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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Anthropic have the third-best AI model at the end of December 2025?No | buy | 1.54 | $0.998 | $1.54 | Dec 28, 2025 |
|
| buy |
| 1.64 |
| $0.998 |
| $1.64 |
| Dec 28, 2025 |
 Will Z.ai have the third-best AI model at the end of December 2025?No | buy | 1.39 | $0.987 | $1.37 | Dec 28, 2025 |
 Will xAI have the third-best AI model at the end of December 2025?No | buy | 1.69 | $0.978 | $1.65 | Dec 28, 2025 |
 Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of December 2025?Yes | buy | 1.78 | $0.956 | $1.7 | Dec 28, 2025 |
 Will DeepSeek have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?No | buy | 1.53 | $0.999 | $1.53 | Dec 28, 2025 |
| Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?No | buy | 1.35 | $0.998 | $1.35 | Dec 28, 2025 |
| Will Z.ai have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?No | buy | 1.44 | $0.996 | $1.43 | Dec 28, 2025 |
 Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?No | buy | 1.32 | $0.998 | $1.32 | Dec 28, 2025 |
| Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?Yes | buy | 5.43 | $0.230 | $1.25 | Dec 28, 2025 |
| Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?Yes | buy | 1.99 | $0.770 | $1.53 | Dec 28, 2025 |
 Ethereum Up or Down on December 23?Up | buy | 5 | $0.510 | $2.55 | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on October 31?No | buy | 2.5 | $0.959 | $2.4 | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Will Google have the top AI model on October 31?Yes | buy | 2.13 | $0.940 | $2 | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model on October 31?No | buy | 1.18 | $0.997 | $1.18 | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31?No | buy | 1.29 | $0.995 | $1.28 | Oct 23, 2025 |
 Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31?No | buy | 1.35 | $0.996 | $1.34 | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Will Google have the best AI model on October 31?Yes | buy | 1.29 | $0.977 | $1.26 | Oct 23, 2025 |
 Will Microsoft be the most valuable company on October 31?No | buy | 1.34 | $0.996 | $1.33 | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Will Apple be the most valuable company on October 31?No | buy | 1.44 | $0.997 | $1.44 | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31?Yes | buy | 2.05 | $0.974 | $2 | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Will Microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Yes | buy | 4.15 | $0.964 | $4 | Sep 21, 2025 |
| Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?No | buy | 1.21 | $0.997 | $1.21 | Sep 21, 2025 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Yes | buy | 3.65 | $0.986 | $3.6 | Sep 21, 2025 |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30?No | buy | 1.24 | $0.992 | $1.23 | Sep 21, 2025 |
| Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?Yes | buy | 4.38 | $0.982 | $4.3 | Sep 21, 2025 |
 Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?No | buy | 1 | $0.996 | $1 | Aug 15, 2025 |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on August 31?No | buy | 1.32 | $0.997 | $1.32 | Aug 15, 2025 |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on August 31?No | buy | 1.51 | $0.995 | $1.5 | Aug 15, 2025 |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31?No | buy | 4.12 | $0.970 | $4 | Aug 15, 2025 |
| Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?No | buy | 3.25 | $0.985 | $3.2 | Aug 15, 2025 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Yes | buy | 3.06 | $0.979 | $3 | Aug 15, 2025 |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?No | buy | 5.76 | $0.989 | $5.7 | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?Yes | buy | 5.69 | $0.989 | $5.63 | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Yes | buy | 4.24 | $0.971 | $4.12 | Jun 28, 2025 |
 Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?Yes | buy | 5.7 | $0.921 | $5.25 | May 27, 2025 |
 Fed rate hike in 2025?No | sell | 5 | $0.850 | $4.25 | May 27, 2025 |
 Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government?Yes | sell | 5.14 | $0.961 | $4.94 | Apr 16, 2025 |
 Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?Yes | sell | 5.43 | $0.981 | $5.33 | Apr 16, 2025 |
| Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?Yes | buy | 5.43 | $0.976 | $5.3 | Mar 19, 2025 |
| Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government?Yes | buy | 5.15 | $0.971 | $5 | Mar 19, 2025 |
 Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?Yes | buy | 13.75 | $0.949 | $13.05 | Nov 15, 2024 |
 Will a Democrat win New York Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 9.31 | $0.962 | $8.96 | Oct 31, 2024 |
 Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 3.22K | $0.376 | $1.21K | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Will a Democrat win New York Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 9.32 | $0.966 | $9 | Oct 31, 2024 |
 Will a Republican win Wyoming Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 20.43 | $0.976 | $19.94 | Oct 13, 2024 |
| Will a Republican win Wyoming Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 20.44 | $0.979 | $20.01 | Oct 13, 2024 |
 Will Biden finish his term?Yes | sell | 112.34 | $0.860 | $96.61 | Sep 10, 2024 |
| Will Biden finish his term?Yes | buy | 112.34 | $0.870 | $97.74 | Sep 9, 2024 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 212.94 | $0.459 | $97.74 | Sep 6, 2024 |