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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 2?Down | buy | 687.86 | $0.671 | $461.57 | Mar 1, 2026 |
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| sell |
| 2.5K |
| $0.150 |
| $373.92 |
| Feb 28, 2026 |
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during the 2026 State of the Union address?Yes | buy | 128.41 | $0.864 | $111 | Feb 25, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?Yes | buy | 76.92 | $0.910 | $70 | Feb 25, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Black" or "Hispanic" during the 2026 State of the Union address?Yes | buy | 198.4 | $0.655 | $130 | Feb 25, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Olympic" or "Olympics" during the 2026 State of the Union address?No | buy | 187.5 | $0.080 | $15 | Feb 25, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Kamala" or "Harris" during the 2026 State of the Union address?Yes | buy | 50.8 | $0.394 | $20 | Feb 25, 2026 |
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 50+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?No | buy | 225.67 | $0.177 | $40 | Feb 25, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during the State of the Union address?Yes | buy | 112.16 | $0.312 | $35 | Feb 25, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" during the State of the Union address?Yes | buy | 97.22 | $0.360 | $35 | Feb 25, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Obama" during the State of the Union address?Yes | buy | 75 | $0.400 | $30 | Feb 25, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Charlie Kirk" during the State of the Union address?No | buy | 80.83 | $0.230 | $18.59 | Feb 25, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Western Hemisphere" during the State of the Union address?Yes | buy | 14.22 | $0.352 | $5 | Feb 25, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Western Hemisphere" during the State of the Union address?Yes | buy | 101.36 | $0.345 | $35 | Feb 25, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Somalia" during the State of the Union address?Yes | buy | 125 | $0.320 | $40 | Feb 25, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" this week? (March 1)Yes | buy | 140 | $0.480 | $67.16 | Feb 22, 2026 |
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February?Yes | buy | 303.74 | $0.049 | $15 | Feb 20, 2026 |
Will Trump say "America First" in Rome, GA on February 19?Yes | buy | 109.09 | $0.550 | $60 | Feb 19, 2026 |
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 30+ times in Rome, GA on February 19?No | buy | 102.2 | $0.587 | $60 | Feb 19, 2026 |
Somalians who defrauded government to fund terrorists deported?No | sell | 444.36 | $0.987 | $438.58 | Feb 18, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" this week? (February 22)Yes | buy | 91.29 | $0.657 | $60 | Feb 17, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Hottest Nation" this week? (February 22)Yes | buy | 133.69 | $0.524 | $70 | Feb 17, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Democracy" this week? (February 22)Yes | buy | 110.21 | $0.544 | $60 | Feb 17, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Guthrie" this week? (February 22)Yes | buy | 109.38 | $0.640 | $70 | Feb 17, 2026 |
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes | buy | 2.5K | $0.140 | $350 | Feb 15, 2026 |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 16?Yes | buy | 3.08K | $0.011 | $35 | Feb 14, 2026 |
Will Trump say "250" at Fort Bragg on Friday?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.580 | $58 | Feb 13, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Election" at Fort Bragg on Friday?Yes | buy | 140 | $0.632 | $88.48 | Feb 13, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Witkoff" or "Kushner" during meeting with Netanyahu?No | buy | 92 | $0.565 | $51.96 | Feb 10, 2026 |
Will Trump say "B2" or "F35" during meeting with Netanyahu?No | buy | 90.36 | $0.624 | $56.42 | Feb 10, 2026 |
Will Trump say "First Term" during meeting with Netanyahu?No | buy | 58.57 | $0.700 | $41 | Feb 10, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 3+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?No | buy | 98.48 | $0.666 | $65.6 | Feb 10, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Discombobulator" in February?Yes | sell | 71.64 | $0.511 | $36.59 | Feb 7, 2026 |
Will Bernie Sanders say "Affordability" during the Fighting Oligarchy rally?Yes | buy | 170 | $0.466 | $79.27 | Feb 7, 2026 |
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during the 2026 State of the Union address?Yes | buy | 87.01 | $0.762 | $66.33 | Feb 5, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Hottest" during the 2026 State of the Union address?Yes | buy | 84 | $0.856 | $71.9 | Feb 5, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?No | buy | 114.07 | $0.263 | $30 | Feb 5, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Panama" during the State of the Union address?No | buy | 62 | $0.626 | $38.83 | Feb 5, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Japan" during the State of the Union address?No | buy | 100 | $0.498 | $49.85 | Feb 5, 2026 |
Will Trump say “Barack Hussein Obama” by February 28?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.730 | $7.3 | Feb 4, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (February 8)No | buy | 65 | $0.345 | $22.45 | Feb 1, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Discombobulator" in February?Yes | buy | 71.64 | $0.312 | $22.38 | Feb 1, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during remarks on January 28?No | buy | 85 | $0.472 | $40.1 | Jan 27, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Davos" or "World Economic Forum" during Iowa speech?Yes | buy | 110 | $0.334 | $36.78 | Jan 25, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Biden" 15+ times during Iowa speech?No | buy | 146 | $0.545 | $79.59 | Jan 25, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during Iowa speech?No | buy | 87.69 | $0.254 | $22.23 | Jan 25, 2026 |
Will Trump say "China" or "Russia" 15+ times during Iowa speech?No | buy | 55 | $0.628 | $34.54 | Jan 25, 2026 |
Will Trump say "World Peace" this week? (February 1)Yes | buy | 57.32 | $0.390 | $22.35 | Jan 25, 2026 |
Will Trump say "Maduro" or "Dictator" during CNBC interview?Yes | buy | 145 | $0.670 | $97.15 | Jan 21, 2026 |
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.3% by March 31?Yes | sell | 158.85 | $0.970 | $154.08 | Jan 21, 2026 |