Analytics
The cohort performance summary keeps its original period. These positions are a separate Polymarket observation and do not establish complete position history.
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kash Patel out by December 31?Yes | sell | 105.76 | $0.616 | $65.1 | May 21, 2026 |
 |
| sell |
| 109.89 |
| $0.472 |
| $51.91 |
| May 21, 2026 |
| Kash Patel out by June 30?Yes | sell | 117.23 | $0.270 | $31.65 | May 21, 2026 |
 Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?Yes | sell | 153.84 | $0.050 | $7.69 | May 21, 2026 |
 Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?Yes | sell | 241.27 | $0.943 | $227.61 | May 11, 2026 |
 Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No | sell | 90.62 | $0.990 | $89.72 | May 11, 2026 |
 Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%?No | sell | 101.01 | $0.990 | $100 | May 11, 2026 |
| Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?No | sell | 107.18 | $0.970 | $104.01 | May 11, 2026 |
| Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No | sell | 102.14 | $0.985 | $100.61 | May 11, 2026 |
| Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Yes | sell | 105.62 | $0.964 | $101.84 | May 11, 2026 |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Yes | sell | 116.31 | $0.978 | $113.75 | May 11, 2026 |
 Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 341.11 | $0.930 | $317.23 | May 11, 2026 |
 Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?No | sell | 1.12K | $0.948 | $1.06K | May 11, 2026 |
| Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?No | sell | 2.89 | $0.028 | $0.08 | May 9, 2026 |
| Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?No | sell | 140.38 | $0.028 | $3.93 | May 9, 2026 |
| Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?No | sell | 6.71 | $0.033 | $0.22 | May 9, 2026 |
| Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Yes | sell | 0.3 | $0.019 | $0.01 | May 9, 2026 |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No | sell | 0.6 | $0.014 | $0.01 | May 9, 2026 |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No | sell | 0.09 | $0.014 | $0 | May 9, 2026 |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No | sell | 0.45 | $0.014 | $0.01 | May 9, 2026 |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No | sell | 2.28 | $0.014 | $0.03 | May 9, 2026 |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No | sell | 2.57 | $0.014 | $0.04 | May 9, 2026 |
 Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in April?No | buy | 100.61 | $0.994 | $99.99 | May 8, 2026 |
 Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?Yes | buy | 25 | $0.950 | $23.75 | May 8, 2026 |
 Will Consolidated Edison (ED) beat quarterly earnings?No | buy | 100.09 | $0.999 | $99.99 | May 7, 2026 |
 Will Monster Beverage (MNST) beat quarterly earnings?Yes | buy | 69.95 | $0.990 | $69.25 | May 7, 2026 |
 Will Toast (TOST) beat quarterly earnings?Yes | buy | 69.95 | $0.990 | $69.25 | May 7, 2026 |
 Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting?Yes | buy | 100.69 | $0.993 | $99.99 | May 7, 2026 |
 Will BGC Group (BGC) beat quarterly earnings?No | buy | 20.38 | $0.999 | $20.36 | May 7, 2026 |
 Will Papa John's (PZZA) beat quarterly earnings?No | buy | 100.39 | $0.996 | $99.99 | May 7, 2026 |
 Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No | sell | 162.07 | $0.611 | $99.02 | May 7, 2026 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No | buy | 162.08 | $0.612 | $99.19 | May 7, 2026 |
| Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No | sell | 11.1 | $0.953 | $10.58 | May 6, 2026 |
 Will StoneX (SNEX) beat quarterly earnings?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.990 | $4.95 | May 6, 2026 |
 Will MetLife (MET) beat quarterly earnings?Yes | buy | 0.99 | $0.990 | $0.98 | May 6, 2026 |
 Will Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) beat quarterly earnings?Yes | buy | 82.54 | $0.990 | $81.71 | May 6, 2026 |
 Will Disney (DIS) beat quarterly earnings?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.999 | $99.9 | May 6, 2026 |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No | sell | 17.17 | $0.140 | $2.4 | May 5, 2026 |
| Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Yes | sell | 8.17 | $0.061 | $0.5 | May 5, 2026 |
| Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Yes | sell | 16.34 | $0.057 | $0.93 | May 5, 2026 |
| Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Yes | sell | 14.6 | $0.053 | $0.77 | May 5, 2026 |
| Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Yes | sell | 1.74 | $0.044 | $0.08 | May 5, 2026 |
| Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Yes | sell | 9.8 | $0.047 | $0.46 | May 5, 2026 |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No | sell | 0.08 | $0.045 | $0 | May 5, 2026 |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No | sell | 2.66 | $0.043 | $0.11 | May 5, 2026 |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No | sell | 1.73 | $0.042 | $0.07 | May 5, 2026 |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No | sell | 0.49 | $0.043 | $0.02 | May 5, 2026 |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No | sell | 0.51 | $0.045 | $0.02 | May 5, 2026 |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No | sell | 0.59 | $0.045 | $0.03 | May 5, 2026 |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No | sell | 0.51 | $0.046 | $0.02 | May 5, 2026 |