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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will South Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | No | 550 | $0.410 | $549.18 | +$323.38 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?Grüne | sell | 141.54 | $0.300 | $42.46 | 2d ago |
|
| Yes |
| 578.71 |
| $0.676 |
| $528.94 |
| +$137.75 |
 Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 920 | $0.466 | $526.24 | +$97.16 |
 Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 570 | $0.437 | $413.25 | +$164.12 |
 Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31? | Yes | 815 | $0.497 | $358.6 | -$46.59 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31? | Yes | 2.17K | $0.276 | $206.44 | -$393.41 |
 Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | No | 333.6 | $0.669 | $188.48 | -$34.57 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31? | Yes | 174.9 | $0.649 | $165.11 | +$51.65 |
 Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 500 | $0.160 | $152.5 | +$72.5 |
 Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 223 | $0.448 | $112.62 | +$12.66 |
 Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 186.27 | $0.510 | $97.79 | +$2.79 |
 New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? | No | 74 | $0.480 | $71.19 | +$35.67 |
 Will Alibaba be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 100 | $0.520 | $2.55 | -$49.45 |
 Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? | Yes | 160 | $0.494 | $1.04 | -$77.96 |
| sell |
| 840 |
| $0.490 |
| $411.7 |
| 2d ago |
| Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?Grüne | buy | 4.08K | $0.493 | $2.01K | 2d ago |
 Will the AfD win the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary election by at least 25%?Yes | buy | 865.72 | $0.454 | $392.96 | 2d ago |
 Will SPD win between 7% and 9% of all valid second votes?Yes | buy | 498.23 | $0.555 | $276.62 | 2d ago |
 Will Grüne win at least 7% of all valid second votes?Yes | buy | 210 | $0.600 | $125.99 | 2d ago |
 Will CDU win less than 20% of all valid second votes?Yes | buy | 128.04 | $0.545 | $69.84 | 2d ago |
 Will the next Mythos-Class model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?No | buy | 181.99 | $0.701 | $127.51 | 5d ago |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?Yes | buy | 174.9 | $0.649 | $113.45 | 6d ago |
| Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 1.33K | $0.676 | $900 | 6d ago |
| Will Alibaba be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.520 | $52 | 6d ago |
 Will the next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 177.31 | $0.860 | $152.45 | 6d ago |
| Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 105.52 | $0.491 | $51.85 | 12d ago |
| Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?Yes | buy | 30 | $0.510 | $15.3 | 13d ago |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes | buy | 186.27 | $0.510 | $95 | 17d ago |
 Will Trump praise Allah again by August 31?Yes | buy | 347.15 | $0.455 | $157.79 | 18d ago |
 US bank failure by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.860 | $34.4 | 18d ago |
| US bank failure by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.850 | $34 | 18d ago |
| US bank failure by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 485.72 | $0.594 | $288.36 | 18d ago |
 Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?Yes | buy | 206.61 | $0.553 | $114.17 | 20d ago |
 Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?Yes | buy | 169.12 | $0.596 | $100.73 | 26d ago |
| Will Alibaba be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?No | buy | 468.92 | $0.546 | $255.94 | 26d ago |
| Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?Yes | buy | 200.03 | $0.394 | $78.91 | 26d ago |
| Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?No | buy | 128.36 | $0.864 | $110.91 | 26d ago |
| Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Yes | buy | 93.89 | $0.850 | $79.81 | 26d ago |
 Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes | buy | 1.27K | $0.275 | $350 | 27d ago |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes | buy | 600 | $0.513 | $307.8 | Aug 9, 2026 |
 Trump declassifies new UFO files by August 15?Yes | buy | 2.27K | $0.751 | $1.7K | Aug 7, 2026 |
 Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?Yes | buy | 160.03 | $0.439 | $70.21 | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?No | buy | 1.1K | $0.867 | $951.27 | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Yes | buy | 107.38 | $0.870 | $93.42 | Aug 7, 2026 |
 Will a Chinese company have one of the top 5 AI models by December 31?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.840 | $42 | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Will a Chinese company have one of the top 5 AI models by December 31?Yes | buy | 4.95K | $0.471 | $2.33K | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?No | buy | 449.89 | $0.729 | $327.82 | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?Yes | buy | 1.39K | $0.805 | $1.12K | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Spain vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceArgentina | buy | 144.21 | $0.415 | $59.85 | Jul 19, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic announce permanent paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 24, 2026?Yes | buy | 1.07K | $0.654 | $699.46 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic announce permanent paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 101.57 | $0.630 | $63.97 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?Yes | buy | 277.71 | $0.735 | $204.24 | Jul 18, 2026 |
 Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Yes | sell | 1.43K | $0.992 | $1.42K | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Yes | buy | 1.43K | $0.630 | $900 | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?Yes | buy | 2.46 | $0.640 | $1.57 | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Yes | buy | 775.8 | $0.488 | $378.62 | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?Yes | buy | 2.08K | $0.491 | $1.02K | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12?Yes | buy | 34.9 | $0.739 | $25.78 | Jul 12, 2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by July 31?Yes | buy | 502.96 | $0.377 | $189.41 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?Yes | buy | 12.2 | $0.820 | $10 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?Yes | buy | 6.1 | $0.820 | $5 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?Yes | buy | 6 | $0.820 | $4.92 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| US bank failure by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 19 | $0.774 | $14.7 | Jul 10, 2026 |