Analytics
Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31? | No | 130.09 | $0.432 | $6.96 | -$49.26 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Yes | buy | 1.3K | $0.002 | $2.62 | 9d ago |
| No |
| 0.67 |
| $0.090 |
| $0.08 |
| +$0.02 |
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Yes| buy |
| 96.89 |
| $0.004 |
| $0.39 |
| 9d ago |
| Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Yes | buy | 1.17K | $0.002 | $2.35 | 9d ago |
 Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 300 | $0.080 | $24 | 9d ago |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?No | buy | 15 | $0.490 | $7.35 | 13d ago |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?No | buy | 115.09 | $0.425 | $48.87 | 13d ago |
 Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?No | buy | 697.5 | $0.068 | $47.41 | 13d ago |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?No | sell | 100 | $0.510 | $51 | 13d ago |
| Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Yes | buy | 115.74 | $0.062 | $7.18 | 13d ago |
| Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Yes | buy | 117.15 | $0.056 | $6.56 | 13d ago |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?No | buy | 100 | $0.520 | $52 | 13d ago |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 300 | $0.090 | $27 | 13d ago |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by October 31, 2026?No | buy | 582.96 | $0.053 | $30.67 | 13d ago |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 631.66 | $0.090 | $56.85 | 13d ago |
| Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.067 | $2.68 | 13d ago |
 Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | buy | 3K | $0.026 | $78 | Jul 3, 2026 |
 Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No | sell | 247.28 | $0.005 | $1.15 | Apr 29, 2026 |
 Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 500 | $0.003 | $1.7 | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes | sell | 29.16 | $0.941 | $27.43 | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 250 | $0.110 | $27.5 | Apr 29, 2026 |
 AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?Yes | sell | 200 | $0.137 | $27.4 | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?Yes | sell | 419.24 | $0.068 | $28.36 | Apr 29, 2026 |
 Will Karolína Muchová win the 2026 Women’s French Open?Yes | buy | 1.68K | $0.028 | $46.76 | Apr 18, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No | buy | 222.28 | $0.201 | $44.68 | Apr 11, 2026 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?Yes | buy | 419.24 | $0.140 | $58.69 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 250 | $0.255 | $63.82 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes | buy | 28.32 | $0.300 | $8.5 | Apr 9, 2026 |
 Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes | buy | 418.08 | $0.053 | $22.09 | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes | buy | 309.06 | $0.027 | $8.39 | Apr 9, 2026 |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30?Yes | sell | 320 | $0.840 | $268.8 | Apr 4, 2026 |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Yes | buy | 208.33 | $0.360 | $75 | Apr 1, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Yes | sell | 1.2K | $0.090 | $108 | Mar 26, 2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30?Yes | buy | 320 | $0.510 | $163.2 | Mar 25, 2026 |
 Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.125 | $125 | Mar 24, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Yes | buy | 1.2K | $0.220 | $264 | Mar 24, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Yes | sell | 1.5K | $0.140 | $210 | Mar 24, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Yes | sell | 1.5K | $0.180 | $270 | Mar 23, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.090 | $90 | Mar 22, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Yes | buy | 2K | $0.090 | $180 | Mar 22, 2026 |
 Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament?Yes | sell | 1K | $0.057 | $57.24 | Mar 21, 2026 |
 Netanyahu out by March 31?Yes | sell | 500 | $0.047 | $23.5 | Mar 15, 2026 |
| Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.054 | $54.18 | Mar 15, 2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31?Yes | buy | 500 | $0.055 | $27.5 | Mar 15, 2026 |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?No | buy | 1K | $0.005 | $5 | Mar 1, 2026 |
 Will Laura Nolte (GER) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Bobsled - 2 Woman (Driver) at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.881 | $44.05 | Feb 21, 2026 |
 Will the United States win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes | sell | 1.13 | $0.005 | $0.01 | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes | sell | 27.62 | $0.002 | $0.06 | Feb 20, 2026 |
 Will Ireland record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes | sell | 100 | $0.001 | $0.1 | Feb 20, 2026 |
 Will Canada win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes | sell | 100 | $0.002 | $0.2 | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Will the United States win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes | sell | 39.99 | $0.008 | $0.32 | Feb 20, 2026 |