Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Israel military response against Iran by Friday?Yes | buy | 0.78 | $0.640 | $0.5 | Oct 10, 2024 |
 |
| buy |
| 1.28 |
| $0.780 |
| $1 |
| Oct 1, 2024 |
 Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?No | sell | 1.11 | $0.979 | $1.09 | Oct 1, 2024 |
 TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?No | buy | 0.9 | $0.670 | $0.6 | Oct 1, 2024 |
 European Central Bank cuts rates in Oct meeting?Yes | buy | 0.65 | $0.930 | $0.6 | Oct 1, 2024 |
| European Central Bank cuts rates in Oct meeting?Yes | buy | 0.65 | $0.930 | $0.6 | Oct 1, 2024 |
 Maduro out in 2024?No | buy | 0.67 | $0.890 | $0.6 | Oct 1, 2024 |
 Bitcoin above $65,000 on October 4?No | buy | 0.72 | $0.830 | $0.6 | Oct 1, 2024 |
 Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?Yes | sell | 2.7 | $0.920 | $2.48 | Sep 30, 2024 |
 Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?No | buy | 0.98 | $0.820 | $0.8 | Sep 30, 2024 |
 Bitcoin new all time high in 2024?Yes | buy | 1.02 | $0.590 | $0.6 | Sep 30, 2024 |
 Will JD Vance say "Trump" 20 or more times during the debate?Yes | sell | 1.1 | $0.690 | $0.76 | Sep 30, 2024 |
 Israeli forces enter Lebanon before November?Yes | sell | 1.29 | $0.953 | $1.23 | Sep 30, 2024 |
 GPT-5 released in 2024?No | buy | 1.37 | $0.730 | $1 | Sep 29, 2024 |
| Israeli forces enter Lebanon before November?Yes | buy | 1.3 | $0.770 | $1 | Sep 29, 2024 |
 Will Kamala say "Israel" during her Nevada speech?Yes | sell | 1 | $0.160 | $0.16 | Sep 29, 2024 |
| Will JD Vance say "Trump" 20 or more times during the debate?Yes | sell | 1.27 | $0.680 | $0.86 | Sep 29, 2024 |
| Will Kamala say "inflation" 3+ times during her Nevada speech?Yes | sell | 1 | $0.150 | $0.15 | Sep 29, 2024 |
| Will JD Vance say "Trump" 20 or more times during the debate?Yes | sell | 1.27 | $0.680 | $0.86 | Sep 29, 2024 |
| Will JD Vance say "Trump" 20 or more times during the debate?Yes | buy | 2.37 | $0.710 | $1.68 | Sep 29, 2024 |
 Who will speak more at VP Debate?Vance | sell | 1.61 | $0.602 | $0.97 | Sep 29, 2024 |
 Will Trump say "million" 15+ times during his Wisconsin speech?Yes | sell | 1.21 | $0.560 | $0.68 | Sep 28, 2024 |
 Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?No | buy | 0.75 | $0.800 | $0.6 | Sep 27, 2024 |
 Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?No | buy | 0.86 | $0.700 | $0.6 | Sep 27, 2024 |
 OpenAI becomes a for-profit before April 2025?Yes | sell | 1.53 | $0.810 | $1.24 | Sep 27, 2024 |
| Will Trump say "million" 15+ times during his Wisconsin speech?Yes | buy | 1.22 | $0.690 | $0.84 | Sep 27, 2024 |
| Who will speak more at VP Debate?Vance | buy | 1.61 | $0.620 | $1 | Sep 27, 2024 |
| OpenAI becomes a for-profit before April 2025?Yes | buy | 1.54 | $0.650 | $1 | Sep 27, 2024 |
 Will Biden finish his term?Yes | buy | 1.15 | $0.870 | $1 | Sep 27, 2024 |
| Will Kamala say "inflation" 3+ times during her Nevada speech?Yes | buy | 1 | $0.130 | $0.13 | Sep 27, 2024 |
| Will Kamala say "Israel" during her Nevada speech?Yes | buy | 1 | $0.130 | $0.13 | Sep 27, 2024 |
 Will Donald Trump say "AI" during his Michigan town hall?Yes | buy | 2 | $0.500 | $1 | Sep 27, 2024 |
 Megaquake in September?No | sell | 2.06 | $0.981 | $2.02 | Sep 27, 2024 |
 Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30?Yes | sell | 1.13 | $0.980 | $1.11 | Sep 27, 2024 |
 Will MSFT be the largest company by mcap on September 30?Yes | buy | 1 | $0.010 | $0.01 | Sep 27, 2024 |
| Bitcoin above $63,000 on September 27?Yes | sell | 2.04 | $0.971 | $1.98 | Sep 27, 2024 |
| Will JD Vance say "Trump" 20 or more times during the debate?Yes | buy | 1.28 | $0.760 | $0.97 | Sep 25, 2024 |
| GPT-5 released in 2024?Yes | sell | 3.22 | $0.300 | $0.97 | Sep 25, 2024 |
 $BTC dips below $50k before October?Yes | buy | 0.67 | $0.030 | $0.02 | Sep 23, 2024 |
 U.S. Recession in 2024?Yes | buy | 1 | $0.070 | $0.07 | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?No | buy | 1.07 | $0.840 | $0.9 | Sep 22, 2024 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?No | buy | 2.47 | $0.810 | $2 | Sep 22, 2024 |
| Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?No | buy | 1.11 | $0.900 | $1 | Sep 22, 2024 |
| Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30?Yes | buy | 1.14 | $0.880 | $1 | Sep 22, 2024 |
| Bitcoin above $63,000 on September 27?Yes | buy | 2.04 | $0.490 | $1 | Sep 22, 2024 |
| Megaquake in September?No | buy | 2.07 | $0.968 | $2 | Sep 22, 2024 |
| GPT-5 released in 2024?Yes | buy | 3.23 | $0.310 | $1 | Sep 22, 2024 |
| Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?Yes | buy | 2.7 | $0.370 | $1 | Sep 22, 2024 |