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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | No | 15.51 | $0.580 | $8.76 | -$0.23 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.250 | $10 | Aug 8, 2026 |
 |
| Yes |
| 15.38 |
| $0.520 |
| $8.69 |
| +$0.69 |
 Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? | No | 10.12 | $0.850 | $8.25 | -$0.35 |
 Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? | No | 9.71 | $0.510 | $8.2 | +$3.25 |
 US strike on Colombia by December 31? | No | 8.97 | $0.780 | $7.71 | +$0.72 |
 Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 9.66 | $0.610 | $6.32 | +$0.43 |
 Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? | Yes | 6.08 | $0.800 | $5.44 | +$0.58 |
 Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | No | 11 | $0.470 | $4.95 | -$0.22 |
 Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | No | 6.57 | $0.760 | $4.66 | -$0.33 |
 Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? | No | 11 | $0.230 | $4.57 | +$2.04 |
 Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 7.2 | $0.440 | $3.64 | +$0.47 |
 Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | No | 7.04 | $0.300 | $3.48 | +$1.37 |
 Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | No | 11 | $0.230 | $3.03 | +$0.5 |
 Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | No | 3 | $0.470 | $1.7 | +$0.29 |
 Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 6 | $0.190 | $0.87 | -$0.27 |
 Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? | No | 8.86 | $0.220 | $0.8 | -$1.15 |
 Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | Yes | 8.5 | $0.220 | $0.55 | -$1.32 |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | Yes | 6 | $0.210 | $0.19 | -$1.07 |
| buy |
| 15.38 |
| $0.650 |
| $10 |
| Aug 5, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?Yes | buy | 37.04 | $0.270 | $10 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No | buy | 14.93 | $0.670 | $10 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?Yes | buy | 28.57 | $0.350 | $10 | Aug 2, 2026 |
 S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on July 31?No | buy | 3 | $0.470 | $1.41 | Jul 31, 2026 |
 Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?No | buy | 19.38 | $0.500 | $9.69 | Jul 30, 2026 |
 Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?No | buy | 3.06 | $0.500 | $1.53 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?Yes | buy | 3.82 | $0.510 | $1.95 | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?Yes | buy | 3.99 | $0.499 | $1.99 | Jul 29, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Security" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?No | buy | 3 | $0.350 | $1.05 | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Military" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?No | buy | 3.01 | $0.419 | $1.26 | Jul 27, 2026 |
 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.420 | $2.1 | Jul 26, 2026 |
 Microsoft (MSFT) Q4 Azure revenue growth (constant currency) 38%-40%?No | buy | 11.2 | $0.710 | $7.95 | Jul 23, 2026 |
 Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?Yes | buy | 12.97 | $0.236 | $3.06 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of July 20 2026?Yes | buy | 8.15 | $0.400 | $3.26 | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?No | buy | 7 | $0.310 | $2.17 | Jul 19, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?Yes | buy | 6 | $0.210 | $1.26 | Jul 19, 2026 |
 Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?No | buy | 6.75 | $0.280 | $1.89 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No | buy | 6.59 | $0.730 | $4.81 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?Yes | buy | 6 | $0.220 | $1.32 | Jul 17, 2026 |
 Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?No | buy | 8.25 | $0.480 | $3.96 | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?Yes | buy | 7.5 | $0.340 | $2.55 | Jul 16, 2026 |
 Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Yes | buy | 6.5 | $0.260 | $1.69 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?No | buy | 9.16 | $0.550 | $5.04 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?No | buy | 7.1 | $0.710 | $5.04 | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?No | buy | 7.44 | $0.312 | $2.32 | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Yes | buy | 6 | $0.210 | $1.26 | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 Week of July 13 2026?Yes | buy | 6 | $0.290 | $1.74 | Jul 13, 2026 |
 Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 6.75 | $0.280 | $1.89 | Jul 12, 2026 |
 Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in June?No | buy | 9 | $0.470 | $4.23 | Jul 12, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?No | buy | 6.38 | $0.790 | $5.04 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Yes | buy | 6.08 | $0.800 | $4.86 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?No | buy | 6.06 | $0.772 | $4.68 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 10?Down | buy | 9.16 | $0.580 | $5.31 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?No | buy | 8.65 | $0.570 | $4.93 | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12?No | buy | 14.48 | $0.630 | $9.12 | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?Yes | buy | 13.75 | $0.360 | $4.95 | Jul 8, 2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 8?Down | buy | 8.75 | $0.440 | $3.85 | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?No | buy | 9.17 | $0.520 | $4.77 | Jul 7, 2026 |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?Yes | buy | 6.59 | $0.750 | $4.94 | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?No | buy | 14.21 | $0.680 | $9.66 | Jul 6, 2026 |
 Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.25 Week of July 6 2026?Yes | buy | 8.14 | $0.560 | $4.56 | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes | buy | 6 | $0.190 | $1.14 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 8.5 | $0.220 | $1.87 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes | buy | 7.2 | $0.440 | $3.17 | Jun 17, 2026 |
 Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference?Yes | buy | 7 | $0.670 | $4.69 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?No | buy | 3 | $0.470 | $1.41 | Jun 14, 2026 |
 Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%?Yes | buy | 9 | $0.350 | $3.15 | Jun 13, 2026 |
 Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Yes | buy | 12 | $0.210 | $2.52 | Jun 12, 2026 |