Analytics
Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 215.78 | $0.509 | $115.44 | +$5.64 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes | buy | 31.75 | $0.630 | $20 | 9h ago |
 |
| No |
| 122.99 |
| $0.766 |
| $115 |
| +$20.73 |
 US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 106.52 | $0.522 | $92.14 | +$36.56 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | No | 94.01 | $0.672 | $82.26 | +$19.09 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 127.12 | $0.659 | $78.18 | -$5.63 |
 Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | No | 70 | $0.809 | $61.95 | +$5.3 |
 AI bubble burst in 2026? | No | 65 | $0.804 | $57.69 | +$5.43 |
 Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | 60 | $0.815 | $56.1 | +$7.2 |
 China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | No | 70 | $0.689 | $50.75 | +$2.55 |
 Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | No | 50 | $0.490 | $43 | +$18.5 |
 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes | 64.19 | $0.618 | $41.4 | +$1.7 |
 UK Recession in 2026? | No | 43.48 | $0.690 | $40.65 | +$10.65 |
 Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | No | 40 | $0.690 | $35.8 | +$8.2 |
 NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | No | 38.79 | $0.773 | $30.45 | +$0.45 |
 Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium? | No | 25 | $0.800 | $23.88 | +$3.88 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | No | 30.01 | $0.730 | $23.25 | +$1.35 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 30 | $0.700 | $22.65 | +$1.65 |
 Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | Yes | 35.63 | $0.657 | $18.35 | -$5.05 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 18.32 | $0.600 | $16.21 | +$5.22 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 20 | $0.490 | $13.3 | +$3.5 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30? | No | 10 | $0.870 | $9.81 | +$1.11 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | No | 16.13 | $0.620 | $6.37 | -$3.63 |
 Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 10 | $0.300 | $4.35 | +$1.35 |
 U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? | Yes | 31.25 | $0.200 | $2.34 | -$3.91 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 250 | $0.006 | $1.75 | +$0.25 |
| buy |
| 16.13 |
| $0.620 |
| $10 |
| 1d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 40 | $0.860 | $34.4 | 1d ago |
 Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?No | sell | 130 | $0.810 | $105.3 | 1d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 250 | $0.006 | $1.5 | 1d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.490 | $9.8 | 2d ago |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 12.82 | $0.780 | $10 | 4d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 30 | $0.730 | $21.9 | 4d ago |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes | buy | 16.37 | $0.611 | $10 | 5d ago |
 Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 40 | $0.267 | $10.67 | 5d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 99.96 | $0.780 | $77.97 | 5d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 23.81 | $0.420 | $10 | 6d ago |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 25.97 | $0.770 | $20 | 6d ago |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 30 | $0.230 | $6.9 | 6d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 51.28 | $0.390 | $20 | 6d ago |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes | buy | 24.19 | $0.620 | $15 | 7d ago |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.610 | $6.1 | 7d ago |
 Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?No | sell | 64 | $0.330 | $21.12 | 8d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 34.48 | $0.580 | $20 | 8d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 104 | $0.400 | $41.6 | 8d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 86.21 | $0.580 | $50 | 8d ago |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes | buy | 15 | $0.620 | $9.3 | 10d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 9 | $0.680 | $6.12 | 14d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 15 | $0.660 | $9.9 | 15d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 15 | $0.660 | $9.9 | 15d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 15 | $0.660 | $9.9 | 15d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 20 | $0.590 | $11.8 | 15d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 10 | $0.600 | $6 | 15d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 10 | $0.600 | $6 | 15d ago |
| Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No | buy | 20 | $0.870 | $17.4 | 15d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No | buy | 20 | $0.490 | $9.8 | 16d ago |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 10 | $0.480 | $4.8 | 16d ago |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No | buy | 20 | $0.680 | $13.6 | 16d ago |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No | buy | 10 | $0.680 | $6.8 | 16d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 30 | $0.690 | $20.7 | 17d ago |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Yes | buy | 15.63 | $0.640 | $10 | 19d ago |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 20 | $0.630 | $12.6 | 19d ago |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.670 | $13.4 | 19d ago |
| Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No | buy | 15 | $0.830 | $12.45 | 19d ago |
| Will Moonshot be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes | sell | 45 | $0.005 | $0.23 | 20d ago |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No | buy | 20 | $0.700 | $14 | 20d ago |
| Will Moonshot be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes | buy | 45 | $0.010 | $0.45 | 21d ago |
 Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?Yes | sell | 29 | $0.160 | $4.64 | 21d ago |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes | buy | 15 | $0.670 | $10.05 | 21d ago |
 UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?Yes | sell | 133.27 | $0.130 | $17.33 | 21d ago |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?Yes | buy | 18.32 | $0.600 | $10.99 | 21d ago |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?No | buy | 20 | $0.620 | $12.4 | 21d ago |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No | buy | 20 | $0.690 | $13.8 | 21d ago |
| Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?Yes | buy | 9 | $0.400 | $3.6 | 21d ago |
 Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 19?Yes | sell | 6 | $0.033 | $0.2 | 21d ago |