Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.440 | $2.2 | Apr 28, 2026 |
 |
| sell |
| 30 |
| $0.480 |
| $14.4 |
| Apr 8, 2026 |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?No | sell | 50 | $0.013 | $0.65 | Apr 7, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?No | sell | 100 | $0.011 | $1.1 | Apr 7, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Yes | buy | 18 | $0.989 | $17.8 | Apr 7, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?No | sell | 95 | $0.085 | $8.08 | Apr 7, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Yes | buy | 15 | $0.940 | $14.1 | Apr 7, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Third term" in March?Yes | buy | 1.35K | $0.001 | $1.35 | Apr 4, 2026 |
 US forces enter Iran by March 31?No | sell | 8 | $0.999 | $7.99 | Apr 4, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Toyota" during events with Japanese PM?No | buy | 9 | $0.850 | $7.65 | Mar 19, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Khamenei" this week? (March 22)No | sell | 14 | $0.580 | $8.12 | Mar 18, 2026 |
 Will "Mom" be said at the Oscars?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.940 | $4.7 | Mar 14, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Egg" during Miami address?No | buy | 6 | $0.840 | $5.04 | Mar 9, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Transgender" during Miami address?No | buy | 15 | $0.580 | $8.7 | Mar 9, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "IQ" this week? (March 8)No | buy | 0.44 | $0.890 | $0.39 | Mar 7, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" or "MAGA" this week? (March 8)No | buy | 5 | $0.660 | $3.3 | Mar 7, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 8)No | sell | 11.99 | $0.670 | $8.03 | Mar 7, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 8)No | sell | 3.01 | $0.830 | $2.5 | Mar 7, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? (March 8)No | buy | 5 | $0.850 | $4.25 | Mar 7, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" or "MAGA" this week? (March 8)Yes | sell | 35.69 | $0.500 | $17.85 | Mar 6, 2026 |
 Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.299 | $1.49 | Mar 6, 2026 |
 Will Hegseth or Cooper say "America" 15+ times during press conference?Yes | sell | 6 | $0.030 | $0.18 | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Will Hegseth or Cooper say "President" or "Trump" 20+ times during press conference?Yes | sell | 27 | $0.010 | $0.27 | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Will Hegseth or Cooper say "Israel" during press conference?Yes | sell | 15 | $0.032 | $0.48 | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Will Hegseth or Cooper say "America" 15+ times during press conference?Yes | buy | 6 | $0.560 | $3.36 | Mar 5, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Cookie" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?No | buy | 6 | $0.800 | $4.8 | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Oval Office" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?No | buy | 6 | $0.670 | $4.02 | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Pelé" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?No | buy | 15 | $0.730 | $10.95 | Mar 5, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Dell" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No | buy | 1.68 | $0.920 | $1.55 | Mar 4, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Dell" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No | buy | 4 | $0.880 | $3.52 | Mar 4, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Dell" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No | buy | 6 | $0.880 | $5.28 | Mar 4, 2026 |
 Will Leavitt say "China" during the next White House Press Briefing?No | buy | 5 | $0.880 | $4.4 | Mar 4, 2026 |
| Will Leavitt say "Baby" during the next White House Press Briefing?No | buy | 5 | $0.990 | $4.95 | Mar 4, 2026 |
| Will Leavitt say "Baby" during the next White House Press Briefing?No | buy | 12 | $0.990 | $11.88 | Mar 4, 2026 |
| Will Leavitt say "Baby" during the next White House Press Briefing?No | buy | 5.8 | $0.980 | $5.68 | Mar 4, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 8)Yes | sell | 5 | $0.700 | $3.5 | Mar 4, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?No | buy | 5 | $0.790 | $3.95 | Mar 3, 2026 |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No | buy | 605 | $0.002 | $1.21 | Mar 3, 2026 |
 Will Donald Trump say "Board of Peace" on Truth Social this week?No | buy | 15 | $0.880 | $13.2 | Mar 1, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump say "Board of Peace" on Truth Social this week?No | buy | 4.04 | $0.830 | $3.35 | Mar 1, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No | sell | 115 | $0.005 | $0.58 | Mar 1, 2026 |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?No | buy | 139.77 | $0.800 | $111.82 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?No | buy | 9.75 | $0.830 | $8.09 | Feb 27, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?No | buy | 5 | $0.790 | $3.95 | Feb 26, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?No | buy | 24 | $0.740 | $17.76 | Feb 25, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (March 1)No | buy | 24 | $0.640 | $15.36 | Feb 25, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?No | buy | 5.34 | $0.660 | $3.52 | Feb 25, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Machado" during the State of the Union address?No | buy | 13 | $0.790 | $10.27 | Feb 25, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Gulf of America" in February?No | sell | 14.95 | $0.367 | $5.48 | Feb 24, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Major Non-NATO Ally" in February?No | sell | 1.38 | $0.750 | $1.04 | Feb 24, 2026 |