Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bitcoin Up or Down on April 7?Up | buy | 6.14K | $0.076 | $467.55 | Apr 7, 2025 |
|
| sell |
| 37.53 |
| $0.456 |
| $17.13 |
| Apr 4, 2025 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on April 4?Down | buy | 37.53 | $0.533 | $20 | Apr 4, 2025 |
 US military action against Iran before April?No | buy | 470.42 | $0.997 | $469.01 | Mar 31, 2025 |
 U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15?No | sell | 121.95 | $0.540 | $65.85 | Mar 14, 2025 |
| U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15?No | buy | 121.95 | $0.820 | $100 | Mar 14, 2025 |
 BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election?No | buy | 439.41 | $0.999 | $438.97 | Mar 14, 2025 |
 Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday?No | sell | 445.65 | $0.985 | $438.97 | Mar 13, 2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday?No | buy | 445.65 | $0.990 | $441.34 | Mar 13, 2025 |
| BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election?No | buy | 63.75 | $0.979 | $62.41 | Mar 13, 2025 |
 Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?Yes | sell | 283.95 | $0.990 | $281.11 | Mar 7, 2025 |
 Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal by Friday?No | buy | 9.97 | $0.973 | $9.7 | Feb 28, 2025 |
| Will the AfD win more than 26% of the vote in the German election?No | sell | 216.21 | $0.999 | $215.99 | Feb 26, 2025 |
| Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?Yes | buy | 283.95 | $0.997 | $283.1 | Feb 24, 2025 |
 Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?Yes | buy | 283.1 | $0.968 | $274.04 | Feb 22, 2025 |
| Will the AfD win more than 26% of the vote in the German election?No | buy | 216.22 | $0.925 | $200 | Feb 20, 2025 |
 Will Biden and Trump shake hands at inauguration?Yes | buy | 474.04 | $0.971 | $460.18 | Jan 20, 2025 |
 Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29?No | buy | 460.18 | $0.995 | $457.88 | Nov 29, 2024 |
 Will Republicans control 222 seats in the House after the election?No | sell | 358.7 | $0.987 | $354.04 | Nov 26, 2024 |
 AK-1 election: Peltola (D) vs. Begich (R)Begich | buy | 460.83 | $0.981 | $452.3 | Nov 16, 2024 |
 Will Trump nominate Marco Rubio for Secretary of State?Yes | sell | 456.21 | $0.991 | $452.3 | Nov 13, 2024 |
| Will Trump nominate Marco Rubio for Secretary of State?Yes | buy | 456.21 | $0.995 | $453.93 | Nov 13, 2024 |
 Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 293.49 | $0.995 | $292.02 | Nov 6, 2024 |
| Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 386.12 | $0.994 | $383.8 | Nov 6, 2024 |
 Associated Press declares winner before 3am on Nov 6?Yes | sell | 64.51 | $0.300 | $19.35 | Nov 6, 2024 |
| Associated Press declares winner before 3am on Nov 6?Yes | buy | 64.52 | $0.310 | $20 | Nov 6, 2024 |
 Will the AP call the election on November 6?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.890 | $35.6 | Nov 6, 2024 |
| Will the AP call the election on November 6?Yes | buy | 12 | $0.900 | $10.8 | Nov 6, 2024 |
| Will the AP call the election on November 6?Yes | buy | 17.5 | $0.800 | $14 | Nov 6, 2024 |
 Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state?No | sell | 131.57 | $0.770 | $101.31 | Nov 5, 2024 |
| Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state?No | buy | 131.58 | $0.760 | $100 | Nov 4, 2024 |
 Will Max Verstappen win the Brazilian Grand Prix?Yes | buy | 444.43 | $0.990 | $439.99 | Nov 3, 2024 |
 Will ÖVP win the most seats in the 2024 Austrian legislative election?No | buy | 439.99 | $0.980 | $431.19 | Sep 29, 2024 |
 Will SPD win the most votes in the 2024 Brandenburg election?Yes | buy | 431.19 | $0.944 | $406.88 | Sep 22, 2024 |
 Will Oscar Piastri win the Singapore Grand Prix?No | sell | 407.29 | $0.999 | $406.88 | Sep 22, 2024 |
| Will Oscar Piastri win the Singapore Grand Prix?No | buy | 407.29 | $0.987 | $402 | Sep 22, 2024 |
 Will Trump say "Barron" during the X space?No | buy | 1.31 | $0.590 | $0.77 | Sep 16, 2024 |
 No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?No | buy | 402 | $0.983 | $395.17 | Sep 16, 2024 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?Yes | sell | 563 | $0.700 | $394.1 | Sep 13, 2024 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?Yes | buy | 3.18 | $0.740 | $2.35 | Sep 12, 2024 |