Analytics
Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | No | 35.89 | $0.799 | $31.94 | +$3.26 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Yes | buy | 15.09 | $0.530 | $8 | 2d ago |
 |
| No |
| 13.72 |
| $0.510 |
| $11.59 |
| +$4.6 |
| Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | No | 10.81 | $0.740 | $9.84 | +$1.84 |
 US strike on Colombia by December 31? | No | 10.11 | $0.790 | $8.75 | +$0.76 |
 Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 13.21 | $0.620 | $8.65 | +$0.46 |
 Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | No | 14.77 | $0.530 | $8.05 | +$0.22 |
 Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | No | 8.86 | $0.220 | $7.62 | +$5.67 |
 Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? | No | 7.5 | $0.800 | $7.01 | +$1.01 |
 Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | No | 15.38 | $0.490 | $7 | -$0.54 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | Yes | 15.09 | $0.530 | $6.87 | -$1.13 |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 14.81 | $0.540 | $6.74 | -$1.26 |
 Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | No | 9.21 | $0.760 | $6.59 | -$0.41 |
 Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | No | 9.21 | $0.760 | $6.49 | -$0.51 |
 Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | Yes | 11.2 | $0.540 | $6.22 | +$0.17 |
 Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | No | 11.26 | $0.300 | $5.57 | +$2.2 |
 Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 8.13 | $0.600 | $5.25 | +$0.37 |
 Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | No | 8.13 | $0.620 | $4.02 | -$1.02 |
 Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? | No | 10.52 | $0.250 | $3.84 | +$1.21 |
 Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 10 | $0.410 | $3.45 | -$0.65 |
 Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027? | Yes | 13.1 | $0.400 | $2.82 | -$2.42 |
 Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | Yes | 36.36 | $0.220 | $2.36 | -$5.64 |
 Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | No | 6.25 | $0.280 | $1.78 | +$0.03 |
 Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? | Yes | 7 | $0.190 | $1.3 | -$0.03 |
 Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? | No | 10 | $0.230 | $1.05 | -$1.25 |
 Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 6 | $0.210 | $0.87 | -$0.39 |
| buy |
| 10.81 |
| $0.740 |
| $8 |
| 2d ago |
 Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of September 7 2026?No | buy | 16 | $0.500 | $8 | 2d ago |
 Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?Yes | buy | 17.78 | $0.450 | $8 | 5d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 14.81 | $0.540 | $8 | 6d ago |
| Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in August 2026?Yes | buy | 22.22 | $0.360 | $8 | 13d ago |
 Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in July?No | buy | 10.81 | $0.740 | $8 | 19d ago |
 US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No | buy | 10.53 | $0.760 | $8 | 27d ago |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?Yes | buy | 3 | $0.340 | $1.02 | 29d ago |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?No | buy | 4.7 | $0.740 | $3.48 | Aug 7, 2026 |
 Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?No | buy | 3.82 | $0.510 | $1.95 | Jul 31, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during cabinet meeting?Yes | buy | 12.7 | $0.630 | $8 | Jul 31, 2026 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Yes | buy | 3 | $0.470 | $1.41 | Jul 29, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Tough Cookie" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?No | buy | 3.56 | $0.590 | $2.1 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 10+ times during cabinet meeting?No | buy | 8.14 | $0.560 | $4.56 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Save America Act" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?No | buy | 3 | $0.390 | $1.17 | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Grocery" or "Dairy" during Michigan remarks?No | buy | 5.5 | $0.540 | $2.97 | Jul 27, 2026 |
 Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on July 31, 2026?No | buy | 3 | $0.370 | $1.11 | Jul 26, 2026 |
 Will CBRE Group (CBRE) beat quarterly earnings?Yes | buy | 9.18 | $0.500 | $4.59 | Jul 26, 2026 |
 Will Yum Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings?No | buy | 12.5 | $0.380 | $4.75 | Jul 25, 2026 |
| Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?No | buy | 9.14 | $0.502 | $4.59 | Jul 25, 2026 |
 Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?No | buy | 7.1 | $0.680 | $4.83 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in July?Yes | buy | 11.16 | $0.700 | $7.81 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.210 | $2.1 | Jul 23, 2026 |
 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?No | buy | 11.25 | $0.320 | $3.6 | Jul 22, 2026 |
 SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 22?Up | buy | 8.8 | $0.450 | $3.96 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?No | buy | 15.75 | $0.610 | $9.61 | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of July 20 2026?No | buy | 7.1 | $0.680 | $4.83 | Jul 21, 2026 |
 Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $155 Week of July 20 2026?No | buy | 9.16 | $0.550 | $5.04 | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?Yes | buy | 6 | $0.220 | $1.32 | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No | buy | 7.39 | $0.660 | $4.88 | Jul 19, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No | buy | 6 | $0.800 | $4.8 | Jul 19, 2026 |
| Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?No | buy | 6.61 | $0.280 | $1.85 | Jul 18, 2026 |
 Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?Yes | buy | 8 | $0.410 | $3.28 | Jul 18, 2026 |
 Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.5% and 3.9%?No | buy | 7.02 | $0.289 | $2.03 | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?No | buy | 9.17 | $0.530 | $4.86 | Jul 17, 2026 |
 Will Harley-Davidson (HOG) beat quarterly earnings?Yes | buy | 8.13 | $0.620 | $5.04 | Jul 16, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Communist" during Speech to the Nation?Yes | buy | 7.1 | $0.680 | $4.83 | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?Yes | buy | 6 | $0.210 | $1.26 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" during Speech to the Nation?Yes | buy | 8 | $0.410 | $3.28 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?Yes | buy | 7 | $0.300 | $2.1 | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?No | buy | 7.11 | $0.650 | $4.62 | Jul 14, 2026 |
 Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?Yes | buy | 9.18 | $0.500 | $4.59 | Jul 13, 2026 |
 Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 Week of July 13 2026?Yes | buy | 8 | $0.410 | $3.28 | Jul 13, 2026 |
 Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 6.61 | $0.280 | $1.85 | Jul 12, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?Yes | buy | 7.34 | $0.316 | $2.32 | Jul 12, 2026 |
 Israel closes its airspace by August 31?No | buy | 6.08 | $0.800 | $4.86 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?Yes | buy | 9.25 | $0.480 | $4.44 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?No | buy | 10.13 | $0.770 | $7.8 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 36.36 | $0.220 | $8 | Jul 10, 2026 |