Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.310 | $31 | Mar 5, 2026 |
|
| buy |
| 300 |
| $0.120 |
| $36 |
| Mar 5, 2026 |
 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 500 | $0.100 | $50 | Feb 27, 2026 |
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Yes | buy | 1.62K | $0.339 | $550 | Feb 27, 2026 |
 US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?Yes | buy | 116.28 | $0.043 | $5 | Feb 9, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?Yes | buy | 3.57K | $0.028 | $100 | Feb 9, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 21.74 | $0.230 | $5 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 222.22 | $0.090 | $20 | Jan 5, 2026 |
 Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?Yes | buy | 1.67K | $0.420 | $700 | Jan 5, 2026 |
 Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 1.92K | $0.052 | $100 | Jan 5, 2026 |
 No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 625.61 | $0.160 | $100 | Dec 2, 2025 |
 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes | buy | 704.77 | $0.709 | $500 | Dec 2, 2025 |
 Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025?Yes | buy | 2K | $0.200 | $400 | Dec 2, 2025 |
 Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?Yes | sell | 1.56K | $0.715 | $1.12K | Dec 1, 2025 |
 Andrew Tate vs. Chase DemoorTate | buy | 25.97 | $0.770 | $20 | Nov 4, 2025 |
 Democratic sweep?No | buy | 222.22 | $0.090 | $20 | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?Yes | buy | 3.16K | $0.190 | $600 | Oct 30, 2025 |
 US government shutdown by October 1?No | buy | 507.38 | $0.340 | $172.51 | Sep 29, 2025 |
 Trump out as President in 2025?Yes | sell | 444.44 | $0.040 | $17.78 | Sep 29, 2025 |
 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?Yes | sell | 357.14 | $0.060 | $21.43 | Sep 29, 2025 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 588.23 | $0.220 | $129.41 | Sep 29, 2025 |
| Trump out as President in 2025?Yes | buy | 444.44 | $0.090 | $40 | Sep 2, 2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 588.24 | $0.340 | $200 | Aug 22, 2025 |
 Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy booster?No | sell | 100 | $0.988 | $98.81 | Aug 22, 2025 |
 Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?Yes | sell | 359.74 | $0.325 | $116.87 | Jul 10, 2025 |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?Yes | buy | 359.75 | $0.278 | $100 | Jun 27, 2025 |
 Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?No | sell | 188.77 | $0.650 | $122.7 | Jun 23, 2025 |
| Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?No | buy | 188.77 | $0.424 | $80 | Jun 18, 2025 |
 Will Trump remove majority of reciprocal tariffs before 90 day deadline?No | sell | 200 | $0.398 | $79.66 | Jun 18, 2025 |
| Will Trump remove majority of reciprocal tariffs before 90 day deadline?No | buy | 400 | $0.250 | $100 | Jun 9, 2025 |
 Will the US add between 100k and 149k jobs in May?Yes | sell | 251.07 | $0.414 | $103.93 | Jun 4, 2025 |
| Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy booster?No | buy | 100 | $0.610 | $61 | Jun 3, 2025 |
 Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea election?Yes | sell | 65.21 | $0.965 | $62.93 | Jun 3, 2025 |
 Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 Superheavy?Yes | buy | 155.42 | $0.026 | $4 | May 27, 2025 |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 Superheavy explode?No | buy | 15.79 | $0.240 | $3.79 | May 27, 2025 |
| Will the US add between 100k and 149k jobs in May?Yes | buy | 251.07 | $0.279 | $70 | May 22, 2025 |
 US recession in 2025?No | sell | 100 | $0.580 | $58 | May 22, 2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?Yes | buy | 400 | $0.100 | $40 | May 22, 2025 |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Yes | sell | 246.38 | $0.240 | $59.13 | May 22, 2025 |
 Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?Yes | buy | 206.35 | $0.630 | $130 | May 14, 2025 |
 Will George Simion win by 12–18%?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.110 | $22 | May 14, 2025 |
| US recession in 2025?No | buy | 100 | $0.500 | $50 | May 9, 2025 |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea election?Yes | buy | 65.22 | $0.460 | $30 | May 9, 2025 |
 Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 50% and 75% on May 31?Yes | buy | 59.92 | $0.334 | $20 | May 9, 2025 |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 50% on May 31?Yes | buy | 160.55 | $0.125 | $20 | May 9, 2025 |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Yes | buy | 246.38 | $0.203 | $50 | May 9, 2025 |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?Yes | buy | 357.14 | $0.140 | $50 | May 9, 2025 |
 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R HouseYes | buy | 204.99 | $0.488 | $100 | Nov 6, 2024 |
| 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, D HouseNo | sell | 588.23 | $0.996 | $585.76 | Nov 6, 2024 |
 Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 262.62 | $0.970 | $254.74 | Nov 6, 2024 |