Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Is the Cybertruck manifesto real?Yes | buy | 3.31 | $0.998 | $3.3 | Jan 8, 2025 |
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| buy |
| 1.7 |
| $0.880 |
| $1.5 |
| Jan 8, 2025 |
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?Yes | buy | 2.35 | $0.810 | $1.9 | Jan 8, 2025 |
Tesla bot at Trump inauguration?No | buy | 1.69 | $0.948 | $1.6 | Jan 8, 2025 |
Will Facebook implement "community notes" before April?Yes | buy | 2.92 | $0.650 | $1.9 | Jan 8, 2025 |
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2024?No | buy | 0.67 | $0.990 | $0.66 | Dec 17, 2024 |
OpenAI settlement with NYT by end of 2024?No | buy | 0.73 | $0.947 | $0.69 | Dec 17, 2024 |
OpenAI becomes a for-profit before April 2025?No | buy | 0.42 | $0.880 | $0.37 | Dec 17, 2024 |
GPT-5 not announced in 2024?Yes | buy | 1.2 | $0.950 | $1.14 | Dec 17, 2024 |
Price of eggs goes up in Trump's first month?Yes | buy | 0.22 | $0.540 | $0.12 | Nov 29, 2024 |
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?Yes | buy | 0.83 | $0.800 | $0.66 | Nov 29, 2024 |
Another Trump Cabinet nominee withdrawn before inauguration?No | buy | 0.65 | $0.540 | $0.35 | Nov 29, 2024 |
Michel Barnier out as prime minister of France in 2024?No | buy | 1.66 | $0.610 | $1.01 | Nov 29, 2024 |
Will Silver close over $40 at the end of 2024?No | buy | 0.66 | $0.920 | $0.61 | Nov 15, 2024 |
No change in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting?No | buy | 0.27 | $0.979 | $0.26 | Nov 15, 2024 |
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 0.51 | $0.630 | $0.32 | Nov 15, 2024 |
Will Fed cut interest rates 5 times in 2024?No | buy | 0.26 | $0.986 | $0.26 | Nov 15, 2024 |
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before October?No | buy | 0.62 | $0.989 | $0.61 | Sep 21, 2024 |
Iran military response before October?No | buy | 0.14 | $0.910 | $0.13 | Sep 21, 2024 |
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?No | buy | 0.41 | $0.700 | $0.29 | Sep 21, 2024 |
Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day?Yes | buy | 0.26 | $0.972 | $0.25 | Sep 14, 2024 |
Trump-Vance Republican ticket on election day?Yes | buy | 0.12 | $0.940 | $0.11 | Aug 24, 2024 |
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?No | buy | 0.17 | $0.870 | $0.15 | Aug 24, 2024 |
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through Aug 31?Yes | buy | 0.21 | $0.981 | $0.21 | Aug 24, 2024 |
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee?No | buy | 0.63 | $0.983 | $0.62 | Aug 24, 2024 |
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?Yes | buy | 0.68 | $0.760 | $0.52 | Aug 24, 2024 |
$BTC dips below $50k before September?No | buy | 170 | $0.008 | $1.36 | Aug 5, 2024 |
Trump in jail before election day?No | buy | 0.31 | $0.960 | $0.3 | Aug 5, 2024 |
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024?No | buy | 0.27 | $0.920 | $0.25 | Aug 5, 2024 |
Ethereum above $3,000 on August 9?No | buy | 0.27 | $0.960 | $0.26 | Aug 5, 2024 |
Will Kamala announce VP pick by Aug 7?Yes | buy | 0.24 | $0.989 | $0.24 | Aug 5, 2024 |
Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross less than $84m 2nd weekend?Yes | buy | 372.4 | $0.005 | $1.85 | Aug 5, 2024 |
Will Beirut airport close by August 5?No | buy | 0.34 | $0.989 | $0.34 | Aug 5, 2024 |
Will Sherrod Brown be the Democratic Presidential Nominee?Yes | buy | 12.3K | $0.001 | $12.3 | Aug 5, 2024 |
Ethereum all time high in 2024?No | buy | 0.55 | $0.760 | $0.42 | Aug 5, 2024 |
Ethereum all time high in Q3 2024?No | buy | 0.29 | $0.920 | $0.27 | Aug 5, 2024 |
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, D HouseNo | buy | 0.46 | $0.790 | $0.36 | Aug 5, 2024 |
Will a Democrat win Rhode Island Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 1.08 | $0.940 | $1.02 | Aug 5, 2024 |
Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024?No | sell | 1.05 | $0.973 | $1.02 | Aug 5, 2024 |
Will a Republican win Idaho Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 1.08 | $0.950 | $1.03 | Aug 5, 2024 |
Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election?Republican | sell | 1.19 | $0.550 | $0.65 | Aug 5, 2024 |
Edmundo González arrested before October?No | sell | 1.42 | $0.700 | $0.99 | Aug 5, 2024 |
Will a Republican win Missouri Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 1.05 | $0.941 | $0.99 | Aug 5, 2024 |
Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 196 | $0.003 | $0.59 | Aug 5, 2024 |
Trump wins every swing state?No | sell | 0.83 | $0.770 | $0.64 | Jul 31, 2024 |
Gabriel Attal next Prime Minister of France?No | sell | 0.5 | $0.916 | $0.46 | Jul 31, 2024 |
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate?No | sell | 0.89 | $0.710 | $0.63 | Jul 31, 2024 |
Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024?No | buy | 1.05 | $0.950 | $1 | Jul 31, 2024 |
Will Abraham Hamadeh Win the 2024 Republican Primary for Arizona's 8th Congressional District?Yes | buy | 1.09 | $0.989 | $1.08 | Jul 31, 2024 |
Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election?Republican | buy | 1.19 | $0.620 | $0.74 | Jul 31, 2024 |