Analytics
Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 6.03 | $0.834 | $5.22 | +$0.19 |
 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?No | sell | 1.7 | $0.320 | $0.54 | 1h ago |
 |
| No |
| 5.24 |
| $0.808 |
| $4.68 |
| +$0.44 |
 Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 5.11 | $0.908 | $4.53 | -$0.11 |
 Will Sarah Pidgeon – “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie? | Yes | 11.43 | $0.091 | $4.13 | +$3.09 |
 Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,220,000 and $1,242,000 on September 30? | No | 3.35 | $0.896 | $3.33 | +$0.33 |
 Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 3.63 | $0.832 | $3.07 | +$0.05 |
 Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? | No | 4.44 | $0.320 | $2.91 | +$1.49 |
 Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 4.26 | $0.710 | $2.88 | -$0.15 |
 Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | No | 7.74 | $0.390 | $2.75 | -$0.27 |
 China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | No | 3.7 | $0.730 | $2.72 | +$0.02 |
 Will Antonio Zanardi Landi be the next High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2026? | No | 2.67 | $0.750 | $2.54 | +$0.54 |
 Will the Democratic Party win the AK-AL House seat? | No | 2.71 | $0.855 | $2.51 | +$0.19 |
 Will Ro Khanna be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? | No | 2.56 | $0.894 | $2.48 | +$0.19 |
 Will there be three UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? | No | 2.78 | $0.870 | $2.41 | -$0.01 |
 Will the National Action Party (PAN) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | Yes | 36.43 | $0.028 | $2.35 | +$1.33 |
 Will National Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 10% or more? | No | 2.24 | $0.893 | $2.23 | +$0.23 |
| Will "Widow's Bay" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys? | No | 5.34 | $0.578 | $2.19 | -$0.9 |
 Will Labour Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 10-15%? | No | 2.59 | $0.772 | $2.16 | +$0.16 |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 2.46 | $0.830 | $2.1 | +$0.06 |
 Will Strava’s market cap be between $7B and $10B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 10.2 | $0.098 | $2.05 | +$1.05 |
 Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.5 and 2.9% in 2026? | No | 2.04 | $0.690 | $2.03 | +$0.62 |
| Will the median home value in NYC be less than $555,000 on September 30? | No | 2.09 | $0.955 | $2.01 | +$0.01 |
 Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | Yes | 6.77 | $0.300 | $2 | -$0.03 |
 Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? | No | 1.98 | $0.955 | $1.97 | +$0.08 |
| Will National Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 0-5%? | No | 2.67 | $0.748 | $1.97 | -$0.03 |
| sell |
| 1.4 |
| $0.830 |
| $1.16 |
| 2h ago |
 Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.5% and 0.6% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?No | sell | 3.34 | $0.740 | $2.47 | 3d ago |
 Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?No | sell | 1.63 | $0.770 | $1.26 | 4d ago |
 Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $150B by December 31?No | sell | 2.41 | $0.780 | $1.88 | 4d ago |
 Amazon 2026 capex above $190B?No | sell | 20.33 | $0.060 | $1.22 | 4d ago |
| Amazon 2026 capex above $170B?Yes | sell | 1.89 | $0.945 | $1.79 | 4d ago |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?No | sell | 3.53 | $0.400 | $1.41 | 6d ago |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Yes | sell | 1.21 | $0.871 | $1.05 | 7d ago |
 Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?No | sell | 1.71 | $0.810 | $1.39 | 7d ago |
 Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?No | sell | 5.18 | $0.979 | $5.07 | 8d ago |
 Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by August 31?No | sell | 1.81 | $0.993 | $1.8 | 10d ago |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?No | sell | 2 | $0.998 | $2 | 11d ago |
 Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 1.9 | $0.955 | $1.81 | 11d ago |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 2.15 | $0.420 | $0.9 | 12d ago |
 Will Warsh say "CapEx" or "Capital Expenditure" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes | sell | 0.19 | $0.400 | $0.08 | 12d ago |
 Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $720 in August?No | sell | 1.86 | $0.993 | $1.85 | 12d ago |
 Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?Yes | sell | 4.81 | $0.770 | $3.7 | 12d ago |
 Will Bloomberg IPO by March 31, 2027?Yes | sell | 0.88 | $0.150 | $0.13 | 13d ago |
| Will Warsh say "Regime" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes | sell | 2.51 | $0.760 | $1.91 | 13d ago |
 Will Inde Navarrette win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?Yes | sell | 101.69 | $0.170 | $17.29 | 13d ago |
 Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?No | sell | 0.66 | $0.080 | $0.05 | 14d ago |
 Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?Yes | sell | 4.87 | $0.493 | $2.4 | 14d ago |
 Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?No | sell | 10.57 | $0.740 | $7.82 | 14d ago |
 Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes | sell | 3.58 | $0.857 | $3.07 | 15d ago |
 Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in August?No | buy | 1.6 | $0.987 | $1.58 | 15d ago |
| Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by December 31?No | buy | 1.4 | $0.750 | $1.05 | 15d ago |
| Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?Yes | sell | 3.54 | $0.450 | $1.59 | 15d ago |
 Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 in August?Yes | sell | 3.92 | $0.027 | $0.11 | 16d ago |
 Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?Yes | sell | 6.62 | $0.127 | $0.84 | 16d ago |
 Will a hurricane make landfall in Massachusetts by November 30, 2026?No | buy | 1.83 | $0.908 | $1.66 | 16d ago |
| Will a hurricane make landfall in New Jersey by November 30, 2026?No | buy | 1.76 | $0.901 | $1.59 | 16d ago |
| Will a hurricane make landfall in Rhode Island by November 30, 2026?No | buy | 1.79 | $0.913 | $1.63 | 16d ago |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?No | sell | 2.33 | $0.880 | $2.05 | 16d ago |
 Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026?No | sell | 12.73 | $0.160 | $2.04 | 16d ago |
 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No | sell | 13.27 | $0.793 | $10.52 | 16d ago |
 Iran full airspace closure by August 31?No | sell | 3.21 | $0.967 | $3.1 | 16d ago |
 Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in August?No | sell | 1.31 | $0.990 | $1.3 | 16d ago |
 Will Ulises Mejía Haro win the 2027 Zacatecas Governor Election?No | sell | 2.31 | $0.500 | $1.16 | 16d ago |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?No | sell | 3.56 | $0.900 | $3.2 | 16d ago |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?No | buy | 2.34 | $0.860 | $2.01 | 16d ago |
| Next OpenAI GPT Image Model (2.1+) released by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 1.38 | $0.740 | $1.02 | 17d ago |
 Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?No | sell | 1.08 | $0.827 | $0.89 | 17d ago |
| Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?No | sell | 12.1 | $0.340 | $4.11 | 17d ago |
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 1.55 | $0.840 | $1.3 | 17d ago |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?No | sell | 3.08 | $0.986 | $3.04 | 17d ago |
 Will YMTC be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Yes | sell | 6.4 | $0.170 | $1.09 | 17d ago |
| Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 3.32 | $0.830 | $2.76 | 18d ago |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?No | sell | 3.33 | $0.810 | $2.7 | 18d ago |
 Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes | buy | 2.16 | $0.510 | $1.1 | 18d ago |