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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 104.71 | $0.288 | $84.82 | +$54.62 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.972 | $9.72 | 13d ago |
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| No |
| 73.34 |
| $0.389 |
| $63.81 |
| +$35.25 |
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | Yes | 100 | $0.604 | $51 | -$9.45 |
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | Yes | 31.47 | $0.311 | $23.13 | +$13.33 |
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 45 | $0.588 | $19.58 | -$6.87 |
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | 16.96 | $0.475 | $8.4 | +$0.35 |
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%? | Yes | 15 | $0.379 | $6.98 | +$1.29 |
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 88.06 | $0.092 | $3.43 | -$4.72 |
Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes | 57.65 | $0.162 | $3.17 | -$6.19 |
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 3.17 | $0.630 | $2.97 | +$0.97 |
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting? | Yes | 5 | $0.420 | $2.85 | +$0.75 |
Will Palmeiras win Brazil Série A? | Yes | 5 | $0.550 | $1.45 | -$1.3 |
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1.59 | $0.630 | $1.42 | +$0.42 |
WHOOP IPO before 2027? | Yes | 20 | $0.200 | $1.3 | -$2.7 |
Revolut IPO before 2027? | Yes | 29.99 | $0.060 | $1.02 | -$0.78 |
OpenAI IPO before 2027? | Yes | 10 | $0.535 | $0.85 | -$4.5 |
Waymo IPO before 2027? | Yes | 20 | $0.053 | $0.61 | -$0.45 |
Databricks IPO before 2027? | Yes | 10 | $0.200 | $0.55 | -$1.45 |
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 5 | $0.270 | $0.32 | -$1.03 |
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting? | Yes | 10 | $0.300 | $0.27 | -$2.73 |
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? | Yes | 71.43 | $0.014 | $0.11 | -$0.89 |
| sell |
| 5 |
| $0.930 |
| $4.65 |
| 13d ago |
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No | sell | 75 | $0.150 | $11.25 | 13d ago |
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.580 | $2.9 | 13d ago |
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 18.77 | $0.890 | $16.71 | 13d ago |
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31?Yes | sell | 5 | $0.220 | $1.1 | Jul 19, 2026 |
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.031 | $1.24 | Jul 19, 2026 |
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.387 | $3.87 | Jul 16, 2026 |
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $40B by December 31?Yes | sell | 5 | $0.140 | $0.7 | Jul 16, 2026 |
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.643 | $3.22 | Jul 15, 2026 |
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | buy | 4.76 | $0.420 | $2 | Jul 15, 2026 |
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | buy | 3.47 | $0.576 | $2 | Jul 15, 2026 |
Will Pedri be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.001 | $1 | Jul 15, 2026 |
Will Pedri be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.001 | $1 | Jul 15, 2026 |
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | buy | 1.74 | $0.576 | $1 | Jul 15, 2026 |
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No | buy | 1.45 | $0.690 | $1 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target AND Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target AND Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | buy | 14.05 | $0.068 | $0.95 | Jul 15, 2026 |
England vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceArgentina | buy | 4.3 | $0.465 | $2 | Jul 15, 2026 |
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes | buy | 5 | $0.450 | $2.25 | Jul 15, 2026 |
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 1.59 | $0.630 | $1 | Jul 11, 2026 |
Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Zverev (+1.5)Sinner | buy | 1.49 | $0.670 | $1 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev AND Sinner vs. Zverev: Match O/U 40.5 AND Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5 | buy | 3.11 | $0.630 | $1.96 | Jul 11, 2026 |
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $30B by December 31?Yes | sell | 20 | $0.130 | $2.6 | Jul 11, 2026 |
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.870 | $8.7 | Jul 11, 2026 |
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Yes | sell | 2.59 | $0.950 | $2.46 | Jul 9, 2026 |
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?Yes | sell | 5 | $0.959 | $4.8 | Jul 9, 2026 |
Will France win on 2026-07-09?No | buy | 5.26 | $0.380 | $2 | Jul 9, 2026 |
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to AdvanceNorway | buy | 10 | $0.360 | $3.6 | Jul 1, 2026 |
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.540 | $5.4 | Jul 1, 2026 |
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to AdvancePortugal | buy | 5 | $0.700 | $3.5 | Jul 1, 2026 |
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.580 | $2.9 | Jul 1, 2026 |
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?Yes | buy | 90 | $0.600 | $54 | Jul 1, 2026 |
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.346 | $3.46 | Jun 29, 2026 |
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?No | buy | 10 | $0.755 | $7.55 | Jun 29, 2026 |
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to AdvanceMorocco | buy | 5 | $0.400 | $2 | Jun 29, 2026 |
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.560 | $2.8 | Jun 29, 2026 |
GTA 6 launch postponed again?Yes | sell | 5 | $0.080 | $0.4 | Jun 29, 2026 |
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.749 | $7.49 | Jun 20, 2026 |
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | sell | 25 | $0.945 | $23.63 | Jun 20, 2026 |
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 3.7 | $0.270 | $1 | Jun 19, 2026 |
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 10.88 | $0.092 | $1 | Jun 19, 2026 |
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 3.7 | $0.270 | $1 | Jun 19, 2026 |
Spread: Brazil (-3.5)Haiti | buy | 1.45 | $0.690 | $1 | Jun 19, 2026 |
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?No | buy | 16.67 | $0.120 | $2 | Jun 19, 2026 |
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?Yes | buy | 1.41 | $0.710 | $1 | Jun 17, 2026 |
Will England win on 2026-06-17?No | buy | 4.65 | $0.430 | $2 | Jun 17, 2026 |
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No | sell | 3.7 | $0.610 | $2.26 | Jun 17, 2026 |
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No | sell | 4.44 | $0.710 | $3.15 | Jun 16, 2026 |
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No | sell | 4.04 | $0.630 | $2.55 | Jun 16, 2026 |
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?No | sell | 1.66 | $0.973 | $1.62 | Jun 15, 2026 |