Analytics
Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 300 | $0.870 | $265.5 | +$4.5 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?No | buy | 30 | $0.690 | $20.7 | 4d ago |
 |
| No |
| 200 |
| $0.850 |
| $192.6 |
| +$22.6 |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 225 | $0.810 | $190.13 | +$7.88 |
 Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | No | 150 | $0.982 | $148.88 | +$1.58 |
 Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | 150 | $0.946 | $142.8 | +$0.9 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15? | No | 100 | $0.965 | $99.75 | +$3.25 |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? | No | 103.49 | $0.602 | $87.45 | +$25.14 |
 Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? | No | 50 | $0.971 | $49.63 | +$1.08 |
 Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? | No | 50 | $0.971 | $49.15 | +$0.6 |
 US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 1K | $0.050 | $45 | -$5 |
 Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Yes | 214.29 | $0.140 | $41.79 | +$11.79 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 40 | $0.963 | $38.46 | -$0.06 |
 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 40 | $0.860 | $37.38 | +$2.98 |
 Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | No | 40 | $0.870 | $23.8 | -$11 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | Yes | 200 | $0.120 | $18 | -$6 |
 Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | No | 20 | $0.630 | $16.5 | +$3.9 |
 Will Phoebe Gates be arrested by September 30? | No | 5 | $0.990 | $4.97 | +$0.02 |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | No | 20 | $0.710 | $4.3 | -$9.9 |
 Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | No | 0.99 | $0.828 | $0.87 | +$0.05 |
| buy |
| 40 |
| $0.963 |
| $38.52 |
| 5d ago |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 200 | $0.850 | $170 | 7d ago |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?No | buy | 60.54 | $0.520 | $31.48 | 7d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No | buy | 20 | $0.710 | $14.2 | 14d ago |
 Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get less than 10 million views on day 1?No | buy | 20 | $0.780 | $15.6 | 15d ago |
 Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 33.65 | $0.891 | $30 | 16d ago |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes | buy | 214.29 | $0.140 | $30 | 19d ago |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?No | sell | 49 | $0.841 | $41.21 | 22d ago |
 Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Yes | sell | 40 | $0.270 | $10.8 | 22d ago |
| Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026?No | buy | 50 | $0.971 | $48.55 | 23d ago |
| Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.810 | $40.5 | 23d ago |
| Will Phoebe Gates be arrested by September 30?No | buy | 5 | $0.990 | $4.95 | 23d ago |
| Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.410 | $16.4 | 23d ago |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | buy | 75 | $0.830 | $62.25 | 24d ago |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?No | buy | 150 | $0.982 | $147.3 | 24d ago |
| Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?No | buy | 35 | $0.870 | $30.45 | 25d ago |
 US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?No | buy | 60 | $0.930 | $55.8 | 25d ago |
 US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No | buy | 30 | $0.967 | $29.01 | 25d ago |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | buy | 100 | $0.830 | $83 | 25d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?No | buy | 100 | $0.965 | $96.5 | 25d ago |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.860 | $34.4 | Aug 12, 2026 |
 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 15 | $0.820 | $12.3 | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?No | buy | 300 | $0.870 | $261 | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?No | buy | 50 | $0.840 | $42 | Aug 5, 2026 |
 U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Yes | buy | 99.99 | $0.680 | $67.99 | Jul 31, 2026 |
| U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Yes | buy | 10.62 | $0.679 | $7.21 | Jul 31, 2026 |
 Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 10 | $0.950 | $9.5 | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | buy | 100 | $0.740 | $74 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?No | buy | 100 | $0.910 | $91 | Jul 29, 2026 |
 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Yes | buy | 30 | $0.545 | $16.35 | Jul 28, 2026 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?No | buy | 50 | $0.890 | $44.5 | Jul 27, 2026 |
 Israel closes its airspace by August 31?No | buy | 50 | $0.750 | $37.5 | Jul 26, 2026 |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?No | buy | 40 | $0.630 | $25.2 | Jul 26, 2026 |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?No | buy | 20 | $0.798 | $15.96 | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Iran Nuke before 2027?No | buy | 150 | $0.946 | $141.9 | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.925 | $92.5 | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No | buy | 33.53 | $0.964 | $32.32 | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No | buy | 300 | $0.960 | $288 | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?No | buy | 61.18 | $0.848 | $51.88 | Jul 6, 2026 |
 Will United States win on 2026-07-06?No | buy | 60 | $0.610 | $36.6 | Jul 6, 2026 |
 President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?Yes | buy | 134.25 | $0.920 | $123.51 | Jul 4, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No | buy | 200 | $0.940 | $188 | Jul 3, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?No | buy | 300 | $0.950 | $285 | Jun 30, 2026 |
| France vs. Sweden: Team to AdvanceFrance | buy | 100 | $0.950 | $95 | Jun 30, 2026 |
 Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Yes | buy | 36.53 | $0.974 | $35.58 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.820 | $164 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?No | buy | 450 | $0.987 | $444.15 | Jun 26, 2026 |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No | buy | 250 | $0.885 | $221.25 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?No | buy | 380 | $0.966 | $367.08 | Jun 4, 2026 |