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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 747.78 | $0.725 | $661.79 | +$119.69 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will LAPTOP flip TRUMP by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 93.6 | $0.940 | $87.98 | 24m ago |
 |
| No |
| 400.33 |
| $0.915 |
| $378.11 |
| +$11.68 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510? | No | 256.79 | $0.819 | $229.83 | +$19.56 |
 Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 552.5 | $0.302 | $194.2 | +$27.35 |
 LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 213.68 | $0.715 | $152.78 | +$0.08 |
 Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | Yes | 222.86 | $0.685 | $118.12 | -$34.54 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500? | No | 142.58 | $0.639 | $116.2 | +$25.07 |
| LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 134.58 | $0.755 | $115.74 | +$14.13 |
 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | Yes | 246.12 | $0.426 | $107.06 | +$2.07 |
| Will LAPTOP flip TRUMP by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 93.6 | $0.940 | $91.17 | +$3.18 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480? | No | 188 | $0.270 | $66.74 | +$15.93 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | No | 70.52 | $0.552 | $39.49 | +$0.59 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 286.2 | $0.326 | $24.33 | -$69 |
 Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 36.23 | $0.615 | $23.73 | +$1.45 |
 LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch? | No | 47.99 | $0.360 | $18.48 | +$1.2 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490? | No | 31.31 | $0.400 | $16.28 | +$3.75 |
 LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 60.4 | $0.205 | $8.76 | -$3.62 |
 Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 8 | $0.860 | $6.92 | +$0.04 |
 Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | No | 6.98 | $0.775 | $5.34 | -$0.07 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.99 | $0.634 | $0.76 | +$0.14 |
 US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 0.66 | $0.585 | $0.57 | +$0.18 |
 Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | No | 0.58 | $0.507 | $0.48 | +$0.19 |
 Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | No | 0.51 | $0.165 | $0.4 | +$0.32 |
 Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | Yes | 0.49 | $0.455 | $0.27 | +$0.04 |
| Will LAPTOP flip TRUMP by December 31, 2026? | No | 10 | $0.260 | $0.26 | -$2.34 |
| buy |
| 67.29 |
| $0.760 |
| $51.14 |
| 48m ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Yes | buy | 6 | $0.420 | $2.52 | 18h ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?No | buy | 6.7 | $0.580 | $3.89 | 19h ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?No | buy | 6.7 | $0.580 | $3.89 | 19h ago |
 Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Yes | sell | 87 | $0.950 | $82.65 | 1d ago |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Yes | buy | 48.7 | $0.610 | $29.71 | 1d ago |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Yes | buy | 38.51 | $0.590 | $22.72 | 1d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500?No | buy | 5.71 | $0.720 | $4.11 | 2d ago |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?No | sell | 5 | $0.740 | $3.7 | 3d ago |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Yes | sell | 362.37 | $0.005 | $1.81 | 3d ago |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 5 | $0.500 | $2.5 | 3d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 16.57 | $0.720 | $11.93 | 3d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 105.46 | $0.720 | $75.93 | 4d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 7.42 | $0.620 | $4.6 | 4d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 7.42 | $0.620 | $4.6 | 4d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 33.52 | $0.330 | $11.06 | 4d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 33.52 | $0.330 | $11.06 | 4d ago |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes | buy | 180 | $0.711 | $127.98 | 5d ago |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes | buy | 180 | $0.709 | $127.6 | 5d ago |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes | buy | 176.36 | $0.740 | $130.51 | 5d ago |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes | buy | 176.36 | $0.740 | $130.51 | 5d ago |
 Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?Yes | sell | 45.29 | $0.700 | $31.7 | 7d ago |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 2, 2026?Yes | buy | 18.35 | $0.430 | $7.89 | 7d ago |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 9, 2026?Yes | buy | 140.98 | $0.850 | $119.83 | 7d ago |
 Will "The Odyssey" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 14.5m and 16m?Yes | buy | 37.79 | $0.600 | $22.67 | 11d ago |
| Will "The Odyssey" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 14.5m and 16m?Yes | buy | 37.79 | $0.600 | $22.67 | 11d ago |
 Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 48 | $0.697 | $33.46 | 11d ago |
| Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 48 | $0.697 | $33.46 | 11d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 168.17 | $0.016 | $2.69 | 12d ago |
 Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Yes | sell | 203.76 | $0.080 | $16.3 | 12d ago |
 Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?No | buy | 32.51 | $0.840 | $27.31 | 12d ago |
| Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?No | buy | 52.66 | $0.780 | $41.07 | 12d ago |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 9, 2026?Yes | buy | 6.97 | $0.710 | $4.95 | 13d ago |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 9, 2026?Yes | buy | 6.97 | $0.710 | $4.95 | 13d ago |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | sell | 480 | $0.870 | $417.6 | 13d ago |
 Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31?Yes | buy | 19.76 | $0.890 | $17.59 | 14d ago |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31?Yes | buy | 19.76 | $0.900 | $17.78 | 14d ago |
 Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 50.23 | $0.958 | $48.12 | 15d ago |
 Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 364.4 | $0.050 | $18.22 | 15d ago |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.810 | $8.1 | 15d ago |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 960m by August 31?No | sell | 62 | $0.999 | $61.94 | 15d ago |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31?Yes | buy | 100.28 | $0.690 | $69.19 | 18d ago |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31?Yes | buy | 100.28 | $0.690 | $69.19 | 18d ago |
 Will Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09?No | buy | 13.18 | $0.160 | $2.11 | 21d ago |
 Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 66m?Yes | buy | 31.13 | $0.200 | $6.23 | 24d ago |
| Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 66m?Yes | buy | 31.13 | $0.200 | $6.23 | 24d ago |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 14.66 | $0.880 | $12.9 | 26d ago |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 59.83 | $0.880 | $52.65 | 26d ago |
 Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Yes | buy | 10.39 | $0.526 | $5.47 | 26d ago |