Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes | buy | 60.38 | $0.037 | $2.22 | Jun 23, 2026 |
 |
| buy |
| 92.32 |
| $0.016 |
| $1.5 |
| Jun 23, 2026 |
 Starmer out by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 277.49 | $0.017 | $4.7 | Jun 21, 2026 |
 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes | sell | 7.22 | $0.690 | $4.98 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes | buy | 7.23 | $0.710 | $5.13 | Jun 20, 2026 |
 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Yes | sell | 35.71 | $0.007 | $0.25 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 24.63 | $0.069 | $1.7 | Jun 18, 2026 |
 Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes | sell | 37.72 | $0.086 | $3.25 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes | buy | 17.34 | $0.176 | $3.06 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes | buy | 10.1 | $0.198 | $2 | Jun 16, 2026 |
 Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?No | buy | 16.67 | $0.060 | $1 | Jun 16, 2026 |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No | buy | 27.12 | $0.059 | $1.6 | Jun 15, 2026 |
 US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?No | sell | 333.33 | $0.002 | $0.67 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?No | buy | 333.33 | $0.003 | $1 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 16.36 | $0.110 | $1.8 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No | buy | 38.46 | $0.052 | $2 | Jun 15, 2026 |
 Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?Yes | buy | 124.44 | $0.009 | $1.12 | Jun 13, 2026 |
 Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 14, 2026?No | buy | 20 | $0.050 | $1 | Jun 13, 2026 |
 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.050 | $1 | Jun 13, 2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Yes | buy | 35.71 | $0.028 | $1 | Jun 13, 2026 |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 8.26 | $0.121 | $1 | Jun 13, 2026 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes | buy | 10.28 | $0.107 | $1.1 | Jun 13, 2026 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Yes | buy | 250 | $0.004 | $1 | Jun 13, 2026 |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 59.91 | $0.121 | $7.23 | Jun 13, 2026 |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 59.92 | $0.120 | $7.19 | Jun 12, 2026 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes | sell | 70.14 | $0.102 | $7.19 | Jun 12, 2026 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes | buy | 70.14 | $0.140 | $9.82 | Jun 11, 2026 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Yes | sell | 64.12 | $0.153 | $9.81 | Jun 11, 2026 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Yes | buy | 64.13 | $0.189 | $12.12 | Jun 11, 2026 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No | sell | 16.13 | $0.750 | $12.1 | Jun 11, 2026 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No | buy | 16.13 | $0.930 | $15 | Jun 10, 2026 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No | sell | 21.26 | $0.910 | $19.35 | Jun 10, 2026 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No | buy | 21.26 | $0.920 | $19.56 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No | sell | 21.73 | $0.900 | $19.56 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No | buy | 21.73 | $0.830 | $18.04 | Jun 7, 2026 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No | sell | 22.01 | $0.820 | $18.05 | Jun 7, 2026 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No | buy | 22.01 | $0.890 | $19.59 | Jun 6, 2026 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?No | sell | 23.32 | $0.840 | $19.59 | Jun 6, 2026 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?No | buy | 23.32 | $0.870 | $20.29 | Jun 6, 2026 |
 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?No | sell | 20.68 | $0.981 | $20.29 | Jun 6, 2026 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?No | buy | 20.69 | $0.959 | $19.84 | Jun 6, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No | sell | 20.14 | $0.985 | $19.84 | Jun 6, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No | buy | 20.14 | $0.948 | $19.09 | Jun 3, 2026 |
 Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?Yes | sell | 40 | $0.470 | $18.8 | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.550 | $22 | Jun 3, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No | sell | 30.13 | $0.740 | $22.3 | Jun 3, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 30.13 | $0.750 | $22.6 | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?Yes | sell | 39.6 | $0.571 | $22.59 | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?Yes | buy | 39.61 | $0.610 | $24.16 | Jun 3, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No | sell | 26.71 | $0.991 | $26.47 | May 31, 2026 |