Analytics
Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | Yes | 57.49 | $0.253 | $12.36 | -$2.19 |
 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Yes | buy | 4.55 | $0.220 | $1 | 5m ago |
|
kilgoreTrout is a public Polymarket wallet indexed by Vultax, ranked #417,676 in the Observed 80K cohort. As of the latest observation the record shows +$21.14 observed lifetime PnL, 144 distinct markets, 50 resolved positions, a 38.0% win rate on resolved positions.
Rank, total PnL and observed volume come from one accepted snapshot of Polymarket's public leaderboard, so they are consistent with each other and with every other profile in the cohort. Open positions, the chart and recent trades are separate live observations with their own timestamps. A figure Vultax could not observe is left out rather than shown as zero, and nothing on this page is investment advice or a return forecast.
Public profile: polymarket.com/profile/0x19c616db60c3038ade668b67521d3bbb583b4490
Nine stops, one per figure. Each says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads for this wallet in the accepted snapshot.
Position in Vultax's Observed 80K cohort: 80,000 public Polymarket wallets ordered by observed lifetime profit in one accepted leaderboard snapshot. A rank is only comparable inside that snapshot.
Observed lifetime profit and loss for the wallet, realized and unrealized combined, as reported in the accepted snapshot. It is a record of what happened, not a forecast of what comes next.
| No |
| 14.12 |
| $0.386 |
| $11.65 |
| +$6.2 |
 Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | No | 12 | $0.404 | $11.22 | +$6.37 |
 Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 12.07 | $0.704 | $10.19 | +$1.69 |
 Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 10 | $0.665 | $9.55 | +$2.9 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 8.57 | $0.327 | $8.01 | +$5.21 |
 Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 21.11 | $0.148 | $1.7 | -$1.42 |
 Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 1.83 | $0.550 | $1.21 | +$0.21 |
 Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 3.23 | $0.310 | $0.78 | -$0.22 |
 Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 5 | $0.140 | $0.74 | +$0.04 |
| buy |
| 4.17 |
| $0.240 |
| $1 |
| 1d ago |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Yes | sell | 8.56 | $0.930 | $7.96 | 1d ago |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Yes | buy | 5.56 | $0.180 | $1 | Aug 13, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No | buy | 2.04 | $0.490 | $1 | Aug 9, 2026 |
 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?No | sell | 35.01 | $0.060 | $2.1 | Aug 9, 2026 |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?Yes | sell | 15 | $0.019 | $0.29 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?No | buy | 3.33 | $0.300 | $1 | Aug 2, 2026 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?No | buy | 5.56 | $0.360 | $2 | Jul 25, 2026 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Yes | buy | 3.23 | $0.310 | $1 | Jul 25, 2026 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?No | buy | 6.12 | $0.490 | $3 | Jul 25, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No | buy | 5 | $0.490 | $2.45 | Jul 25, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No | buy | 2.08 | $0.480 | $1 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | sell | 9.46 | $0.266 | $2.52 | Jul 19, 2026 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | sell | 4.63 | $0.399 | $1.85 | Jul 19, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No | buy | 5 | $0.200 | $1 | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No | buy | 5 | $0.620 | $3.1 | Jun 29, 2026 |
 Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | sell | 14.08 | $0.046 | $0.65 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?Yes | sell | 11.5 | $0.104 | $1.2 | Jun 26, 2026 |
 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No | buy | 2.5 | $0.400 | $1 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No | buy | 2.22 | $0.450 | $1 | Jun 18, 2026 |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 3.13 | $0.320 | $1 | Jun 6, 2026 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes | buy | 7.07 | $0.707 | $5 | Jun 4, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No | sell | 10 | $0.410 | $4.1 | May 26, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No | buy | 2.31 | $0.650 | $1.5 | May 24, 2026 |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 1.81 | $0.600 | $1.09 | May 24, 2026 |
| Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?Yes | sell | 20 | $0.030 | $0.6 | May 24, 2026 |
 U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?No | sell | 5 | $0.940 | $4.7 | May 23, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No | buy | 4.44 | $0.900 | $4 | May 20, 2026 |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.210 | $2.1 | Apr 6, 2026 |
| Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.230 | $2.3 | Apr 3, 2026 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Yes | buy | 5.13 | $0.390 | $2 | Mar 22, 2026 |
 Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on February 13, 2026?Yes | buy | 5.26 | $0.380 | $2 | Feb 10, 2026 |
 Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM?Yes | buy | 6 | $0.300 | $1.8 | Feb 8, 2026 |
 Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by December 31?No | buy | 6.82 | $0.293 | $2 | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by December 31?No | buy | 4.02 | $0.249 | $1 | Jan 21, 2026 |
 Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?No | sell | 12.72 | $0.120 | $1.53 | Jan 9, 2026 |
 Will Tim Walz drop out by January 6?No | buy | 20 | $0.100 | $2 | Jan 5, 2026 |
 Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes | buy | 7 | $0.150 | $1.05 | Jan 4, 2026 |
| Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?No | buy | 6.45 | $0.310 | $2 | Jan 1, 2026 |
 US forces in Venezuela by December 31?No | sell | 1.65 | $0.998 | $1.65 | Dec 31, 2025 |
| Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?No | buy | 6.67 | $0.150 | $1 | Dec 30, 2025 |
| Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31?No | buy | 2.5 | $0.400 | $1 | Dec 30, 2025 |
| Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?No | buy | 5.13 | $0.390 | $2 | Dec 29, 2025 |
 Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?No | sell | 24.61 | $0.983 | $24.19 | Dec 29, 2025 |
| Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31?No | buy | 5.66 | $0.530 | $3 | Dec 29, 2025 |
| Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?No | buy | 2.78 | $0.360 | $1 | Dec 29, 2025 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 3.23 | $0.310 | $1 | Dec 28, 2025 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 11.11 | $0.180 | $2 | Dec 28, 2025 |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | buy | 14.08 | $0.071 | $1 | Dec 28, 2025 |
Lifetime dollar volume the wallet has traded in the same snapshot. Profit read next to volume shows how much return each traded dollar earned.
Value of the wallet's open positions at the profile observation, priced at current marks. Zero can mean the wallet holds nothing open, or that no open value was observed.
Share of resolved positions that closed in profit within the available sample. A high win rate with a small profit usually means many small wins and a few large losses.
Realized winning markets summed against realized losing markets. The split shows whether profit came from many small wins or from a few big calls.
Total losses as a share of total gains in the available sample. Lower means less of the profit was given back; a value above 100% means the wallet lost more than it won.
Distinct markets the wallet has traded, and how many of its positions have resolved. Breadth tells you whether a record is one lucky call or a habit.
How many provider fill rows this view loaded and when the snapshot was taken. Vultax stamps every figure with its observation time instead of presenting an old number as live.