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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?Yes | sell | 1.72 | $0.350 | $0.6 | May 17, 2026 |
 |
| sell |
| 4.14 |
| $0.001 |
| $0 |
| May 17, 2026 |
 Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | sell | 88.55 | $0.001 | $0.09 | May 17, 2026 |
 European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?Yes | sell | 4.16 | $0.035 | $0.15 | May 17, 2026 |
 Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?Yes | sell | 2.94 | $0.029 | $0.09 | May 17, 2026 |
 Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | sell | 123.87 | $0.001 | $0.12 | May 17, 2026 |
 Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | sell | 63.5 | $0.003 | $0.19 | May 17, 2026 |
 Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?Yes | sell | 3.12 | $0.370 | $1.15 | May 17, 2026 |
 Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | sell | 5.4 | $0.200 | $1.08 | May 17, 2026 |
 Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | sell | 33.95 | $0.040 | $1.36 | May 17, 2026 |
 GTA 6 launch postponed again?Yes | sell | 9.58 | $0.200 | $1.92 | May 17, 2026 |
 Netanyahu out by end of 2026?No | sell | 10 | $0.470 | $4.7 | May 17, 2026 |
 Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $40B and $50B at market close on IPO day?Yes | sell | 26.31 | $0.047 | $1.24 | May 17, 2026 |
 Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 10.34 | $0.190 | $1.96 | May 17, 2026 |
| Will Perplexity’s market cap be greater than $100B at market close on IPO day?Yes | sell | 42.28 | $0.061 | $2.56 | May 17, 2026 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No | sell | 23.8 | $0.951 | $22.63 | May 17, 2026 |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 10.34 | $0.290 | $3 | Apr 12, 2026 |
| Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?Yes | buy | 1.72 | $0.580 | $1 | Apr 12, 2026 |
 Will Leavitt say "Death to America" during the next White House press briefing?No | buy | 8.06 | $0.620 | $5 | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Will Leavitt say "President" 60+ times during the next White House press briefing?No | buy | 5.56 | $0.360 | $2 | Apr 8, 2026 |
 US forces enter Iran by December 31?Yes | sell | 11.44 | $0.997 | $11.41 | Apr 7, 2026 |
 Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 5.88 | $0.340 | $2 | Apr 3, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No | buy | 23.81 | $0.630 | $15 | Apr 2, 2026 |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 7.96 | $0.001 | $0.01 | Apr 2, 2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30?No | buy | 11.36 | $0.440 | $5 | Apr 1, 2026 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?No | buy | 62.5 | $0.080 | $5 | Apr 1, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation?Yes | buy | 10.99 | $0.910 | $10 | Apr 1, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation?Yes | buy | 3.8 | $0.790 | $3 | Apr 1, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" during Address to the Nation?No | buy | 4.76 | $0.630 | $3 | Apr 1, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?Yes | buy | 3.9 | $0.770 | $3 | Apr 1, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "God" 3+ times during Address to the Nation?Yes | buy | 3.39 | $0.590 | $2 | Apr 1, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | sell | 9.91 | $0.677 | $6.71 | Apr 1, 2026 |
 GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 2.27 | $0.440 | $1 | Mar 31, 2026 |
 ChatGPT Full Outage by April 10?Yes | buy | 11.11 | $0.090 | $1 | Mar 31, 2026 |
 Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?No | buy | 16.67 | $0.300 | $5 | Mar 31, 2026 |
 Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31?Yes | buy | 2.74 | $0.730 | $2 | Mar 30, 2026 |
 LoL: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Group StageTeam Vitality | buy | 3.08 | $0.650 | $2 | Mar 30, 2026 |
 Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - DraculaN PlayoffsSashi Esport | sell | 3.82 | $0.999 | $3.82 | Mar 30, 2026 |
| Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - DraculaN PlayoffsSashi Esport | buy | 3.8 | $0.260 | $0.99 | Mar 30, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Ukraine" during Cabinet meeting on March 26?No | buy | 5.75 | $0.521 | $3 | Mar 26, 2026 |
 Will another country strike Iran by March 31?No | sell | 2.04 | $0.900 | $1.84 | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Will Perplexity’s market cap be less than $20B at market close on IPO day?Yes | sell | 33.33 | $0.031 | $1.03 | Mar 24, 2026 |
| Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?No | sell | 4.87 | $0.480 | $2.34 | Mar 24, 2026 |
 Will Melania say "Future" during Fostering the Future Together event on March 24?Yes | buy | 5.38 | $0.930 | $5 | Mar 24, 2026 |
| Will Melania say "Peace" during Fostering the Future Together event on March 24?Yes | buy | 6.06 | $0.330 | $2 | Mar 24, 2026 |
| Will Melania say "UN" or "United Nations" during Fostering the Future Together event on March 24?No | buy | 4.41 | $0.680 | $3 | Mar 24, 2026 |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026?No | buy | 4 | $0.500 | $2 | Mar 24, 2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?No | buy | 11.36 | $0.440 | $5 | Mar 24, 2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?No | buy | 33.33 | $0.300 | $10 | Mar 24, 2026 |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026?No | buy | 6 | $0.500 | $3 | Mar 24, 2026 |