Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 161 | $0.120 | $19.32 | Jun 25, 2026 |
|
| buy |
| 161 |
| $0.110 |
| $17.71 |
| Jun 25, 2026 |
 Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?No | buy | 109 | $0.962 | $104.86 | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?No | buy | 148 | $0.959 | $141.93 | Jun 24, 2026 |
 Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?No | buy | 5 | $0.680 | $3.4 | Jun 24, 2026 |
 Cuban regime falls in 2026?Yes | sell | 368 | $0.190 | $69.92 | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026?Yes | buy | 368 | $0.190 | $69.92 | Jun 23, 2026 |
 China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?No | sell | 84 | $0.920 | $77.28 | Jun 23, 2026 |
 Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?No | buy | 43 | $0.930 | $39.99 | Jun 22, 2026 |
 Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 355 | $0.111 | $39.41 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 64 | $0.117 | $7.49 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 198 | $0.115 | $22.77 | Jun 20, 2026 |
 Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes | sell | 302 | $0.063 | $19.03 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes | buy | 302 | $0.063 | $19.03 | Jun 19, 2026 |
 Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes | buy | 128 | $0.043 | $5.5 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Yes | sell | 116 | $0.090 | $10.44 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Yes | buy | 316 | $0.090 | $28.44 | Jun 18, 2026 |
 Israel closes its airspace by June 30?No | buy | 221 | $0.944 | $208.62 | Jun 17, 2026 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes | buy | 235 | $0.890 | $209.15 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes | sell | 5 | $0.640 | $3.2 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes | buy | 237 | $0.640 | $151.68 | Jun 15, 2026 |
 Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?Yes | sell | 84.5 | $0.019 | $1.61 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?Yes | buy | 246 | $0.019 | $4.67 | Jun 15, 2026 |
 Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 277 | $0.680 | $188.36 | Jun 14, 2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 69 | $0.344 | $23.74 | Jun 14, 2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 210 | $0.150 | $31.5 | Jun 14, 2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No | sell | 67 | $0.853 | $57.15 | Jun 14, 2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 180 | $0.842 | $151.56 | Jun 14, 2026 |
 Netanyahu out by June 30?No | sell | 143 | $0.988 | $141.28 | Jun 13, 2026 |
 Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 86 | $0.954 | $82.04 | Jun 13, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?Yes | buy | 315 | $0.015 | $4.73 | Jun 12, 2026 |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 80 | $0.280 | $22.4 | Jun 8, 2026 |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes | sell | 364 | $0.160 | $58.24 | Jun 6, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes | buy | 364 | $0.160 | $58.24 | Jun 6, 2026 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 314 | $0.500 | $157 | Jun 6, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 314 | $0.500 | $157 | Jun 6, 2026 |
 Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Yes | sell | 191 | $0.220 | $42.02 | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Yes | buy | 191 | $0.220 | $42.02 | Jun 5, 2026 |
 Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No | sell | 137 | $0.989 | $135.49 | Jun 5, 2026 |
 Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?No | buy | 216 | $0.700 | $151.2 | Jun 4, 2026 |
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes | buy | 202 | $0.550 | $111.1 | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes | sell | 39 | $0.330 | $12.87 | May 30, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes | buy | 196 | $0.330 | $64.68 | May 30, 2026 |
 Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Yes | sell | 70 | $0.219 | $15.33 | May 30, 2026 |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Yes | buy | 196 | $0.219 | $42.92 | May 30, 2026 |
 Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?No | buy | 118 | $0.965 | $113.87 | May 29, 2026 |
 Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?No | buy | 20 | $0.930 | $18.6 | May 29, 2026 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No | sell | 155 | $0.972 | $150.66 | May 28, 2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No | buy | 155 | $0.969 | $150.2 | May 28, 2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 245 | $0.064 | $15.68 | May 28, 2026 |