | 1.06 | $0.950 | $1.01 | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Yes | buy | 5.61 | $0.180 | $1.01 | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No | buy | 2.18 | $0.670 | $1.46 | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No | buy | 8.7 | $0.670 | $5.83 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No | buy | 1.81 | $0.670 | $1.21 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?No | buy | 1.04 | $0.974 | $1.01 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027?No | buy | 1.06 | $0.953 | $1.01 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?No | buy | 1.07 | $0.940 | $1.01 | Aug 5, 2026 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 1.14 | $0.860 | $0.98 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 1.15 | $0.880 | $1.01 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No | buy | 1.87 | $0.670 | $1.25 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?No | buy | 1.07 | $0.940 | $1.01 | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?No | buy | 1.05 | $0.966 | $1.01 | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.0% or lower before 2027?No | sell | 0.1 | $0.978 | $0.1 | Jul 21, 2026 |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 16.62 | $0.068 | $1.13 | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.0% or lower before 2027?No | sell | 0.97 | $0.978 | $0.95 | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?No | sell | 0.94 | $0.954 | $0.9 | Jul 14, 2026 |
 US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 13.85 | $0.130 | $1.8 | Jul 8, 2026 |
 Bank of England rate hike in 2026?Yes | sell | 1.24 | $0.220 | $0.27 | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?No | sell | 1.08 | $0.940 | $1.02 | Jul 8, 2026 |
 Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 7.11 | $0.038 | $0.27 | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 3.04 | $0.038 | $0.12 | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?No | buy | 1.09 | $0.930 | $1.01 | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Bank of England rate hike in 2026?Yes | sell | 1.41 | $0.160 | $0.23 | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027?No | sell | 0.39 | $0.955 | $0.37 | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 1.39 | $0.038 | $0.05 | Jul 4, 2026 |
 Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?No | buy | 2.15 | $0.470 | $1.01 | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?No | buy | 6.23 | $0.470 | $2.93 | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?No | buy | 5.83 | $0.460 | $2.68 | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?No | buy | 2.65 | $0.460 | $1.22 | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?No | buy | 3.85 | $0.460 | $1.77 | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?No | buy | 2.28 | $0.470 | $1.07 | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?No | buy | 4.54 | $0.460 | $2.09 | Jul 2, 2026 |
 Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?Yes | sell | 3.88 | $0.380 | $1.47 | Jul 2, 2026 |