Analytics
Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kash Patel out by December 31? | Yes | 1.32 | $0.760 | $0.28 | -$0.72 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Yes | sell | 1.75 | $0.800 | $1.4 | Apr 8, 2026 |
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Reckless-Kneejerk is a public Polymarket wallet indexed by Vultax, ranked #1,451,637 in the Observed 80K cohort. As of the latest observation the record shows -$2.19 observed lifetime PnL, 26 distinct markets, 23 resolved positions, a 47.8% win rate on resolved positions.
Rank, total PnL and observed volume come from one accepted snapshot of Polymarket's public leaderboard, so they are consistent with each other and with every other profile in the cohort. Open positions, the chart and recent trades are separate live observations with their own timestamps. A figure Vultax could not observe is left out rather than shown as zero, and nothing on this page is investment advice or a return forecast.
Public profile: polymarket.com/profile/0x1dfeb7c8ef26949096b97df12f79becd24295071
Nine stops, one per figure. Each says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads for this wallet in the accepted snapshot.
Position in Vultax's Observed 80K cohort: 80,000 public Polymarket wallets ordered by observed lifetime profit in one accepted leaderboard snapshot. A rank is only comparable inside that snapshot.
Observed lifetime profit and loss for the wallet, realized and unrealized combined, as reported in the accepted snapshot. It is a record of what happened, not a forecast of what comes next.
| buy |
| 1.75 |
| $0.570 |
| $1 |
| Apr 5, 2026 |
| Kash Patel out by December 31?Yes | buy | 1.32 | $0.760 | $1 | Apr 3, 2026 |
 Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:45AM-2:50AM ETUp | buy | 1.05 | $0.950 | $0.99 | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ETUp | sell | 1.16 | $0.900 | $1.04 | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ETUp | buy | 1.15 | $0.850 | $0.98 | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:40PM-8:45PM ETDown | sell | 1.09 | $0.930 | $1.01 | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:40PM-8:45PM ETDown | buy | 1.09 | $0.910 | $0.99 | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ETUp | buy | 1.15 | $0.850 | $0.98 | Mar 30, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ETUp | sell | 1.36 | $0.740 | $1.01 | Mar 30, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ETUp | buy | 1.35 | $0.720 | $0.97 | Mar 30, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ETDown | buy | 6.3 | $0.310 | $1.95 | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ETDown | sell | 2.59 | $0.440 | $1.14 | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ETDown | buy | 2.56 | $0.380 | $0.97 | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ETUp | buy | 1.88 | $0.516 | $0.97 | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ETUp | sell | 1.69 | $0.660 | $1.12 | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ETUp | buy | 1.67 | $0.580 | $0.97 | Mar 27, 2026 |
 Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March?Yes | buy | 1.41 | $0.710 | $1 | Mar 27, 2026 |
 Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?Yes | buy | 71.44 | $0.014 | $1 | Mar 27, 2026 |
 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?Yes | buy | 1.09 | $0.920 | $1 | Mar 27, 2026 |
 Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31?Yes | buy | 3.23 | $0.310 | $1 | Mar 27, 2026 |
 Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?Yes | buy | 1.05 | $0.950 | $1 | Mar 27, 2026 |
 Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?Yes | buy | 1.35 | $0.740 | $1 | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Yes | buy | 1.01 | $0.988 | $1 | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ETUp | sell | 1.85 | $0.540 | $1 | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ETUp | buy | 1.83 | $0.530 | $0.97 | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ETUp | buy | 100 | $0.010 | $1 | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ETUp | buy | 3.29 | $0.590 | $1.94 | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ETUp | sell | 1.61 | $0.660 | $1.06 | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ETUp | buy | 1.59 | $0.610 | $0.97 | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ETUp | sell | 0.64 | $0.550 | $0.35 | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ETUp | sell | 1 | $0.520 | $0.52 | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ETUp | buy | 1.62 | $0.600 | $0.97 | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ETUp | sell | 2.74 | $0.610 | $1.67 | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ETUp | buy | 2.7 | $0.360 | $0.97 | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ETUp | buy | 1K | $0.001 | $1 | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ETUp | buy | 7.89 | $0.370 | $2.92 | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ETUp | sell | 3.18 | $0.340 | $1.08 | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ETUp | buy | 3.15 | $0.310 | $0.98 | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ETUp | buy | 166.99 | $0.010 | $1.67 | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ETUp | buy | 1.65 | $0.590 | $0.97 | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ETUp | sell | 2.23 | $0.510 | $1.14 | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ETUp | buy | 2.2 | $0.440 | $0.97 | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ETUp | buy | 100 | $0.010 | $1 | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ETUp | sell | 16.43 | $0.780 | $12.82 | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ETUp | buy | 13.92 | $0.350 | $4.87 | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ETUp | buy | 2.3 | $0.421 | $0.97 | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ETDown | sell | 1.1 | $0.940 | $1.03 | Mar 25, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ETDown | buy | 1.11 | $0.900 | $1 | Mar 25, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ETDown | sell | 1.37 | $0.770 | $1.05 | Mar 25, 2026 |
Lifetime dollar volume the wallet has traded in the same snapshot. Profit read next to volume shows how much return each traded dollar earned.
Value of the wallet's open positions at the profile observation, priced at current marks. Zero can mean the wallet holds nothing open, or that no open value was observed.
Share of resolved positions that closed in profit within the available sample. A high win rate with a small profit usually means many small wins and a few large losses.
Realized winning markets summed against realized losing markets. The split shows whether profit came from many small wins or from a few big calls.
Total losses as a share of total gains in the available sample. Lower means less of the profit was given back; a value above 100% means the wallet lost more than it won.
Distinct markets the wallet has traded, and how many of its positions have resolved. Breadth tells you whether a record is one lucky call or a habit.
How many provider fill rows this view loaded and when the snapshot was taken. Vultax stamps every figure with its observation time instead of presenting an old number as live.